Lately, the logic behind US President Donald Trump’s behavior has become clearer
Initially, his outrageous statements caused considerable concern among people of good will, but at the same time, they dulled Putin’s vigilance, who eventually believed in his own greatness and that he could outsmart Trump and force him to act in Russia’s interests. Now it is becoming clear that US policy is changing dramatically. This is because the President, who promised to make America great again and is not keeping his word, is taking a big risk. And this risk extends not only to himself, but also to the entire Republican Party, which brought Donald Trump to power. Therefore, he will be forced to take into account the position of the overwhelming majority of his voters, who are by no means sympathetic to Russia. Trump will act exclusively in their interests, regardless of his personal attitude to Russia and Putin.
Today, we see that Donald Trump’s behavior has awakened Europe, which has begun to worry about its own security and has expressed a desire to buy weapons from America and transfer them to Ukraine. This fully satisfies representatives of the US military-industrial complex, who, as we know, significantly supported Trump in the presidential election. This will also have a positive impact on the US economy, which will also add political points to the current master of the White House.
Next, we can expect Donald Trump to only increase pressure on Putin, as this is what the conservative majority of voters, who make up the main electoral base of both Trump and the Republicans, expect from the US President.
Today, Donald Trump issued an ultimatum to Putin and gave him 50 days to resolve the issue of the war against Ukraine. If the Russian president does not understand this message from the US President, the continuation of the war will further exhaust Russia, and ultimately Ukraine will receive all the weapons it needs and will be able to properly repel Russian military aggression.
In this case, Donald Trump will be able to claim that he has pacified Putin and forced him to make peace, but on Trump’s terms, not Russia’s, and taking into consideration Ukraine’s interests. Obviously, this will bring significant political dividends to both Donald Trump and the US Republican Party, giving them a chance to retain their majority and remain in power. That is why Donald Trump cannot, a priori, leave Ukraine on its own with the aggressor, as this would mean that he has lost to Putin. Under such circumstances, America’s influence in the world would be significantly reduced and its international status would decline. Besides, this would deal a painful blow to Trump’s personal ambitions and significantly reduce not only his electoral base, but also significantly affect the number of supporters of the Republican Party, which would significantly affect the balance of political forces in the USA, Therefore, Donald Trump and his supporters will do their best to retain voters’ sympathy and prevent their political rivals from returning to power.
Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute of Global Politics
