{"id":30942,"date":"2025-08-12T00:01:52","date_gmt":"2025-08-11T21:01:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=30942"},"modified":"2025-08-12T12:12:04","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T09:12:04","slug":"sama-priroda-bud-yako%d1%97-formi-rosijsko%d1%97-derzhavi-ye-su%d1%97cidalnoyu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/en\/publikacii\/sama-priroda-bud-yako%d1%97-formi-rosijsko%d1%97-derzhavi-ye-su%d1%97cidalnoyu\/","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;If we talk about the Russia we would like to see, it is that it should not exist within its current borders&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><em>Based on the materials of the roundtable of the Institute for Global Politics &#8220;Russian Authoritarianism as a Threat to Global Security&#8221;<\/em><\/p>\n<h1 style=\"text-align: justify;\">&#8220;If we talk about the Russia we would like to see, it is that it should not exist within its current borders. I do not believe in the possibility of any evolutionary development of this state, this territory. There can be nothing else but its collapse&#8221;<\/h1>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">My speech can be considered a kind of reflection on what I have just heard in the speeches of those present. Everyone in this audience understands that Russian totalitarianism is a threat. I believe that we are all like-minded in this regard. As for the reflection, I would like to add that we have an unintentional rave? Well, the previous speaker described what is happening between Russia and Ukraine, what Russians or non-Russians should realize about this&#8230; Whatever they say, in Ukraine we distinguish between their ethnic and political affiliation.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But what should they understand, and what should they be reminded of from time to time? I&#8217;m not talking about those in this room, but the Russian population in general. An example was given of Ukraine being a victim and Russia being a rapist. This is not just, as they say, violence. This is violence against your neighbor, your almost relative, who has been in a helpless, very difficult condition since 2014. Since this victim did not want to accept this, in 2022 the rapist decided to destroy her.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">So what do we have in the end?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Let&#8217;s turn to sociology, to such indicators of the Razumkov Center or other sociological services. Today, the positive attitude toward Russia among Ukrainians is approximately 8%, and 3% &#8211; I assume that this is the case &#8211; are those who still perceive Russia positively. Plus another 5% who are relatively positive. And for something to change, it will probably take several generations. That is, what Putin is talking about as a key problem or its roots is really a generational problem.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">But the fact that it can happen, the first recognition of this fact, is a step towards the next one. If we accept such a likely scenario, then we must move on to what is called contingency planning, or serious preparation for such a scenario. In 1991, it was a shock, a huge strategic shock. But somehow we managed to get through it, i.e. nuclear weapons did not fall into dangerous hands. And we managed to avoid a humanitarian catastrophe. Now there is an opportunity to avoid the worst case scenario. First of all, we must urge the West to start preparing for such a scenario. How will we continue to coexist?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">In its research a few years ago, before the large-scale invasion, the Razumkov Center identified the best option for future relations between Russia and Ukraine. It was peaceful coexistence. But today, even this format of relations is difficult to achieve. Therefore, if we talk about the kind of Russia we would like to see, then most likely (and I support this position), Russia should not exist within its current borders. Because I do not believe (and I am not alone) in the possibility of any evolutionary development of this state, this territory. There can be nothing else but its collapse.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/\u041c\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0438\u043a2.jpg\" data-rel=\"lightbox-gallery-9demCYzP\" data-rl_title=\"\" data-rl_caption=\"\" title=\"\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-30969\" src=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/\u041c\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0438\u043a2.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"500\" height=\"440\" srcset=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/\u041c\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0438\u043a2.jpg 1063w, https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/\u041c\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0438\u043a2-415x365.jpg 415w, https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/\u041c\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0438\u043a2-840x740.jpg 840w, https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/08\/\u041c\u0435\u043b\u044c\u043d\u0438\u043a2-768x676.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 500px) 100vw, 500px\" \/><\/a>I know, and the chairman probably knows more than I do, that some work is being done in this regard. But we also realize the limits of what is possible. But what I think I need to say now is that there should be no collapse of Russia. This is not a Ukrainian dream, it should not be some kind of hope, some kind of expectation. Because, as you know, hope is not a strategy. But the strategy should be the following. The first thing is that Putin will not last forever. I think no one will argue with this. The second thing is that, as Volodin said, if there is no Putin, there is no Russia. A small note, right? Because the Putin regime can survive even after Putin&#8217;s physical departure or his political death. Therefore, Russia can survive even if Putin is removed or replaced. But what is less obvious, even controversial for some, is that Russia will not last forever. And this is what was also said today, that all these attempts to save Russia from collapse are futile. This was already said in 1991.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Margaret Thatcher in her book Statecraft recognized that all attempts to save the Soviet Union from collapse, to prevent it, were futile, because the West had neither the financial nor the intellectual capacity. So what I&#8217;m calling for is, first, to accept or recognize that Russia may fall apart. And this will happen, not because we do or do not do something. This is an objective reality. But I&#8217;m not ready to determine when this should happen. It may be tomorrow, tonight, or it may not happen, at least not during our lifetime.&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">What is the significance of such planning?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">It means that at some point, algorithms will be developed to neutralize potential threats. First, I mean nuclear weapons. Second, what about Ukraine&#8217;s borders in the event of a humanitarian catastrophe?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">When we have this at least rough first draft of such a plan, at some point there will be a need to make a decision &#8211; what to do, say, after the 49 days that Trump has now set? Should we continue this policy, that is, help Putin save face and prevent the collapse of Russia, or should we push a little? And this, I think, is the main value of the decision. That is, to agree with the idea that the collapse of Russia is not the worst case scenario. And then to start preparing for it.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: justify;\">And in conclusion, I would like to hear the opinion of those present: is there any other alternative to reduce this risk of Russia, not just totalitarianism, but Russia as an empire. Russia as an entity within the geographical boundaries in which it currently exists?<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: right;\"><strong>Oleksiy MELNIK<br \/>\n<\/strong>Co-Director of Foreign Policy and International Security Programs <br \/>\nat the Razumkov Ukrainian Center for Economic and Political Studies<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Oleksiy MELNIK<\/p>\n<p>Based on the materials of the round table of the Institute for Global Politics &#8220;Russian Authoritarianism as a Threat to Global Security&#8221;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":30962,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[260,264],"tags":[288,299],"class_list":["post-30942","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-publikacii","category-treningi-seminary","tag-kruglij-stil","tag-melnik","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - 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