Russia on Fire. How Ukraine Is Bringing Victory Closer
Ukraine is relentlessly destroying key industrial facilities and targets within Russia’s military-industrial complex, thereby undermining both Russia’s economy and its ability to continue the war. These achievements are facilitated by our successes in breaching the enemy’s air defense system. After all, Russia is no longer able to reliably secure its own territory. This gives us the opportunity to turn the tide of the war in our favor. And then there will be a chance to restore peace on Ukraine’s terms.
Recently, the effectiveness of the Ukrainian Defense Forces’ strikes against Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure and its military-industrial complex facilities has significantly increased. Moreover, due to the negative consequences of the USA and Israel’s military operation against Iran, Moscow has been unable to fully capitalize on the rise in global oil and gas prices to significantly improve the state of the Russian economy. Besides, it has faced mounting problems in weapons production, including missiles, gunpowder, and explosives. And while this has not yet become a turning point in the Russian-Ukrainian war in our favor, it does bring us significantly closer to that point. Moreover, our successes have not only military but also military-political and economic consequences for both Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, all of this deserves greater attention. Given these results, we can draw some conclusions, particularly regarding Ukraine.
Indeed, thanks to the Ukrainian Defense Forces, Russia’s air defense system has suffered critical losses and is even falling apart, ceasing to function as a unified, cohesive mechanism. At the moment, it can more or less reliably defend only Moscow and the surrounding areas. Outside of those areas, even facilities of critical importance to Russia are under constant threat of missile and drone strikes. In the future, such strikes can only increase, while Russia’s ability to provide air defense will, conversely, diminish. All of this is an objective reality.
Since the start of the war, Ukraine has destroyed over 1,300 Russian air defense systems, including air defense missile systems and short-, medium-, and long-range radars. The aggressor is unable to replace these losses, as this far exceeds its production capabilities. After all, this requires electronic and other components that Russia does not manufacture and cannot obtain in sufficient quantities from abroad due to Western sanctions. Therefore, Russia is forced to “patch up” its air defense system using only what remains after redeploying forces and assets from the interior of its territory to western regions, as well as from one sector to another. As a result, Russia’s rear area is currently virtually unprotected. This explains Ukraine’s precise strikes against targets deep within the Russian Federation’s rear.
So far, this has been achieved through the use of long-range unmanned aerial vehicles. The enemy shoots down UAVs relatively easily. But this happens less and less frequently, including during a single sortie. As a result, Russia’s air defense system becomes overloaded and fails to shoot down all airborne attack assets.
Meanwhile, Ukraine is even increasing the intensity of its use of domestically produced cruise missiles. These can carry a more powerful warhead than UAVs. In addition, their speed is several times higher. That is why it is much more difficult to intercept them. The “Flamingo” is considered the main Ukrainian cruise missile. It can deliver about a ton of explosives to the target.
Ukrainian ballistic missiles, which are currently undergoing testing, will soon enter service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This will take our strike capabilities to a whole new level, as Russian air defense systems will be virtually unable to shoot them down. Our ballistic missiles are, at the very least, on par with the Iskanders, while the Russian S-400 air defense system is inferior to its American counterpart, the Patriot.
So, in the near future, Russian airspace will open up to us – a trend already evident today. This is precisely what the aforementioned sharp increase in the effectiveness of Ukrainian airstrikes against the Russian Federation in March of this year demonstrates. The majority of these strikes targeted strategically important facilities within Russia’s oil and gas and military-industrial complexes.
For instance, in early March, a drone strike at the port of Novorossiysk set the damaged “Sheshkharis” oil terminal ablaze. The Russians partially repaired it, but some of its capacity has already been lost. Besides, a tanker carrying an oil cargo from the port of Novorossiysk was attacked in the Black Sea.
By the end of the month, five more drone strikes had been carried out on the port of Ust-Luga and two strikes on the port of Primorsk in the Baltic Sea. In Ust-Luga, the Novatek gas terminal was completely put out of commission. All facilities for the production and loading of liquefied natural gas onto tankers were damaged. Four storage tanks belonging to “Ust-Luga Oil” were also damaged. In the port of Primorsk, two oil depots were burned down. Plus, two tankers that were waiting to be loaded were damaged. At the same time, in the Mediterranean Sea near the territorial waters of Malta, the sanctioned Russian gas tanker “Arctic Metagaz” was blown up. It was sunk.
Following the events in the Black and Mediterranean Seas, tanker owners and captains began refusing to transport Russian oil and gas via the southern route. Meanwhile, the cost of such freight to Russia rose to a record high of $30 per barrel.
The situation in the Baltic Sea is no better. Two Russian tankers were seized there – one by Sweden and the other by France. Meanwhile, British Prime Minister K. Starmer has authorized the British military to inspect and detain suspicious Russian tankers in waters under London’s jurisdiction. He explained this increased pressure on Russia’s “shadow” fleet unequivocally: to prevent it from reaping windfall profits from oil exports. After all, such funds are used to finance the war against Ukraine.
Russian oil refining has also suffered. In February–April, the “Kinef” refinery in Kirishi, Leningrad region; the “Yaroslavsky” refinery in Yaroslavl region; “Bashneft-Novoyl” and “Bashneft-Ufaneftekhim” in Bashkortostan; the “Saratovsky” refinery in Saratov region; the “Afipsky” and “Tikhoretsky” refineries in the Krasnodar Territory.
Earlier, in late February, the Defence Forces of Ukraine launched a missile strike on the “Votkinsk Plant” in Udmurtia, which manufactures missiles for the “Iskander-M” tactical ballistic missile system. A “Flamingo” missile completely destroyed the forging and stamping shop. And last month, the “Kremniy-El” microelectronics plant came under the Storm Shadow missiles attack. The facility, which manufactured components for Russian missile systems, has been virtually destroyed. It was one of only two such facilities in Russia. There are no others, and there never will be. In early April of this year, in the same region, Bryansk region, the Armed Forces of Ukraine struck the “Strela” plant, which manufactures components for cruise missiles.
Devastating strikes were also delivered against Russian chemical plants. For example, in March, “TolyattiAzot” – one of the world’s largest ammonia producers, with a capacity exceeding 3 million tons per year – was attacked for the third time since December 2025. Several ammonia production facilities were put out of commission, including synthesis columns, a high-pressure gas pipeline, and one of the ammonia storage tanks.
Next in line was the industrial giant JSC “Apatit” in Cherepovets – Europe’s largest producer of phosphate fertilizers, phosphoric acid, and sulfuric acids. Those are also used in the production of explosives.
Another manufacturer of explosive components, “KuibyshevAzot”, has been added to the list. The dry ammonia production facility has been damaged. Two “Flamingo” missiles also struck the grounds of the “Promsintez” plant in Chapaevsk, Smolensk region, which serves a similar purpose. Unfortunately, the damage inflicted is not significant, but, as they say, the worst is yet to come.
In addition to the aforementioned industrial facilities, since the beginning of this year, “Nevinnomyssky Azot” in the Stavropol Territory, the Arkon Group’s ammonia plants in Smolensk region and Veliky Novgorod, as well as the Uralchem ammonia plants in Kirov region and Dorogobuzh in Smolensk region have all sustained damage to varying degrees.
Strikes by the Defence Forces of Ukraine on facilities in Russia’s oil and gas, chemical, and military-industrial complexes not only significantly hinder their operations but also have a major negative impact on the country’s entire economy, and are reducing the military-industrial complex’s capacity to produce weapons and military equipment.
As a result of the complete or partial shutdown of ports in the Baltic and Black Seas, explosions at oil refineries, and damage caused by the Russians themselves to the pumping station on the “Druzhba” oil pipeline near the Ukrainian city of Brody, Russia has lost over 40% of its oil export capacity. We are talking about at least two million barrels per day. This has a significant impact on Russia’s oil exports in its modern history. And it happened just as oil prices rose to $100 per barrel, which would have allowed Russia to improve its economic situation and secure additional resources to continue the war against Ukraine. As is well known, oil and gas revenues account for the bulk of foreign exchange earnings in Russia’s state budget. Now they have been significantly reduced.
The intensification of Ukraine’s attacks on Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure coincided with the start of the spring sowing season in its southern regions. In early March, it began in the Krasnodar Territory, and by mid-month – in Rostov region of the Russian Federation and the Stavropol Territory. There is already a fuel shortage there. To prevent a possible further escalation of this problem, the Russian government plans to reinstate the ban on fuel exports.
According to Russian politicians and economists, the situation for Russia, with the Defence Forces of Ukraine’s strikes on its oil and gas infrastructure, is at an impasse. For now, it is tactical, but it could take on a strategic and even geopolitical character.
Russia has also faced extremely serious problems in the production of missile systems. Due to the destruction of the forging and stamping shop at the “Votkinsky Plant”, the ability to manufacture key components for the “Iskander-M” tactical ballistic missile system was lost. And as a result of the virtual destruction of the “Kremny El” plant, the Russian defense industry has lost half of the microchips produced for military purposes. This has already led to a sharp reduction in the intensity of Russian missile strikes on Ukrainian territory.
UAV attacks have damaged at least 30% of Russia’s ammonia production capacity. So far, operations have not been completely halted at any of the ammonia plants. However, due to repairs and downtime, Russia has lost hundreds of thousands of tons of ammonia products. Further strikes on the Russian chemical industry will inevitably lead to a systemic production shortage, which will affect the output of military products.
Russia’s defense industry’s capacity to produce gunpowder and explosives has decreased. It is now forced to increase its purchases of these materials from China, which places an additional burden on the Russian budget. By the way, China sells military-grade products to Russia at prices several times higher than those charged to other countries…
And once Ukraine has increased its stockpile of “Flamingo” cruise missiles and developed its own ballistic missiles, we will be able to bring the Russian economy and its military-industrial complex to a complete standstill. Ukraine will even be able to strike at the centers where Russia’s criminal decisions are made, Moscow being the chief among them. Life in the Russian capital will be paralyzed as a result of the destruction of the power grid. Russia will be unable to prevent this or launch adequate retaliatory strikes. As already mentioned, it is incapable of compensating for the losses to its air defense system. And it will keep getting worse. In the very near future, the aggressor will lose the ability to manufacture long-range missiles and UAVs. The factories producing them will be destroyed. Restoring industrial capacity will not be possible, both due to new strikes from Ukraine and because Russia lacks the necessary equipment for the purpose.
The situations of Ukraine and Russia are different. Ukraine’s Western partners are supplying us with air defense systems. And the production facilities of Ukraine’s defense-industrial complex are largely located on their territory. Therefore, Russia is unable to strike them. No one is providing Russia with air defense systems. And its defense-industrial complex enterprises in the European part of the country are already within range of Ukrainian missiles and UAVs, or will soon be there.
All of the circumstances described above can be seen as the foundation for Ukraine’s victory in the war. Or, at the very least, they can help bring the war to a close on Ukraine’s terms. People in Russia are beginning to realize this, and some of its citizens are starting to openly acknowledge it, including members of the Z-propaganda community. So far, they have mainly criticized only the Russian military command, which is unable to provide the country with reliable air defense. But one way or another, this undermines the authority of Putin’s entire regime and weakens his political position. This complements the efforts of certain Russian political-oligarchic forces that are launching a campaign to remove him from power. And Ukrainian strikes will finish him off for good.
Thus, Ukraine is gradually making progress in turning the tide of the war with Russia in our favor. Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have already managed to inflict heavy losses on the enemy’s air defense system, as a result of which the RF is no longer capable of reliably protecting its territory.
These developments enable the Ukrainian Defense Forces to strike at key sectors of Russia’s economy and its military-industrial complex. This primarily refers to Russia’s oil and gas infrastructure and enterprises producing missile components and explosives.
Ukraine’s successful actions are undermining the aggressor’s economy and military capabilities. This reduces its ability to continue the war. In turn, this creates an opportunity for our country to achieve a victory that could force Russia to accept Ukraine’s terms for ending the war.
Yurii Mykhailenko,
Institute for Global Politics
