Europe Is at War!
Since September, Russia has stepped up its air incursions to test Europe’s defenses;
Putin’s warning against NATO enlargement, made in 2007, is now gaining full meaning;
Eastern European countries are actively strengthening their collective defense systems;
Russia’s hybrid strategy threatens the international order established eight decades ago.
Since the beginning of September, there have been several incursions of Russian aircraft into European airspace – in Poland, Romania, Estonia, Denmark and Norway. We are under pressure. Although the origin of some of these incursions has not yet been confirmed, it is clear that Moscow is the initiator of these maneuvers directed against our security. This method, which was already used in Soviet times, aims to find out the European countries’ capability of making decisions and acting, and, more broadly – to determine their defense resources.
Russia’s Warning in 2007
Did Europe assess the war that Russia has been waging against it since long before February 24, 2022? Russia’s confrontation with Europe and the West in general began with the outbreak of the war in Georgia in 2008. Speaking from the rostrum in Munich in February 2007, the Russian president outlined his vision of security in Europe: “It seems obvious to me that NATO enlargement has nothing to do with the modernization of the Alliance or with security in Europe. On the contrary, it is a provocation that undermines mutual trust, and we can legitimately ask ourselves against whom this expansion is directed.” On that day in 2007, Vladimir Putin laid down all the principles that would later guide Russian diplomacy. At the time, his speech was quickly dismissed and underestimated by Western leaders, but now it is more relevant than ever.
Hybrid Warfare
European leaders need to open their eyes very quickly: Europe has long been facing a hybrid war waged by Russia. The goal of hybrid warfare is to destabilize and discredit the enemy, to cast doubt on him, without resorting to direct armed conflict with conventional forces. The Russians are well aware of their military weakness in the face of NATO and “are using the entire toolbox, from influencing political discussions to cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, to sabotage on a significant scale,” – Thomas Haldenwang, former chief of German intelligence, explains to Politico.
The eastern flank of the European Union is already preparing for war: the countries next to the Ukrainian front, to Belarus and Russia, have already decided to significantly strengthen their power. Poland and the Baltic states are implementing both national and transnational initiatives to prepare for a possible conflict with Russia.
The Law of the Strongest
The Russian threat is becoming more and more tangible, and the scenario of aggression is becoming clearer. At the same time, American military solidarity under the NATO treaty is no longer guaranteed. The rule of the strongest has returned, and Russian attacks are gradually destroying the international system built over the past eighty years. It is the will of the great powers with authoritarian regimes to prevent the application of international law, especially when it interferes with the interests of these same great powers. You cannot destroy the system in one fell swoop, but you can have a very serious impact on its gradual disappearance from history.
Without international law, without multilateral institutions, we are witnessing a return to the rule of the strongest in relations between states. The West must win this hybrid war that Russia is waging, because what Putin and his allies are promoting is a system that is certainly an existential threat to the West, but also to world peace.
Olivier Védrine,
Professor, Director of the Jean Monnet Association
