{"id":28888,"date":"2025-04-22T08:00:14","date_gmt":"2025-04-22T05:00:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=28888"},"modified":"2025-04-28T18:17:20","modified_gmt":"2025-04-28T15:17:20","slug":"rozpodil-svitu-mizh-ssha-rosiyeyu-ta-kitayem","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/en\/publikacii\/rozpodil-svitu-mizh-ssha-rosiyeyu-ta-kitayem\/","title":{"rendered":"The division of the World Between the United States, Russia and China"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1 style=\"text-align: justify;\">The Division of the World Between the United States, russia and China and Moscow\u2019s Attack on Europe. Myth or Reality?<\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify; padding-left: 80px;\"><em>According to Western experts, there is currently a real possibility of the division of the world between the United States, Russia and China, as well as Moscow\u2019s attack on Europe. All this may indeed happen, but such prospects are deliberately exaggerated by the Kremlin propaganda in order to strengthen Russia\u2019s bargaining position and put pressure on Europe. In case &nbsp;Moscow does decide to attack Europe, it would have disastrous consequences for Russia itself. However, Putin\u2019s regime may go for it, which is why the issue of strengthening Europe\u2019s security involving Ukraine remains relevant.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In April this year, the American edition of Newsweek published an article entitled <strong>\u201cHow Trump, Putin and Xi Could Carve up the Globe\u201d<\/strong>. The main idea of this publication is to emphasize the possibility of&nbsp; the United States, Russia and China&nbsp; leaders\u2019 reaching an agreement on the division of spheres of influence in the world. In this case, Washington could get all of North America and Greenland, Moscow \u2013 Europe and Central Asia, and Beijing \u2013 Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Such conclusions are based on several assumptions allegedly derived from the nature of the situation in the world and the negotiations themselves to end Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine. Thus, according to the author of the article, who refers to different political analysts, \u201c&#8230; the process to end the war has echoes of the Yalta conference in 1945 between the USA, the &nbsp;United Kingdom&nbsp; and&nbsp; the USSR that preceded the Cold War division of Europe.\u201d<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In favor of this, a number of maxims presented as undeniable truths are cited. According to them:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>Trump relies on the Western Hemisphere and may abandon Europe to its fate;<\/li>\n<li>Russia\u2019s next targets of expansion may be Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where it has considerable influence;<\/li>\n<li>China is strengthening its dominance in Southeast Asia and the Asia-Pacific region, which is happening with the United States\u2019 tacit consent.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Such assessments are quite consistent with the panic mood of many European experts who predict&nbsp; Russia\u2019s attack on Europe in the near future. In this regard, the article by German historian S. Neitzel from the University of Potsdam <strong>\u201cThe Last Summer of War!\u201d <\/strong>stands out, where he admits the possibility of Moscow\u2019s military invasion of Europe this autumn. In his opinion, such a threat is confirmed by the plans of Russia and Belarus to hold strategic command and personnel exercises (SCPE) \u201cZapad-2025\u201d in September \u2013 October 2025.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And this is only the most resonant tip of such thoughts and views, which are now becoming dominant in nature. And those who disagree with them are accused of misunderstanding the situation and even of imposing pro-Russian views. Therefore, it is worthwhile to understand the state of affairs in this sphere. And the issues raised are directly related to Ukraine.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit1.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-TgqtBINn\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-28895\" src=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit1.png 300w, https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit1-45x45.png 45w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Let&#8217;s start with the <strong>possible division of the world between the United States, Russia and the PRC<\/strong>. All of them still seek to expand their sphere of influence. And it is happening, but not as it was mentioned above. Yes, only equal parties can divide something equally. Right now, that\u2019s the USA and China. And they actually divide the world both globally and in the Asia-Pacific region (The USA is not particularly interested in Southeast Asia, so&nbsp; it can &nbsp;actually give it &nbsp;to China). Russia is of secondary importance to both the USA and China. Therefore, no one is going to share anything with it. Especially since the United States and China are, as the saying goes, in the same weight category, while Russia is in a completely different one, i.e. one that simply cannot be equated.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In particular, in 2024, the gross domestic product of the USA amounted to about $28 trillion, that of China \u2013 to $18 trillion, of Russia \u2013 $2 trillion. At the same time, neither the USA nor China are in any way dependent on Russia. What can we talk about when Russia\u2019s share in the US foreign trade turnover is less than 1 %, and in China\u2019s \u2013 2.5 %. What &nbsp;Russia supplies, they can get from other countries. This was demonstrated last year when Moscow refused to supply the USA with enriched uranium, and China came under secondary sanctions from America for continuing trade ties with Russia. In addition, in recent years, Russia has effectively become a satellite of China and, by and large, its colony. And how can one say otherwise when Russia is completely tied to China as its raw materials appendage and a market for second-rate goods. Moreover, Russia &nbsp;will never change this state of affairs. So why would Beijing share anything with Moscow in such a situation?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The only thing that puts Russia on par with the United States and China is its nuclear potential, which is equal to that of the United States and is slightly superior to that of China. However, in reality this &nbsp;gives Moscow nothing, since if it is used, it will receive no less response and will be destroyed. Therefore, regardless of &nbsp;how inadequate the Putin regime may be and no matter how much it seeks to intimidate its adversaries with its nuclear weapons, it is unlikely to start a nuclear war.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But it can indeed start a conventional war, as evidenced by its full-scale attack on Ukraine in 2022. This is Moscow\u2019s way of trying to get the USA to divide the world with it. And the point here is not so much Ukraine itself, which may or may not be of particular importance to the USA, but the threat of Russian aggression against Europe, that is, against America\u2019s strategic ally, despite all the current contradictions between them. Exactly such a variant should be confirmed by &nbsp;the aforementioned SCPE of the Armed Forces of Russia and Belarus \u201cZapad-2025\u201d. Therefore, this exercise &nbsp;requires special attention.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit5.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-TgqtBINn\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-28896\" src=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit5.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit5.png 300w, https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit5-45x45.png 45w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Russia has been conducting exercises of the \u201cZapad\u201d type together with its ally Belarus since the late 1999s. The aim is to put pressure on Europe and the United States by demonstrating military power and willingness to use it. The&nbsp; scenario of the exercise provides for mastering all elements of the preparation and course of a war between Russia and the USA\/NATO in the European theater of military operations with its escalation into a nuclear-missile phase. According to this scenario, a set of actual tasks is being fulfilled, in particular:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>deployment of groups of troops and fleets of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the European theater of military operations in the Baltic, Central European, Black Sea and Arctic regions or on the North-Western, Western, South-Western and Northern directions;<\/li>\n<li>conducting strategic offensive operations on the North-Western and Western directions, as well as strategic defensive operations on the South-Western and Northern directions;<\/li>\n<li>the use of tactical and strategic nuclear weapons in case of defeat at the front and the threat of Russia losing its critical territories.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The strategic offensive operation envisages:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>at least the capture of the Baltic States and part of Poland;<\/li>\n<li>at best the invasion of other countries of Central and Eastern Europe, Western Europe, Finland and Norway.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The main direction of strike would be the so-called Suwalki corridor, which runs from Belarus to the Russian Kaliningrad region along the border between Poland and Lithuania. Other options are also possible.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Within the framework of strategic defense operations it is planned:<\/p>\n<ul style=\"text-align: justify;\">\n<li>to repulse possible offensive actions of the US Armed Forces and NATO Armed Forces against Russia in the Western Arctic and Karelia and in the Black Sea regions. Special attention is paid to the defense of the Russian Northern Fleet bases in&nbsp; Murmansk region and annexed Crimea;<\/li>\n<li>local strikes against Finland and Norway, as well as missile strikes on the territory of the countries of Northern Europe;<\/li>\n<li>obstructing US\/NATO maritime traffic in the Atlantic and northern seas.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the past, &nbsp;the bulk of the exercise took place on the territory of the Western Military District of the Russian Armed Forces. Separate exercise tasks of a somewhat smaller scale were also carried out in the Southern Military District. Besides, forces and means from other military districts, the Aerospace Forces, airborne troops, naval forces and other forces were involved.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Now, instead of the Western Military District, the Moscow and Leningrad Military Districts, which were created on its basis, will become the main areas of the SCPE. At the same time, the factor of Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine will be taken into account, even if the hostilities cease by that time. The tasks of offensive and active defense on the front in Ukraine will be performed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In parallel with demonstrating&nbsp;&nbsp; force &nbsp;to the United States and Europe, the \u201cZapad\u201d exercises were used by Russia to prepare an attack on Ukraine. For example, the \u201cZapad-2013\u201d exercise perfected plans for a military invasion of Ukraine, which were partially realized in 2014. And during the \u201cZapad-2021\u201d exercise, they tested a scenario of a full-scale war against Ukraine, which Moscow launched a few months after the exercise \u2013 in February 2022. Besides, at the end of the exercise, strike groups of the Russian Armed Forces were formed on the territory of Russia and Belarus.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In other words, the \u201cZapad-2025\u201d SCPE may indeed be used by Moscow to cover preparations for an attack on Europe and a new invasion of Ukraine from the north. That is why this is of serious concern both in Europe and Ukraine. Moreover, according to some reports, Moscow was planning to attack Lithuania, not Ukraine, in the early 2020s. And only the threat of a direct military clash with the USA and NATO forced Russia to abandon the Lithuanian option and resort to the Ukrainian one. This raises a very reasonable question: will Russia be able to realize such plans in practice? To answer this question, it is necessary to conduct a rather complex analysis of the situation. However, we will take into account only the most important factor \u00ad \u2013 &nbsp;the balance of forces and means of the parties.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit6.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-TgqtBINn\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-28897\" src=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit6.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit6.png 300w, https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit6-45x45.png 45w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>Contrary to popular belief, the situation is not at all in Russia\u2019s favor. Poland\u2019s Armed Forces include five deployed mechanized divisions and one under formation, as well as two airborne brigades. This is at least equal to two armies of the Russian Armed Forces fighting against Ukraine. In addition, the 5th Army Corps of the US &nbsp;Armed Forces and the multinational rapid deployment corps \u201cNortheast\u201d of the NATO Armed Forces are stationed on the territory of Poland. And these are two more equivalents of &nbsp;two &nbsp;armies. The armed forces of the Baltic States can be counted as two divisions. Taking into account NATO troops on their territory, this roughly corresponds to one Russian army.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">That is, the forces of the first echelon of the NATO Armed Forces in Poland and the Baltic States roughly correspond to five armies of the Russian Armed Forces. Based on the classical principles of military science, the attacker must have at least a threefold advantage. In this case, it would &nbsp;require Russia to concentrate up to 15&nbsp; armies on the Western and North-Western directions.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Let\u2019s count in &nbsp;Moscow\u2019s adventurism in making military decisions. But even in this case it must have at least equal forces, that is, at least five armies. And that is not all. Given the consequences of the war unleashed against Ukraine, Russia would have to employ at least ten more brigades of the Rosgvardia to maintain control over the occupied territories. At present, Russia does not possess even such seemingly modest resources, as most of its armed forces are engaged in the war with Ukraine. And everything the Rosgvardia could spare is stuck in the occupied territories.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Theoretically, the Russians would &nbsp;be able to free up the necessary forces for an offensive against Europe by ending the war against Ukraine. But Russia, one way or another, would &nbsp;be forced to keep powerful groups of its troops on the border with Ukraine. Therefore, Russia would &nbsp;not be able to attack Europe in the near future without announcing a general mobilization. However, this would devastate the Russian economy, which is already experiencing a severe labor shortage.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And that is not all.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit4.png\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-TgqtBINn\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-28898\" src=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit4.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"300\" height=\"300\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit4.png 300w, https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/svit4-45x45.png 45w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 300px) 100vw, 300px\" \/><\/a>New formations and units would have to be formed and trained, which would require considerable time and money, including weapons, military equipment, ammunition and various gear.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Russia is currently experiencing problems in supplying its troops on the frontline in Ukraine. An example of this is the lack of armored vehicles in the Russian army, which are lost on the battlefield and cannot be replenished in the necessary quantity. The same applies to missiles, as evidenced by the decrease in their use since the beginning of the war. Moreover, Russia is not capable of &nbsp;producing the necessary number of conventional shells, and therefore receives them from North Korea.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Finally, despite the fact that Russia has an advantage over Ukraine, its achievements on the frontline are not impressive at all. As we know, in 2024, Russian forces were limited to advancing in a strip about 50 kilometers wide and the same depth. But even this cost Russia critical losses, which significantly reduced its combat capabilities. How would &nbsp;it attack Europe after all this? Especially given the aforementioned balance of forces&#8230; And also the qualitative superiority of Western weapons over Russian ones, as demonstrated by Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine. At the same time, unlike the &nbsp;Armed Forces of Ukraine, the US and NATO Armed Forces would &nbsp;have no restrictions on their use, including missile strikes on Russian territory to a greater depth.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And for Poland and the Baltic states, the entire North Atlantic Alliance would &nbsp;enter the war with Russia, which is stipulated by the collective defense obligations of the Alliance members. Again, we will limit ourselves to the first echelon of NATO on the northern and southern flanks of the European theater of war.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the north, these are Finland, Sweden and Norway. Please, be reminded, that in total &nbsp;they have nine mechanized brigades (in the appropriate recalculation of their armed forces), which is equivalent to two Russian armies. This is not enough, but as shown by the experience of the USSR\u2019s war against Finland in 1939-1940, Russia would &nbsp;not be able to act effectively there even with an order of magnitude superior forces. But those countries together with NATO allies would &nbsp;be able to block the bases of the Northern Fleet of the Russian Federation in Murmansk region, and cut the main communications between this region and the rest of Russia and create a direct threat to St. Petersburg, which would &nbsp;be in close proximity to the front line.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In the south, the situation for Russia would &nbsp;become no less complicated. There, Turkey has an advantage over Russia and firmly defends its interests, including militarily ones. In particular, in 2020-2023, Turkey assisted Azerbaijan in restoring control over Nagorno-Karabakh, which was seized by Armenia. And Russia, contrary to its obligations under the CSTO, did not support Armenia. At the same time, Turkey\u2019s interests concern not only the Caucasus, but&nbsp; the entire Black Sea region as well, hence &nbsp;it would &nbsp;certainly oppose Russia in case of Russia\u2019s war with NATO.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">One should not forget about China and its interest in Europe, which is one of its largest trade and economic partners. Therefore, it would &nbsp;do its best &nbsp;to prevent Russia from attacking Europe. &nbsp;And this is quite obvious.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">All in all, such circumstances make it impossible for Russia to attack Europe, at least until the Russian-Ukrainian war is over. But, even then, Moscow would &nbsp;need considerable time and resources to rebuild its army and prepare for the start of hostilities. Although, given the inadequacy of Putin\u2019s regime, anything can be expected, even such suicidal steps as aggression against Europe. The US &nbsp;and NATO leadership is well aware of this and is preparing accordingly by building up its armed forces in Europe and conducting military exercises of the corresponding orientation. The mentioned topic will be discussed in more detail in the next article.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">The situation with Ukraine is different in nature. Thus, under the cover of SCPE \u201cZapad-2025\u201d, Russia can indeed concentrate its troops in Belarus in order to invade our country from the north again. But unlike in 2022, when Ukraine was not prepared for this, although such a threat was quite obvious, now the necessary forces are deployed on the border with Belarus and a defense system is built. In addition, Russia\u2019s actions will not come as a surprise to Ukraine. Therefore, the SCPE \u201cZapad-2025\u201d will not have any special significance for Ukraine. Especially as Russia can bring &nbsp;its troops into Belarus without any exercise. However, it should not &nbsp;be ignored.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>All this allows us to draw several conclusions regarding Europe and Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>The USA &nbsp;and China will never agree to divide the world with Russia, as they do not see Russia as an equal power. However, they can still divide it between &nbsp;themselves, which actually &nbsp;is already happening.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Russia\u2019s attack on Europe is unlikely, but in principle possible. Such a threat does exist, and it requires preparation to repulse Moscow\u2019s possible aggression. The USA &nbsp;and Europe understand this and are taking appropriate measures.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>However, this threat should not be exaggerated, which is what Russia hopes for in terms of forcing Europe to make strategic concessions, first of all &nbsp;to stop supporting Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>To the credit of the leadership of NATO, the EU and leading European countries, they do not succumb to such threats from Moscow and continue to provide assistance to Ukraine, seeing it as one of the main forces in containing Russia\u2019s military expansion.<\/strong><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>Yuriy Mykhailenko<br \/>\n<\/strong><strong>Institute for Global Politics<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Yuri Mikhailenko<\/p>\n<p>According to Western experts, there is now a real possibility of the division of the world between the United States, Russia and China, as well as Moscow&#8217;s attack on Europe<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":28906,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[261,256,260],"tags":[272],"class_list":["post-28888","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-vijna","category-publikacii","tag-mixajlenko","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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