{"id":33010,"date":"2026-02-25T00:01:09","date_gmt":"2026-02-24T21:01:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=33010"},"modified":"2026-02-28T20:51:12","modified_gmt":"2026-02-28T17:51:12","slug":"ukra%d1%97na-bilorus-zavershennya-neviznachenosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/en\/publikacii\/ukra%d1%97na-bilorus-zavershennya-neviznachenosti\/","title":{"rendered":"Ukraine \u2013 Belarus: the End of Uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"

Ukraine \u2013 Belarus: the End of Uncertainty<\/h1>\n

In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, risks to the national security of the Republic of Belarus are growing, due to the likelihood of the country being drawn into a real confrontation with Ukraine or countries on NATO\u2019s eastern flank. At this, risks continue to grow due to the deepening economic crisis in Russia and the tightening of sanctions by the European Union and Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

With the introduction of new sanctions and the slowdown in negotiations with the USA, Belarus\u2019 leadership is increasingly relying on cooperation and support from Russia. The European Union plans to significantly strengthen its sanctions policy against Belarus by extending a number of restrictions that were previously applied against Russia. The new package of sanctions should be aimed at reducing Minsk\u2019s technological, economic, and logistical capabilities, as well as preventing the circumvention of existing sanctions. In the context of the sanctions policy, the publication of a list of Belarusian companies that are integrated with the Russian military-industrial complex and support Russia\u2019s aggression against Ukraine, prepared by the Association of Former Belarusian Security Forces BelPol, was a landmark event.<\/span><\/p>\n

The new package of EU sanctions could deal a painful blow to the economy of Belarus amid the virtual collapse of the real sector. In January 2026, industrial production fell by 3.4%, while manufacturing dropped by 7.5%. Warehouse stocks grew by 800 million rubles over the month, setting another historic record of almost 90% of monthly production. GDP fell by 1.2% over the month. For Belarus, support from Russia will not only significantly decrease due to the economic crisis in the RF itself, but will also result in political demands from Moscow.<\/span><\/p>\n

In this context, the publication of a press release by the Foreign Intelligence Service of the RF on February 9, 2026, entitled \u201cWestern \u2018Democratizers\u2019 Again Targeting Belarus\u201d sent a sharp political signal. In this document, the Foreign Intelligence Service, referring to \u201cincoming information\u201d, states that organizations from the USA, UK, Germany, Poland, and other European countries are \u201caccumulating forces and resources to once again try to destabilize the situation and bring about a change in the constitutional order in Belarus\u201d. Given that this statement was published the day after the talks between Aleksandr Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin, this publication can be seen as Russia\u2019s direct threat to organize another operation under a foreign flag to destabilize the political situation in Belarus and change the regime if the Belarusian side does not make concessions to Moscow.<\/span><\/p>\n

Among the key concessions that the Kremlin demands from the Belarusian leadership are as follows:<\/span><\/p>\n