SUMMARY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE MILITARY-POLITICAL SITUATION IN THE WORLD IN 2025 IN THE CONTEXT OF UKRAINE’S NATIONAL INTERESTS
Part 4
Europe
In 2025, the military-political situation in Europe was largely determined by the transition from illusions about the reliability of its security under US protection to the realization of a real attack by Russia and the need to strengthen own European defense. These changes were the result of actions taken by Russia and the USA regarding European security and forced Europe to respond accordingly.
Thus, Russia, unable to achieve its desired goals in Ukraine, began to experience negative political and economic consequences. Therefore, it sharply increased pressure on Europe not to support Ukraine and not to impose new sanctions. To this end, the RF’s leadership is using a wide range of measures to intimidate Europe, including blackmail, demonstrations of military force, all sorts of provocations, and well-known forms of “hybrid warfare”. The most resonant incidents were the incursions of Russian UAVs and combat aircraft into the airspace of European countries, as well as the deliberate damage to underwater infrastructure in the Baltic Sea.
At the same time, the increased threat from China has forced the USA to devote more resources to defending its interests in the Asia-Pacific (Indo-Pacific) region. In order to strengthen its military presence there, the USA could, of course, deploy its new units. But increasing the size of the armed forces would require additional funds, which contradicts D. Trump’s policy of reducing government spending. Therefore, he began to demand that Europe take a new approach to its security.
First and foremost, this means increasing defense spending by European NATO countries to 5% of GDP. This would strengthen Europe’s defense almost threefold, as by 2025 most of those countries were allocating less than 2% of GDP to military needs, as recommended by NATO. Despite the aggressive nature of Russian policy and the war in Ukraine, European leaders and their societies did not believe that Russia would dare to attack Europe. Therefore, both the EU leadership and the leaders of many European countries initially reacted negatively to the USA’s demands. In response, D. Trump began to threaten that the USA might withdraw from NATO. Then Europe, in order not to find itself on its own with Russia, had to change its position. That is, to stop hoping for the inviolability of stability and peace and agree with the need to prepare for war.
Within the EU, active consultations and negotiations on the principles of building a new Euro-Atlantic and European security system began in February-March 2025. This mainly took place in the format of NATO summits and EU Council meetings at different levels. As a rule, EU representatives participated in North Atlantic Alliance events, while NATO representatives took part in the European Union’s events.
Issues discussed included the redistribution of functions between the USA and Europe in the security sphere, establishing cooperation between NATO and the EU in defense construction, rearming European countries, and developing their defense industries. Special attention was paid to the adequate financial support for such activities.
The relevant decisions were taken at the highest level during the NATO summit in The Hague and at the European Council meeting in Brussels in June 2025. They made it possible to resolve the main differences between the USA and Europe on the principles of ensuring Euro-Atlantic and European security and to move on to practical actions.
According to those decisions, the new Euro-Atlantic and European security system provides for a redistribution of functions between the USA and Europe. Thus, the USA is to contain China at the global level and in the Asia-Pacific region, while Europe is to counter Russia. At this, the USA remains the main guarantor of Europe’s strategic nuclear security and assists it in countering Russia in the European theater of operations.
Within this framework, at the strategic level, the USA (together with France and the UK, which also have strategic nuclear weapons) will continue to play a leading role in nuclear deterrence of Russia and China. Cooperation between them in peacetime and wartime will continue to take place through the NATO Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), as well as through the US Strategic Command and the relevant bodies of national armed forces of France and the UK.
At the same time, the USA will retain its leading role in NATO’s tactical nuclear component in the European theater of operations and will carry out tasks together with the UK and France, as well as other NATO member states which do not have nuclear weapons but may participate in their use.
Despite the redistribution of functions between the USA and Europe, the North Atlantic Alliance will remain the main military component of the Euro-Atlantic and European security system. It will be managed by NATO’s military-political structures and command bodies. The European Union will take on the functions of financial, economic, and military-technical support for European defense, as well as solving specific military tasks. To manage these functions, the EU has introduced the position of Commissioner for Defense. In addition, the European Defense Agency, which coordinates the activities of the military industry, will remain in place.
The USA will maintain its military presence in Europe and can rapidly increase it if necessary. This could be in response to signs that Russia is preparing to attack Europe. US plans to redeploy its troops from the European to the Asia-Pacific theater of operations will be coordinated with NATO command and EU leadership. US commitments on this issue may be included in the updated North Atlantic Treaty.
The transformation of NATO and the EU in accordance with the new principles is being carried out on the basis of the provisions of the joint document “Preserving Peace – Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030”, which was adopted in October this year. Among other things, it provides for:
creation of new structures necessary for the integration of Finland and Sweden into NATO as the Alliance’s forward edge in Northern Europe. A decision has been made to deploy a new NATO Joint Military Command North, which will include a combined force of Norway, Finland, and Sweden. It will be responsible for Northern Europe. No significant changes to the overall structure of the Alliance are planned;
strengthening the forward presence of NATO forces in Europe. The process of transforming NATO’s multinational battlegroups in the Baltic States and Central and South-Eastern Europe from battalions to brigades will continue. Another such group is being deployed in Finland;
improvement of the air defense system, which should strengthen countermeasures against UAVs and Russian missiles. NATO and the EU are working together to implement a program to create a European air shield, which includes two interrelated projects: “Eastern Sentry” and “European Wall of Drones”;
improving military mobility. By 2027, it is planned to create a so-called “military Schengen” with harmonized rules and a network of routes for the rapid movement of troops and equipment throughout Europe. This issue is being addressed by the EU, which is negotiating with European countries to simplify border crossing conditions and is implementing a number of programs to modernize railways and roads in Europe;
deployment of the European Union’s own rapid response force, EU RDC. The total strength of the EU RDC is set at 5,000 troops. They are to work closely with NATO’s Response Forces, which will be a significant step in ensuring Europe’s ability to respond quickly and decisively in the event of a crisis. The EU RDC will be primarily responsible for civil response to man-made catastrophes and natural disasters;
strengthening the borders of NATO and EU member states with Russia and Belarus. This is being done by strengthening its protection by national border authorities, as well as involving the armed forces and territorial defense in border tasks. At the same time, Poland has launched the Eastern Shield program, and the Baltic states have launched the Baltic Defense Line program, which combine modern surveillance and electronic warfare capabilities with advanced engineering barriers. Finland and Norway, in turn, are setting up minefields on their borders with Russia.
development of a system to counter hybrid warfare and cyber attacks from Russia. Today, it consists of the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Finland and the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (NATO CCD COE) in Estonia.
The creation of a new European and Euro-Atlantic security system by the USA and the EU is ensured by adequate funding. At the NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, Alliance member states agreed to increase their defense spending to 5% of GDP.
In March of the same year, the EU leadership adopted the “White Paper on European Defense – Readiness 2030 / ReArm Europe Plan”. It identifies priority areas for allocating funds to strengthen European security, as well as sources of funding. The “ReArm Europe Plan” provides for the allocation of €800 billion for the production of weapons and the development of the European defense industry.
To finance these needs, a new European fund, Security Action for Europe (SAFE), has been created with a volume of EUR 150 billion ($168 billion). It is replenished by joint borrowing and provides long-term loans to EU members and a number of other countries, primarily Ukraine, for initiatives to strengthen their defense and develop the European military industry.
In addition, it is planned to expand the financing of defense and security projects using the resources of the European Investment Bank and attracting private capital through the Savings and Investment Union (SIU).
Ukraine, with its most powerful Armed Forces in Europe and its experience and motivation in military confrontation with Russia, has a special place in the new European and Euro-Atlantic security system. Ukraine is considered by the USA and Europe to be one of the main forces in deterring Russian military expansion in Europe.
Currently, within the European theater of operations, Ukraine already serves as the front line on NATO’s southern flank in Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, and the Black Sea region. In fact, it protects its neighboring NATO and EU countries from Russia’s ground invasion and air attacks. This is already taken into account in the strategic and operational plans of NATO and the USA. In particular, Ukraine’s protection of NATO’s southern flank allows the Alliance to redirect some of its forces to the northern flank, namely the Baltic and Arctic regions, where there is a real threat of direct military confrontation between the Alliance and Russia.
At the same time, the USA has gained the opportunity to gradually reduce its military presence on the southern flank of the European theater of operations and reorient some of its forces toward the Asia-Pacific region to contain China. In other words, Ukraine is also contributing to the realization of US geopolitical interests.
Based on the above circumstances, it can be argued that Europe and the USA are quite interested in Ukraine remaining a strong, independent European country and integrating into the Euro-Atlantic and European security system. This is currently happening in practice.
The main areas of such actions are: the inclusion of Ukraine in the strategic and operational plans of the US Armed Forces and NATO; exchange of intelligence data; deepening the integration of Ukraine’s and NATO’s air defense systems; logistical support for Ukraine; connecting Ukraine to the pan-European military mobility space; providing financial assistance to Ukraine in its military confrontation with Russia and strengthening its defense.
Currently, these measures are complemented by guarantees of Ukraine’s post-war security. During a meeting of representatives of the Coalition of the Willing on January 6, 2026, in Paris, agreement was reached on the principles of such guarantees, which include:
creation of US-led mechanisms for monitoring and verifying the ceasefire;
continuing long-term support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will remain the first line of defense and deterrence against Russia;
commitment to provide assistance to Ukraine in case of a renewed Russian attack. These will include legally binding guarantees from the US;
deployment of multinational deterrent forces in Ukraine, which will be supported from neighboring countries.
All this will demonstrate Ukraine’s deeper integration into the Euro-Atlantic and European security system and its consolidation in Europe. At the same time, Ukraine and Europe will have powerful tools to counter Russia.
While addressing the challenges of strengthening European security, the EU leadership continued to work in other areas. These included preparing for further enlargement of the Organization and developing relations with partners.
For example, at the meeting of the EU General Affairs Council in December 2025, the activities of candidate countries for accession to the European Union were summarized, in particular, their compliance with the criteria for such membership. In addition, an assessment was made of the European aspirations of the EU’s partners. The EU recognized Ukraine’s successful steps towards European integration, despite Russia’s ongoing war against it. Positive conclusions were also made regarding Moldova. Therefore, the readiness of Ukraine and Moldova to begin negotiations on accession to the European Union was pointed out.
The achievements of Montenegro, which has closed 12 negotiation clusters, were also confirmed. Hopes were expressed that it would be able to close all other clusters in the near future. The integration efforts of Albania, which has opened all six negotiation clusters and is conducting a successful dialogue with the EU, were welcomed.
The EU Council welcomed Serbia’s European integration aspirations, which remain its strategic goal. At the same time, the European Union called on Serbia to confirm this more clearly not only with words but also with actions. The position of North Macedonia, which continues to move towards European integration, was welcomed. However, in the EU’s view, it needs to speed up the reform process. Hopes were also expressed that Bosnia and Herzegovina would implement the EU’s recommendations for the start of negotiations.
The EU leadership believes that enlargement of the organization is important and will make a significant contribution to European peace, security, stability, and prosperity in the 21st century. This process will continue and will be based on the merits and achievements of each candidate.
The EU paid special attention to developments around the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, which is one of the sources of instability in Europe. Brussels supported US peace efforts in the Middle East, which became a point of intersection between their interests. This issue directly concerns Ukraine, as the suspension of hostilities between Israel and Hamas and Iran in the summer of 2025 is seen by the USA and Europe as a precedent for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war.
The European Union welcomed the decision of the High-Level Conference in July 2025 in New York on a peaceful settlement of the situation around Palestine and creation of an independent Palestinian state. At the same time, the EU consistently condemned Israel’s excessive use of force in Palestine and advocated for the unhindered delivery of humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.
Along with this, the EU contributed to stabilizing the situation in the Middle East. In particular, the European Union Border Assistance Mission continued to provide assistance at the Rafah border crossing point (EUBAM Rafah), while the European Union Police Mission did so in the Palestinian territories (EUPOL COPPS). Their expansion is planned for 2026.
Africa is of great importance to the European Union. The EU’s interests in this region concern: economic cooperation (trade, investment, access to resources); promoting sustainable development (green and digital transition, renewable energy sources); strategic partnership and the promotion of democracy.
A separate goal of the EU with regard to Africa is to promote peace in the region, which also has a significant impact on stability in Europe. This mainly refers to refugees and migrants from conflict zones in Africa, as well as areas that are becoming uninhabitable due to worsening environmental problems and climate change. In addition, wars and conflicts hinder African countries in developing trade and economic cooperation with the EU.
A key event in this cooperation between Europe and Africa (countries in the region) was the European Union-African Union (AU) summit in Angola in November 2025. The participants of the event reaffirmed their commitment to the international order based on the rules and principles of the UN Charter and their interest in multilateral development, and also spoke out in favor of the need to establish a just, comprehensive, and lasting peace in Ukraine, Palestine, Sudan, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Sahel, and Somalia.
During the summit, a range of issues were discussed concerning cooperation between the EU and the AU in fields such as trade, investment, energy, transport, and digital technologies; deepening cooperation on peacebuilding, security, and governance in Africa; implementing the principles of multilateralism; migration and mobility.
EU and AU leaders confirmed the importance of establishing trade relations between Europe and Africa, which contributes to the economic development of both sides and strengthens their political relations. The EU is currently Africa’s main trading partner, ahead of China, India, and the USA. The EU has concluded preferential trade agreements with 19 countries and accounts for over 90% of its exports.
At the same time, the successful implementation of the EUR 150 billion Global Gateway Africa-Europe investment package was discussed, which is expected to attract public and private funds to stimulate investment and improve the investment and business climate in African countries. Work in this direction will continue to be one of the key aspects of cooperation between the EU and the AU.
The summit participants welcomed the EU’s efforts to ensure stability in Africa, which include the implementation of the provisions of the Common Security and Defense Policy in this area, as well as the allocation of funds for relevant measures through the European Peace Fund. The EU currently has 12 civilian and military missions and operations in Africa aimed at preventing and resolving conflicts, establishing peace, and strengthening international security and stability through the European Peace Facility (EPF).
Another area of the EU’s external activity has been the development of relations with the Asia-Pacific region, which is one of the centres of Europe’s economic interests alongside the USA and China. Thus, on the sidelines of the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in November 2025, the 4th Asia-Pacific (Indo-Pacific) Ministerial Forum was held with the participation of EU foreign ministers and ASEAN member countries. Plans to build a sustainable, prosperous, and secure future for Europe and the Asia-Pacific region were discussed.
The EU Council approved conclusions on the implementation of the European Union Strategy for Cooperation in the Asia-Pacific Region, which was launched in 2021. The focus is on three main areas of cooperation, which include security and defense, green and digital transition, and trade and economy.
According to the EU Council, the European Union and the Asia-Pacific region are facing increasingly complex challenges related to Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine, ongoing tensions in the South China Sea and East China Sea, and the threat of the PRC’s attack on Taiwan. At the same time, concern was expressed about the current situation in Afghanistan and Myanmar.
The European Union’s activities in these areas were accompanied by measures to develop the European economy. The key tasks of the EU leadership in this area were:
strengthening the competitiveness of the EU economy. Financial support was increased for measures to carry out scientific and technical research, prioritize the development of innovative and high-tech industries (primarily artificial intelligence, space, and quantum technologies), and train highly qualified personnel;
strengthening the single European market. This was implemented as part of the Single Market Strategy, which includes a set of measures for conducting a common financial and economic policy, expanding trade ties and removing barriers to them, and integrating the physical infrastructure of markets and energy systems;
increasing Europe’s energy independence. This became particularly relevant in connection with Russia’s transition to an openly aggressive course, which increased threats to EU security from Russia and necessitated the abandonment of Russian energy carriers. In this regard, a decision was made to completely give up Russian energy carriers by 2027, and its implementation has begun;
ensuring food security in the context of the negative impact of climate change on agriculture in Europe and the world. The EU leadership allocated additional funds to support farming in EU countries and took measures to stimulate investment in agriculture and increase exports of European agricultural products;
improving and optimizing investment conditions. First and foremost, this included reducing restrictions on foreign investment, simplifying bureaucratic procedures, and applying more reliable guarantees for the return of invested funds and income from them. In addition, efforts were made to bring the European Union’s investment policy (main areas of investment) into line with its political priorities.
At the same time, there were some problems in the European Union that made it difficult to pursue a coordinated policy, including with regard to Ukraine. This mainly refers to the actions of the Hungarian and Slovakian leaderships, which hold pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian positions and are trying to block EU decisions to strengthen Europe’s defense capabilities, provide assistance to Ukraine, and exert pressure on Russia. The reason for this was the personal interests of the Prime Ministers of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, and Slovakia, Robert Fico, and their governments, which are corrupt by nature and oriented toward Russia on this issue. In addition, it cannot be ruled out that they may be controlled by Russian special services. And after the victory in the Czech elections in October 2025, there is also the Eurosceptic ANO movement led by Andrej Babiš, who became Prime Minister and pursues a similar policy. However, the zeal of pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian forces in the Czech Republic is restrained by President Petr Pavel. In this situation, V. Orbán tried to create an anti-Ukrainian alliance between Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, but he failed to do so.
Right-wing and Eurosceptic sentiments are also spreading in the countries of old Europe, leading to the strengthening of the political forces that express them. An example of this is the attempt by right-wing and left-wing parties in France to weaken the position of President E. Macron. In September 2025, parties of this kind in the French Parliament joined forces and passed a vote of no confidence in the current government. However, E. Macron has so far managed to control the situation. He appointed a new government made up of more reliable politicians who are continuing his course.
At the same time, the EU leadership has managed to find mechanisms to overcome the above-mentioned problems, which has made it possible to preserve its unity and implement all important decisions.
In a word, the efforts made by the EU leadership have led to successes in strengthening European security and defense, as well as in the common foreign policy and economic development of the European Union. The EU still had internal problems, but they were largely eliminated. The EU’s policy towards Ukraine was positive and contributed to increasing its capabilities in confronting Russia and deepening European integration.
Yurii Mykhailenko,
Institute for Global Politics
