Recent developments on the Russian-American track indicate that the Belarusian leadership is facing conflicting conditions for further geopolitical maneuvering. Negotiations on a peace plan to end Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine are taking place in a USA-Russia-Ukraine format. Belarus\u2019 participation in the triangle is not being considered. This development is an unfavorable signal for Lukashenko, who seeks to expand his window of opportunity through communication with Washington. However, there is currently no reason to believe that the USA considers Lukashenko a potential mediator or organizer of negotiations. It is known that the previously announced visit to Belarus by an American delegation led by US Special Representative John Cole, which was supposed to result in the release of nearly 100 political prisoners in the near future, has been postponed until at least the end of 2025. Besides, the logic of the Belarusian-American negotiation process requires that the next steps in the development of cooperation be more significant than the previous ones, or at least not radically opposite. However, the Belarusian regime continues its repression, adding new prisoners to the ranks of political prisoners, as well as putting pressure on the relatives of those who have already been released and deported, which runs counter to the very essence of the USA\u2019s humanitarian mission.<\/p>\n
This development is due to the current uncertainty in US-Russian relations, part of which for Washington is a possible rapprochement with Minsk. At present, the USA\u2019s intentions to remove Belarus from Russia\u2019s sphere of influence remain illusory. The \u201cTrump plan\u201d does not provide for any real commitments on the part of Russia to limit its military power and military presence, so the Russian Federation will continue to use the territory of Belarus as a platform for the use of tactical nuclear weapons and, possibly, strategic offensive weapons, such as the \u201cOreshnik\u201d missile system. In general, the \u201cTrump plan\u201d demonstrates the USA\u2019s willingness to decide the geopolitical fate of the region jointly with Russia without the participation of European countries. Given this approach by the US presidential administration, any \u201cgreat deal\u201d between Minsk and Washington would take into account Russia\u2019s key interests in the region, which calls into question Minsk\u2019s ability to maintain its sovereignty.<\/p>\n
Indicative in this regard was the situation surrounding the venue for negotiations on freezing the Russian-Ukrainian war. In his speech following the joint meeting of the Belarusian and Russian Ministers of Foreign Affairs on November 25, Lavrov generally welcomed Belarus\u2019 \u201cmediation efforts\u201d in resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. At this, he rejected the possibility of \u201cthird Minsk agreements\u201d, citing the fact that they were concluded between Ukraine and Russia with the mediation of France and Germany, and that the latter two countries cannot act as mediators and guarantors in the settlement of relations between Kyiv and Moscow in the current situation [1]. Following this, during his visit to Kyrgyzstan to participate in the CSTO summit and meeting with V. Putin on the sidelines of the event, A. Lukashenko insisted that Minsk become a negotiating platform. However, the Russian leader did not support this initiative, commenting on the issue of Belarus\u2019 mediation in the resolution of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict only \u201cin general\u201d.<\/p>\n
At the same time, in an attempt to demonstrate its involvement in the process of resolving the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Minsk released and handed over to the Ukrainian side 31 Ukrainian prisoners. The statement by the Belarusian Foreign Ministry on November 21, 2025, about a \u201cjoint operation by Belarus and Poland\u201d \u201cto locate two Ukrainian citizens suspected of terrorist crimes on Polish territory\u201d(referring to sabotage on the Warsaw-Lublin railway line) was also significant. According to the statement, \u201ctogether with the Polish side, the contacts of the suspects are being worked out and a set of other operational measures is being implemented; “if their location on the territory of Belarus is established, they will be detained\u201d and \u201cthe possibility of transferring them to the Polish side will be considered, taking into account all the circumstances of the case\u201d [2].<\/p>\n
On the European track, there has been a certain warming of relations between Belarus and Poland, likely with the mediation of the USA and China. The softening of Belarusian rhetoric towards Poland and the opening of Polish-Belarusian border crossings may enable the release of persons of particular interest to the Polish side \u2013 A. Poczobut, a member of the Union of Poles in Belarus, G. Havel, a monk of the Catholic order, journalists of the Belsat TV channel, and others. As part of the tacit agreements between Belarus and Poland, Minsk is currently blocking almost all flows of illegal migrants towards Poland. However, all these positive results are very fragile, and in case of the release of political prisoners, incomplete.<\/p>\n
The situation on the Lithuanian front remains tense. The Belarusian leadership is holding the property of Lithuanian transport companies \u201chostage\u201d and continues to force Lithuania into negotiations. During the Security Council meeting on December 9, where the Belarusian defense plan until 2030 was approved, Aleksandr Lukashenko categorically demanded the opening of negotiations with Lithuania at the political level, refusing to make any concessions regarding Lithuanian trucks.<\/p>\n
Despite the search for ways to normalize Belarusian-Lithuanian relations, the number of incidents involving weather balloons in Lithuanian airspace from Belarusian territory is increasing, which has provoked a sharp reaction from the Lithuanian leadership and the closure of Vilnius airport. A particularly large-scale incident occurred on November 30, 2025, when about 60 objects invaded Lithuanian airspace. The continuation of these incidents forced Lithuania to actively seek EU support for imposing sanctions against Belarus for using\/allowing the use of its territory for hybrid attacks against the air security of Lithuania and the EU. On December 1, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen announced the preparation of new sanctions against Belarus.<\/p>\n
In turn, the Belarusian authorities reported an alleged intrusion into the country\u2019s airspace by a Lithuanian UAV carrying \u201cextremist printed materials\u201d. The Belarusian authorities regarded this incident as \u201ca deliberate provocation not only against the Republic of Belarus, but also against the Republic of Poland\u201d. Thus, on the European stage, the Belarusian regime continues to act in line with the Kremlin\u2019s escalation strategy. However, it is counting on the fact that, against the background of US efforts to broker a truce in the Russian-Ukrainian war, the EU will not pursue further escalation against Minsk.<\/p>\n
However, this calculation may be wrong, as the EU has repeatedly stated and confirmed its position on the application of sanctions. The EU is preparing a new package of sanctions against Russia, which will include measures against Belarus in order to limit its participation in Russia\u2019s military aggression as much as possible and block all possible ways of circumventing European restrictions. The sanctions will include:<\/p>\n
Besides, due to hybrid attacks, Lithuania is seeking EU-wide sanctions against Belarus, including restrictions on imports of Belarusian nitrogen fertilizers and in the aviation sector, despite recent easing of restrictions against Belavia<\/em> Airlines.<\/p>\n Lithuania\u2019s Prime Minister Inga R\u016bginien\u0117 plans to meet with US Special Envoy John Cole before his visit to Belarus. Currently, the Lithuanian side is calling on the international community to recognize Belarus\u2019 actions as terrorism [3].<\/p>\n Official Minsk is finding new reasons to continue escalating tensions with Lithuania, even though this country is key to resolving the issue of transit, particularly of Belarusian potash fertilizers, which are on the US list of strategic materials.<\/p>\n Ultimately, the confrontational course chosen by the Belarusian regime in its relations with neighboring countries is not in the interests of Belarus itself, which has been losing its sovereignty for years and is now unsuccessfully trying to restore it. Lukashenko accused Western countries of militarization and reiterated that Belarus is preparing for war in order to prevent it. At this, the declared defensive nature of such a war on the part of Belarus and Russia implies that the conflict could begin in response to the neighboring EU countries\u2019 or Ukraine\u2019s response to a staged provocation [4].<\/p>\n Maria Hutsalo,<\/strong> [1] https:\/\/mid.ru\/ru\/foreign_policy\/news\/2061344\/<\/a><\/p>\n [2] https:\/\/www.mfa.gov.by\/press\/news_mfa\/c8cbf0d8cdafac32.html<\/a><\/p>\n
\nexpert, candidate of political sciences<\/p>\n