Trump\u2019s policy causes extremely ambiguous assessments in the world expert community, in particular, regarding his role as a mediator in the negotiations to end Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine;<\/em><\/p>\n most experts believe that his actions are chaotic and adventurous. Some are inclined to call them thoughtful and purposeful, meeting both American and his own interests;<\/em><\/p>\n In view of the above, D. Trump\u2019s flirtation with Moscow and pressure on Ukraine may be part of a game to weaken Russia by pushing Putin to further senseless war;<\/em><\/p>\n this way, Russia\u2019s economy and military resources are being depleted, which will allow the United States to dictate its demands to Russia in the near future.<\/em><\/p>\n In the current situation, the main issue for Ukraine is the prospects for ending the war.<\/strong> However, we should not capitulate, no matter how hard Russia tries to force us to do so, including by intensifying its drone strikes.<\/p>\n Under any circumstances, the resolution of this issue will largely depend on the position and actions of U.S. President D. Trump, who has real leverage over Russia in the form of critical sanctions and military and technical support for Ukraine. Europe is also doing so, but its capabilities are less than those of the United States.<\/p>\n However, D. Trump\u2019s policy is rather ambiguous in nature and is assessed differently by his opponents, who are currently outnumbered, and by his supporters or so-called \u201cTrumpists\u201d<\/strong>. According to the former, this policy is reckless, chaotic, and adventurous, which is detrimental to the United States and its allies and partners. Others, on the contrary, consider it a successful strategy, which only seems to be so, as mentioned above.<\/p>\n The arguments of D. Trump\u2019s opponents<\/strong> are well known, but they should be compared with the version of the \u201cTrumpists\u201d. The main one is the insistence that D. Trump\u2019s trade wars against the whole world will have negative consequences, as they cause sharp contradictions between the United States and most of those countries. This cannot help weakening America\u2019s international position, as the tangible losses complicate the work of the American economy.<\/p>\n In addition, D. Trump\u2019s demands to increase Europe\u2019s direct responsibility for its security are being criticized, so that, as he sees it, transatlantic unity and NATO are not weakened. At the same time, the United States is losing its credibility as a pillar of the Western world in the fight against totalitarianism.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s mediation efforts to end Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine are also negatively perceived. Thus, according to the dominant views of Ukrainian and Western experts, D. Trump flirts with Russia, is on its side, respects Putin, refuses to strengthen sanctions against the aggressor, puts pressure on Ukraine to give in, otherwise he promises to stop supplying weapons. In turn, the Russians accuse him of issuing ultimatums to Russia and continuing to support Ukraine.<\/p>\n In view of the above, disappointing forecasts are being made for Ukraine, which will allegedly be forced to agree to unfavorable Russian peace terms.<\/strong> This is mainly due to Ukraine\u2019s vain hopes for D. Trump, who, given its interests, will not really help end the war. While Europe alone, without the help of the United States, will not be able to properly support it in such a war with Russia.<\/p>\n \u201cTrumpists\u201d<\/strong> have completely opposite views. We have already touched upon this, but it is worth giving a more detailed picture, especially regarding their interpretation of D. Trump\u2019s mediation efforts and their possible consequences. In fact, this is the main aim of this article.<\/p>\n Thus, D. Trump\u2019s supporters believe that most of his actions are achieving their goals. In particular, the aim of his trade wars was to force other countries to take into account the United States and measures to eliminate the imbalance in bilateral trade. This is exactly what happened. Most of those countries, so to speak, bowed to America and agreed that it would raise tariffs on their goods. Equal tax increases were agreed upon on the basis of mutual compromises, which helped to eliminate the most acute contradictions.<\/p>\n An example of this approach is the signing of a trade agreement between the USA and the EU in July this year, which put an end to problems in the parties\u2019 cooperation in the trade and economic sphere. Trade negotiations between the USA and China are currently underway and are generally successful. And the losses of American business due to the temporary drop in the main indicators of the US stock exchange in the spring of this year after D. Trump\u2019s increase in import duties on foreign goods have already been compensated for by the recovery of the stock price.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s demands to Europe in the security sphere are also considered fully justified. The situation really requires a redistribution of responsibility between the United States and Europe (in the form of the European component of NATO and the EU) for the protection of the transatlantic space. This is already happening in practice in terms of the USA\u2019s focusing its efforts on deterring China and Europe on countering Russia.<\/p>\n At this, the United States is in no way refusing to participate in ensuring Europe\u2019s security. Moreover, it was thanks to D. Trump\u2019s efforts that European NATO members agreed to increase defense spending, which strengthens the Alliance. In addition, the United States has not reduced its military presence in Europe, but rather increased it through the deployment of American troops in Finland and Sweden after their accession to NATO.<\/p>\n The Trumpists\u2019 vision of D. Trump\u2019s policy toward Russia and Ukraine, as well as his mediation role in ending the war, also differs from others.<\/strong> Let us analyze this issue in more detail, since it is the most important for our country.<\/p>\n According to the experts of the group, D. Trump is not on the side of the Russian Federation and does not support it. He is playing a subtle game to radically weaken Russia and, if possible, eliminate it as a single state. First of all, this should be in the interests of the United States and only then \u2013 of Ukraine. D. Trump\u2019s goals have a higher geopolitical level than just ending the war.<\/p>\n The main one is to eliminate the most dangerous source of military threats to the United States and its allies, which is Russia. This takes into account the fact that the hopes of the United States and Europe for Russia\u2019s democratic development after the collapse of the USSR were in vain. Now no one believes in this anymore. Besides, D. Trump is trying to weaken China\u2019s position by undermining the military and economic potential of Russia, which is the PRC\u2019s most important partner. Another goal is to capture Russia\u2019s share of the European and global energy market.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s methodology is quite simple. The plan is to encourage Putin to continue the war without any real results until Russia\u2019s forces are critically depleted. In this way, he wants to be able to dictate his will to Moscow and then disintegrate Russia. According to this approach, the preservation of Ukraine as an independent state, the return of its territories, and the acceleration of its European and Euro-Atlantic integration are seen as a reward for the sacrifices made. This explains the strategy used by D. Trump in his mediation activities.<\/p>\n Thus, D. Trump\u2019s key policy line in this area is to demonstrate his commitment to Putin and systematically postpone the introduction of sanctions, accompanied by public pressure on Ukraine with threats to stop supplying it with weapons. Putin perceives this as an opportunity to continue the war against Ukraine until his goals are achieved, despite the losses and the growing financial, economic and social problems in the country. At the same time, he is given the idea that victory over Ukraine can be achieved in the near future, and therefore any of these problems can be ignored.<\/p>\n At the same time, D. Trump does not stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. On the contrary, he intensifies this process. Moreover, the weapons provided are those that can cause the greatest damage to the Russian economy, such as long-range missiles. The only thing that is changing is the form of such assistance, which is now being provided through NATO and at European expense. That is, the US President is also earning money for his country. But this does not change the essence of the matter. Ukraine has the ability to successfully continue its resistance, which is the main factor in exhausting Russia\u2019s forces.<\/p>\n Besides, instead of imposing secondary sanctions on Russia\u2019s partners, which would not be highly effective and would complicate trade between the United States and China, which is important for American business, D. Trump is using more effective methods to undermine the Russian economy. Thus, thanks to his influence, the Middle Eastern OPEC countries have increased oil production, which has led to a decline in world oil prices. At the same time, the United States began to lift sanctions on Venezuela, which has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia. In particular, American companies began buying oil from Venezuela for refining.<\/p>\n The purpose of such actions is to reduce oil prices to a level below the profitability of its production in Russia. As a result, production will become unprofitable, as it will not provide revenue for the Russian Federation. And the collapse of its oil industry will be accelerated by Ukraine\u2019s strikes on Russian refineries. More than 20 % of such capacities are already out of commission<\/p>\n From time to time, D. Trump \u201cruns over\u201d Russia, giving it ultimatums to stop hostilities. However, this is just an element of a political game that is supposed to demonstrate the objectivity of his policy and disguise its true goals. D. Trump also deliberately limits the restoration of US relations with Russia to only minor things that have nothing to do with the division of the world. And it is this division that Putin seeks most.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s strategy has very specific consequences. It consistently weakens Russia and forces it to give in, although so far this has only been the case with the war against Ukraine.<\/strong> This is evident if we compare the progress of peace negotiations with the development of negative processes in the Russian economy.<\/p>\n Thus, the state of the Russian economy began to deteriorate significantly in February-March 2025. The results of the first quarter of this year showed a decline in GDP growth. At the same time, the Russian leadership and Putin himself began to talk about the need to \u201ccool\u201d the Russian economy. During the same period, in the context of the negotiations, it was announced that Moscow would not seize the whole of Ukraine and that Russia was ready to limit itself to the entire territory of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions and Crimea. These changes were called Putin\u2019s first concession.<\/p>\n The economic situation in the RF deteriorated sharply in June and July of this year, which is quite obvious. In the second quarter, GDP growth actually stopped, and output in the civilian sector fell. At the same time, enterprises in the coal, automotive, construction, and other industries began to partially or completely shut down. In August, this process accelerated significantly. This forced Putin to agree to a second concession, namely, to limit his claims to the entire territory of Donetsk region. These changes are fundamental in nature, as he added Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions of Ukraine to the Russian constitution.<\/p>\n According to most forecasts, Russia\u2019s economic problems will turn into a crisis this autumn. Business shutdowns will become widespread. In addition, banks will begin to go bankrupt. A sharp increase in the state budget deficit will force the government to sharply increase the issuance of unsecured funds, which will increase inflation. The reserve fund will be completely empty. It is highly likely that this situation will push Putin to make another concession, namely, to give up his claims to the entire territory of Donetsk region.<\/p>\n In neither case will Putin\u2019s concessions cause a massive negative reaction from Russians. Most likely, it will not happen again, except for criticism of his actions by Z-bloggers. However, their information activities will be suppressed.<\/p>\n It is on the basis of such forecasts that it is concluded that by the end of 2025 the war may be frozen along the current front line.<\/strong> However, this may happen sooner, as D. Trump may still impose secondary sanctions on Russia\u2019s trading partners.<\/p>\n However, there is more to that. Russia\u2019s economic problems will not disappear even if sanctions are partially lifted. The main reason for its problems will remain the decline in oil prices. As a result, the RF will not have enough money to cover budget expenditures. Businesses will also have no income. Especially if Russian oil prices really fall below the profitability of its costs.<\/p>\n In addition, Russia will not be able to immediately significantly reduce military losses and quickly convert its economy, which is largely on a military footing. Nor will it be able to regain its position in the European energy market, which is already controlled by the United States.<\/p>\n In this state of affairs, Russia will be in dire need of foreign loans and the lifting of most sanctions, which will be the only way to save its economy. But only the United States and the EU will be able to resolve this problem, since China does not provide loans to anyone, which is its principled position, and cannot influence their position on sanctions.<\/p>\n The USA and the EU may meet Russia halfway, but they will condition this on a number of requirements, including the return of Ukraine\u2019s occupied territories. And Moscow may agree, although it currently rejects this possibility completely. It is not for nothing that collaborators in southern Ukraine are already publicly demonstrating concern about such prospects and taking their families to Crimea. And expert circles in Russia are discussing the option of a dual Russian-Ukrainian status for the Crimean Peninsula under the auspices of the United Nations.<\/p>\n But the loans will have to be repaid, and Russia will again have no funds, as the loan will inevitably be stolen, which is a common Russian practice. The United States and the EU will once again meet Moscow halfway, but will impose new conditions on it, this time regarding the country\u2019s democratization. The Kremlin will be forced to agree, which may cause the collapse of Russia, since it retains all the qualities of an empire and can exist only under totalitarianism.<\/p>\n It was for such reasons and in such a way that the Soviet Union once collapsed. Of course, the United States and Europe will try to prevent Russia\u2019s uncontrolled disintegration, let alone its nuclear weapons from getting out of control. But the mechanisms for this were developed during the collapse of the USSR. In particular, they include the practice of the United States and the EU establishing direct contacts with the leaders of state entities and directing their actions in the appropriate direction. It is also possible to create a commission similar to Chernomyrdin-Gore Commission (Russian Prime Minister and US Vice President in the early 1990s), which Washington used to control Russian nuclear weapons.<\/p>\n Starting with the stage of Russia\u2019s possible returning the occupied territories to Ukraine, the scenario under consideration is hypothetical. However, it may well be realized in practice. Moreover, Russia would cease to exist as an integral state, and this would not affect the global economy. It has already been virtually excluded from international economic relations, and its place has been taken by other countries.<\/p>\n All of this will take time, and D. Trump will not be able to receive the coveted Peace Prize this year or even next year. But he will be included in the group of the most prominent US Presidents along with R. Reagan, which can be considered a much more important achievement.<\/p>\n Thus, contrary to most estimates, US President D. Trump\u2019s policy is logical and purposeful in nature and allows him to realize American and his own presidential interests. In principle, they are in line with Ukraine\u2019s interests. Although he uses our country as a tool to achieve private goals.<\/strong><\/p>\n Within the framework of D. Trump\u2019s actions, his efforts to weaken Russia and its possible disintegration are of the utmost importance to Ukraine. The implementation of such plans will help restore the territorial integrity of our country, increase its security and promote positive European development.<\/strong><\/p>\n However, in any case, Ukraine should not rely on D. Trump alone. The main guarantor of security, sovereignty and territorial integrity has been and will remain its Defense Forces.<\/strong><\/p>\n Yuriy Ilchenko, Yuriy Ilchenko<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s policy causes extremely ambiguous assessments in the world expert community, in particular, regarding his role as a mediator in the negotiations to end Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":31313,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[261,260],"tags":[268],"class_list":["post-31312","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-publikacii","tag-ilchenko","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\n
\n<\/strong>Institute for Global Politics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"