{"id":31055,"date":"2025-08-14T00:04:18","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T21:04:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=31055"},"modified":"2025-08-14T19:22:14","modified_gmt":"2025-08-14T16:22:14","slug":"koli-rosiya-zaznaye-porazki-mi-ne-znayemo-naskilki-ce-shvidko-stanetsya","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/en\/publikacii\/analitika\/koli-rosiya-zaznaye-porazki-mi-ne-znayemo-naskilki-ce-shvidko-stanetsya\/","title":{"rendered":"“When Russia is defeated, we do not know how quickly it will happen”"},"content":{"rendered":"

Based on the materials of the roundtable of the Institute for Global Politics “Russian Authoritarianism as a Threat to Global Security”<\/em><\/p>\n

“When Russia is defeated, we do not know how quickly it will happen. The world must be ready for this, for such a transformation”<\/h1>\n

I want to emphasize some points that are very important to be in our general rhetoric. <\/p>\n

First. Russia, as everyone said here today, is not only an authoritarian state. Today, we are dealing with a neo-totalitarian regime that combines Stalinist ideology and modern technologies of the 21st century. And this regime is not only a threat to our neighbors today. We, in the Kharkiv region, feel this “neighborhood” like no other. Because everything that flies or crawls from this “neighbor”, everything that can move, is, so to speak, aimed at killing, destroying or annihilating. And if we’re talking about totalitarianism… I agree that there is no need to convince us of anything today. We are, of course, convinced of our rightness, but we very often lose the ideological war.<\/p>\n

And here we can take into account many facts that should interrupt the ideology that is being preached today thanks to Russia’s information capabilities. Here is an example, just from 2024. More than 20 thousand people were convicted in Russia for their anti-war stance. In just one year! The same is true for schoolgirl Liza Anikina, who was sentenced for an anti-war comment on TikTok.<\/p>\n

This is not rhetoric, this is reality. Ideological control.<\/p>\n

Children in schools today are taught to love the country’s leadership, Russia, and to fight the enemy. If we look at the events that have taken place in Russia over the past decades, and maybe even earlier, has there ever been a period when politics, ideology and education, and most importantly, children, were not built without the presence of an enemy? And if there is no mention of enemies, then what will politics in Russia be based on? This is a fact.<\/p>\n

Those who are older remember a lot and will confirm that nothing has changed in Russia. Once upon a time, we were also taught and forced, for example, to know the names of all the members of the Politburo of the CPSU Central Committee by heart, to know their biographies. And now we see that nothing changes in Russia over time. Military training starts at the age of 10. It is included in the state program… That is, it is a conscious policy of the state.<\/p>\n

Next: control over information. I’ll give you an example of the journalist Marina Ovsyannikova, who went on air with an anti-war poster. She is no longer in Russia today, she has left. And her colleagues have been sentenced to 8 years or more.<\/p>\n

The accusation is as follows: war propaganda. Russian television openly talks about the destruction of the Ukrainian nation. The world has already heard this kind of “rhetoric” in the twentieth century. It happened once before, and now… it has appeared again. Russian ideology and information are doing their job. That is why 80 percent of the people there are fooled and support the killing of people in Ukraine by Russians. No matter in which country it will happen, they will definitely vote for it. This is the result of systematic work to deceive citizens, starting with the birth of a child, from kindergarten, school, university and throughout their lives. By the way, this is already happening in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine.<\/p>\n

Similar to what happened to Germany after World War II. International presence, monitoring and, of course, support for programs and democracy development.How does Russia threaten the world today? In addition to open military aggression, there are also cyberattacks that everyone has heard about and recorded, starting with the United States, France, Estonia, and many other countries. Russians also supply weapons to the ruling regimes in Syria, Iran, and many African countries. And this does not stop. Elections in many countries are not held without Russia’s participation.<\/p>\n

And there is also nuclear blackmail. Starting in 2022, this is already related to the war with Ukraine. Kremlin officials have declared Russia’s right to a preemptive nuclear strike.  Such statements are not uncommon. Again, these are not horror stories, but documented facts. Unfortunately, we have not found mechanisms in international law to effectively counter this.<\/p>\n

And as for proposals for the future. When will Russia, let’s say, be defeated? We do not know how quickly it will happen. But the world should be ready for this, for such a transformation. I think at least five areas of activity of the international community should be identified.<\/p>\n

The first area is a war crimes tribunal. A tribunal like the former Nuremberg trials. This is the consistent position of Ukraine and the international community.<\/p>\n

Second: de-imperialization of Russia. Give Tatarstan, Buryatia, Ingushetia and other enslaved peoples the right to self-determination. Everyone needs to support this. This is exactly, so to speak, the explosion from within that we all need. The Soviet Union once collapsed, and the same thing should happen to Russia, because it is based on violence.<\/p>\n

Third: educational reform. The cult of imperial heroes must be banned. And a new program for teaching children and educating young people, of course, should be based not on myths but on facts. The facts that all my colleagues are talking about today.<\/p>\n

Fourth: disarmament. Russia itself will never disarm! Therefore, the country with the largest territory and the largest number of nuclear warheads must disarm under international control. We need to define such an effective disarmament mechanism. This hydra cannot be neutralized in any other way.<\/p>\n

And fifth, this is, of course, a controlled transition.<\/p>\n

Totalitarianism in any country has never eliminated urgent problems. It only increased them. Both for itself and for everyone nearby or at a great distance. Today, Russia is the main source of destabilization, aggression, and, let’s just say, inhumane global practices. Therefore, we will never defeat tyranny in silence. And we must call a spade a spade and act. The time factor is very important here. We must act before, as many say, it is too late.<\/p>\n

Serhiy CHERNOV<\/strong>
\nPresident of the Kharkiv Diplomatic Club,
\nDoctor of Science in Public Administration, Professor<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Serhiy CHERNOV<\/p>\n

Based on the materials of the roundtable of the Institute for Global Politics “Russian Authoritarianism as a Threat to Global Security”<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":31056,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[261,264],"tags":[302],"class_list":["post-31055","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-treningi-seminary","tag-chernov","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\n"When Russia is defeated, we do not know how quickly it will happen" - 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