The USA and the EU are increasing pressure on Russia to force it to end the war it has unleashed against Ukraine. The result of this pressure is a noticeable deterioration in Russia\u2019s economy, which reduces its military capabilities; As part of their policy of forcing Russia to make peace, the USA and the EU are increasing sanctions pressure on it.<\/strong> According to US media reports, following the imposition of sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, US President Donald Trump is ready to sign a bill on new sanctions against the Russian Federation. These have already been drafted by representatives of the Republican and Democratic parties and submitted to Congress for consideration. For its part, the EU is preparing its 20th<\/sup> package of anti-Russian sanctions.<\/p>\n All this has already caused significant damage to Russia\u2019s economy. Since the second half of the summer, Russia has seen a physical decline in the production of civilian goods. Since October, this trend has also been observed in its military sector. At the same time, federal and regional budget deficits have grown rapidly as a result of declining oil revenues due to falling oil prices and Western sanctions. Along with this, wage cuts and rising prices are leading to increased social tensions in the country.<\/p>\n These circumstances reduce Moscow\u2019s ability to wage war. And this is already being felt in practice. In particular, since the summer, Russian regions have sharply reduced payments to citizens for signing military service contracts, which is explained by a lack of funds. And in the third quarter of this year, the number of people willing to voluntarily go to war has dropped threefold. As a result, Russia has been unable to build up sufficient strategic reserves, which had enabled it to achieve success in previous years. This is evidenced by the inability of its armed forces to capture Pokrovsk and Kupiansk during the year. For comparison, in 2024, it was after bringing in reserves in October-November that Russia captured most of the cities such as Chasiv Yar and Toretsk.<\/p>\n At the same time, Moscow is still capable of continuing the war.<\/strong> According to some experts\u2019 forecasts, Russia will be able to do so for at least another year, albeit with less intensity. The same will be true for missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian territory. They will continue, but the number of strike assets for raids will be decreasing and massive strikes involving up to 50 UAVs and up to 50 missiles will become sporadic. Due to economic problems, Russia will not be able to manufacture them in sufficient quantities or purchase their components.<\/p>\n At the same time, Moscow will compensate for the decline in oil revenues (it simply has no others) at the expense of the Russian population. This is already being observed or is planned in the form of tax increases and partial or complete freezing of citizens\u2019 bank accounts. The fact that such an approach will destroy small and medium-sized businesses, further exacerbate the socio-economic situation in the country, and cause mass discontent among the people does not stop Moscow.<\/p>\n The ruling elite of the RF is counting on the fact that people will continue to endure hardship and support its course, including the continuation of the war against Ukraine. After all, Russian propaganda has significantly vulgarized the consciousness of the country\u2019s citizens. Any possible protests or attempts at rebellion will be suppressed by the security forces. Preparations for this are already underway. For example, in the Russian Federation\u2019s state budget for 2026, spending on national security and law enforcement has been increased from 3.5 to 3.91 trillion rubles.<\/p>\n In other words, Putin\u2019s regime has clear intentions to implement its plans for Ukraine at any cost, even at the expense of destroying the Russian economy and Russia\u2019s loss of its international position and transformation into something resembling North Korea. This is quite understandable, since ending the war without achieving the stated goals would mean Putin\u2019s political death and the collapse of his life\u2019s goals. And then the questions will arise: why was the war started? And who will be responsible for the economic damage and millions of human casualties?<\/p>\n Of course, propaganda will convince Russians that Russia has \u201cwon\u201d and will be able to reassure them of this. But this will still not satisfy Putin\u2019s ambitions. This explains his uncompromising position and refusal to engage in real negotiations with Ukraine. Moreover, he is most likely unaware of what is really happening in Russia. This is evidenced by his public statements about the \u201cresilience of the Russian economy\u201d, which supposedly outperforms Japan\u2019s and Germany\u2019s. This actually contradicts the obvious facts and is refuted even by representatives of the Russian government. The same applies to Putin\u2019s statements about the Russian army\u2019s \u201csuccesses\u201d on the front line, which allegedly holds the strategic initiative and has already surrounded Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, where, according to him, ten thousand Ukrainian servicemen remain.<\/p>\n Given his views, Putin clearly hopes that the situations of 2014 and 2015 will repeat themselves, when the defeats of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the front line forced Ukraine to agree to sign the Minsk agreements, which were contrary to its interests. In the same way, he hopes to force Ukraine to capitulate. The recent massive strikes on the Ukrainian energy system are also calculated to achieve this.<\/p>\n As is well known, the Russian president\u2019s unwavering position, which was confirmed by Minister of Foreign Affairs of the RF Lavrov during a telephone conversation with US Secretary of State Rubio on October 20, led to the breakdown of high-level US-Russian talks in Budapest. After that, Trump moved from trying to reach an agreement with Putin to putting pressure on him by imposing sanctions. In response, Moscow also announced that it had no intention of continuing negotiations with the USA and Ukraine.<\/p>\n However, according to a number of reports, the USA is currently holding closed consultations with Russia and Ukraine on resuming US-Russian and Russian-Ukrainian negotiations to end the war.<\/strong> According to the American publication Axios, a 28-point peace plan has been prepared under the leadership of US President D. Trump\u2019s Special Representative S. Witkoff, which includes four main categories: peace in Ukraine; security guarantees; European security; and future USA\u2019s relations with Russia and Ukraine.<\/p>\n It appears to have already been partially agreed upon at the level of S. Witkoff, Russian President Vladimir Putin\u2019s envoy K. Dmitriev, and Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary R. Umerov, taking into account the interests of Russia and Ukraine. At the same time, as before, the main problem remains the resolution of territorial issues.<\/p>\n Further discussion of the plan is said to be the main aim of the November 19 visit to Ukraine by an American delegation consisting of US Secretary of the Army D. Driscoll and Chief of Staff of the Army General R. George. After that, they will head to Russia. Some media outlets even report that the agreement may be signed by the end of this month.<\/p>\n It is hard to tell how reliable such reports are. In many cases, such American and European publications misinform the public. Everything related to S. Witkoff, who has repeatedly demonstrated his unprofessionalism, is equally questionable. However, representatives of the Russian leadership also speak of their readiness for negotiations. However, they repeat the same demands on Ukraine as before. Therefore, this can only be considered as Moscow\u2019s attempts to avoid new sanctions from the USA and the EU. After all, US sanctions against Russian companies Lukoil and Rosneft proved highly effective even before they came into force. Most likely, Russia will again try to imitate negotiations and drag them out. Although anything is possible…<\/p>\n This situation will continue until Russia faces economic disaster, which will make it physically uncapable of continuing the war and bring it to the brink of collapse.<\/strong> Until then, it will try to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine. The continuation of the war will also have negative consequences for our partners, who will be forced to spend additional funds on military and technical support for Ukraine and its post-war recovery.<\/p>\n Today, the only way to resolve this problem, namely to force Russia to make peace in the near future, is with the help of China, which has unquestionable influence over Russia. Russia is completely dependent on China economically and has no alternatives. As a result, Moscow will be forced to comply with Beijing\u2019s demand to end the war, if such a demand is made.<\/p>\n However, this will depend on the nature of relations between China and the USA, as China is using Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine as a means of strengthening its position in the geopolitical competition with America.<\/strong> So far, this issue is extremely complex, as there are still significant contradictions in the relations between the parties.<\/p>\n First of all, this concerns the division of the world between them as the two leading centers of global power. At this, while Trump\u2019s predecessors \u2013 US Presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden \u2013 agreed with the emergence of a new bipolar system of international relations, D. Trump is making efforts to preserve America\u2019s dominant role.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s tariff wars, with a particular focus on China, were aimed at achieving this goal, which led to increased confrontation between the two countries. However, both Washington and Beijing understand the need to establish constructive cooperation as two global leaders and major trading partners on whom the world and the development of the global economy depend.<\/p>\n At the end of October, the USA and China reached an agreement in principle on trade issues regarding tariff reductions and the removal of restrictions on the supply of sensitive goods that are important to both parties. Given this, the signing of a trade agreement between them is expected by the end of November this year. This will also form the basis for political compromises between the USA and China.<\/p>\n These prospects were confirmed during a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping on October 30 in South Korea on the sidelines of the APEC summit. The continuation of direct dialogue between them is expected during D. Trump\u2019s visit to China in early 2026 and Xi Jinping\u2019s visit to the USA in the same year. They will not eliminate the contradictions between the two countries, but at least they will give their relations the form of peaceful coexistence, taking into account the interests of each.<\/p>\n If this happens, Russia\u2019s importance to China as a counterweight to the USA will diminish significantly. China will not abandon Russia completely, but it may pressure it to end the war, as it will no longer interested in it. Moreover, the war will hinder the further normalization of China\u2019s relations with the USA and impede its trade with Europe.<\/p>\n In fact, Beijing is already putting pressure on Moscow by partially abandoning Russian oil under the threat of US sanctions. Recently, it has reduced its imports by two-thirds. Such actions by China are a powerful factor pushing Russia to resume negotiations with the USA. So far, it has demonstrated the immutability of its position, but the real prospect of a collapse of the state economy may prompt it to make concessions.<\/p>\n Thus, the consequences of US and EU sanctions against Russia confirm their effectiveness. Under pressure from economic problems, Moscow is beginning to seek opportunities to resume negotiations with America and Ukraine. So far, it continues to make ultimatums to Ukraine and demand that it capitulate. However, the emergence of a real threat of a deep crisis in Russia\u2019s economy due to the loss of oil revenues may force it to give in.<\/strong><\/p>\n In this regard, China, which still supports Russia but is already reducing imports of Russian oil due to possible US sanctions, is emerging as an additional factor influencing Russia.<\/strong><\/p>\n Overall, such actions by China, together with similar actions by India, could become critical for Russia and complement the sanctions imposed by the USA and the EU.<\/strong><\/p>\n Yurii Ilchenko, (Image generated by neural network)<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Yurii Ilchenko<\/p>\n The USA and the EU are increasing pressure on Russia to force it to end the war it has unleashed against Ukraine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":32148,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[261,260],"tags":[268],"class_list":["post-32147","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-publikacii","tag-ilchenko","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\n
\n<\/em>In this situation, Moscow continues to demonstrate the immutability of its positions, but under the pressure of economic problems, it is beginning to look for ways to resume negotiations with the USA and Ukraine;
\n<\/em>The final blow to Russia, which would make it agree to concessions, would be China joining in the joint pressure on it. China still supports Russia, but has already begun to refuse to purchase Russian oil.<\/em><\/p>\n
\n<\/strong>Institute for Global Politics<\/p>\n