The USA and Israel\u2019s military operation against Iran makes global oil prices rise. This creates new opportunities for Moscow to continue its aggression against Ukraine;<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n however, Russia will not be able to achieve significant success on the front lines, as the increase in its oil and gas revenues is relatively limited and temporary;<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Currently, the USA, together with the G7 countries, is actively taking measures to stabilize the global oil market, which is having positive effects;<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n by this autumn at the latest, the USA and Israel may achieve their goals regarding Iran and unblock the Strait of Hormuz, as well as resume the supply of Iranian oil to the global market.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n Events in the Middle East and their consequences are having a significant impact on the situation surrounding Russia\u2019s war against Ukraine.<\/b> Currently, the global community\u2019s primary focus is on rising oil prices, which are affecting most countries and negatively impacting the global economy. As for Russia, it is transforming from an aggressor that attacked Ukraine into almost a \u201csavior\u201d of the world from the energy crisis. At least, that is the impression Russian propaganda is trying to impose. However, the USA is already taking this into account as it works to resolve issues in the global oil market. For instance, Washington has lifted some sanctions against Russia, specifically by granting India permission to purchase Russian oil. There is also growing talk in Europe about the need to resume purchasing Russian energy carriers. Moreover, this applies not only to Hungary or Slovakia; representatives of some other European countries are heeding their calls.<\/span><\/p>\n All of this strengthens Russia\u2019s international position, helps improve its economic situation, and enhances its ability to continue the war against Ukraine.<\/b><\/p>\n Thus, <\/span>politically<\/b>, Russia is gaining the opportunity to emerge from the international isolation imposed by Western countries. Moreover, the situation of 2009 could repeat itself, when the USA and Europe set out to \u201creset\u201d relations with Russia, which had deteriorated due to the Russian invasion of Georgia in August 2008. At the time, this was explained by the \u201cneed to join forces to jointly counter the global financial and economic crisis.\u201d In reality, however, Georgia was sacrificed.<\/span><\/p>\n If the United States and Europe were to adopt this approach again, they might even support Moscow\u2019s demands on Ukraine regarding the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, and even find grounds for resuming full-scale cooperation with Russia. In other words, instead of helping Ukraine, the USA and Europe would force it to capitulate and block its European and Euro-Atlantic integration.<\/span><\/p>\n In the <\/span>economic<\/b> sphere, Russia would have the opportunity to increase its oil and gas revenues, which account for the bulk of its state budget. This would allow Moscow not only to slow down the financial and economic crisis in the country but also to ensure positive growth in the Russian economy. This issue is particularly relevant for Russia given that its economy is transitioning from stagnation in 2025 to a recession beginning in early 2026. Indeed, compared to January of last year, Russia\u2019s GDP fell by 2% in January of this year. Meanwhile, industrial production volumes declined by approximately 5%.<\/span><\/p>\n Given this, Russian economists have concluded that there is a high probability of the country\u2019s financial and economic system collapsing as early as this summer. For now, such prospects are being put on hold.<\/span><\/p>\n On the <\/span>military<\/b> front, Moscow would be able to strengthen its capabilities in the ongoing war with Ukraine and intensify combat operations, as the state of the Russian economy would allow it to meet the material and financial demands of the war. At the same time, as already mentioned, the USA and Europe may reduce or even completely halt their aid to Ukraine. As a result, Russia would break out of its current strategic stalemate on the front lines and gain full initiative there. It would certainly take advantage of this, as it seeks to breach our defenses and achieve tangible successes in the war \u2013 that is, to accomplish what has so far been limited by the country\u2019s economic problems.<\/span><\/p>\n The scenario described above could be the best-case scenario for Russia and the worst-case scenario for Ukraine. In reality, everything will depend on the success of the USA and Israel in the war against Iran<\/b>. Specifically, the following three main scenarios are possible.<\/span><\/p>\n First<\/b>, the USA and Israel defeat Iran by the end of March this year. This is what US President Donald Trump is currently promising. According to his statement, \u201cthe war with Iran is nearing its end, as Tehran has nothing left to resist with. It has no navy, no communications, and no air force left.\u201d Based on this, D. Trump expressed confidence that the spike in oil prices is a short-term phenomenon.<\/span><\/p>\n The market reacted immediately to the US President\u2019s statement. Oil prices, which had exceeded $115 per barrel, fell to around $90. This confirmed the largely speculative nature of the rise in oil prices. Nevertheless, the USA and its partners are taking steps to stabilize the global oil market. In particular, the G7 member countries have agreed to release their strategic oil reserves.<\/span><\/p>\n Most likely, the price of oil will remain at this level for now, with periodic increases and declines. And once the USA and Israel achieve their goals, hostilities cease, and the Strait of Hormuz reopens, the price will drop to pre-war levels. Subsequently, once Iranian oil returns to the market, global oil prices will fall even more significantly. The target price is $50 per barrel, which is optimal for the USA and American oil companies.<\/span><\/p>\n As a result, Russia will be able to increase its oil and gas revenues by 70\u201380% and even exceed that level, as Europe resumes imports of Russian oil. But this will last no more than one or two months. After that, the situation for Russia will become even worse than it was before the war in the Middle East began. Indeed, the USA will take control of Iranian oil and will be able to manipulate prices on the global energy market. Therefore, Russia will only temporarily improve the state of its economy, or at best, postpone its collapse from summer to the autumn of this year. It will be able to continue the war against Ukraine at the current level of intensity for that same period.<\/span><\/p>\n Second<\/b>, the USA and Israeli military operation against Iran drags on until this autumn. When this becomes clear \u2013 that is, in April or May of this year \u2013 oil prices will skyrocket and may even reach $150\u2013200 per barrel. However, mechanisms to lower oil prices will kick in here, as its extremely high cost is not profitable even for hydrocarbon-producing countries. Thus, an excessive rise in oil prices will serve as an incentive for the development of alternative energy sources, which will reduce demand for it.<\/span><\/p>\n In particular, G7 member countries will continue to release oil from their strategic reserves onto the market. In addition, the United States and OPEC countries will increase oil production. It will also become economically viable to resume the development of shale hydrocarbon deposits. Oil production may also begin in Canada, which has reserves but has refrained from extraction for environmental reasons. Finally, existing oil pipelines from the Middle East to the Red Sea, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz, will be utilized, and construction of new ones will begin.<\/span><\/p>\n According to economists\u2019 forecasts, these measures will slow the rise in oil prices, which will stabilize at around $100 per barrel. And after the possible end of the war this autumn and the entry of Iranian oil into the market, its price will drop to around $50. Thus, Russia will have greater opportunities than in the first scenario to fill its state budget and continue the war against Ukraine. At least until the middle of next year.<\/span><\/p>\n Third<\/b>, military operations by the USA and Israel against Iran last more than a year and drag on indefinitely. Global oil prices will remain at around $100 and may rise. However, a sharp increase is unlikely due to the efforts of the aforementioned countries to stabilize the oil market. Moreover, measures that require more time to implement will also become effective.<\/span><\/p>\n Russia will receive relatively stable revenues at the same level as before 2025. Its ability to continue the war against Ukraine will remain the same. However, the situation for Russia will be quite ambiguous. On the one hand, a possible reduction in sanctions pressure on Russia will improve conditions for the functioning of its economy, while on the other hand, war expenditures will have a negative impact on it.<\/span><\/p>\n Currently, events are unfolding somewhere between the first and second scenarios.<\/b> The USA and Israel have completely destroyed Iran\u2019s air defense system, which has given them a free hand to launch strikes on Iranian territory. As a result, Iran is no longer able to retaliate. A significant reduction in Iran\u2019s missile and UAV launches has lowered the level of threat it poses to military bases in the USA, Israel, and other Middle Eastern countries. Moreover, they have begun to significantly strengthen their air defense systems, including with Ukraine\u2019s assistance. Following this, the USA and Israel are shifting their strikes to Iran\u2019s economic targets and infrastructure. Actually, they are doing the same thing Russia is doing in the war against Ukraine. However, our Western partners are trying to help us, while Iran remains alone against its adversaries. And the support provided to it by Russia and, possibly, China, in no way compensates for its war-related losses and damages. So, Iran is doomed. Its economy and infrastructure will be destroyed, paralyzing the state. At this, Iran\u2019s armed forces and the IRGC will lose the economic foundation for further resistance and begin to crumble. As a result, Iran\u2019s government will be forced to capitulate even without a ground operation by the USA and Israel. In that case, Washington and Tel Aviv may refrain from completely dismantling Iran\u2019s current government, leaving that matter to the country\u2019s internal authorities. In exchange, Iran\u2019s leadership would be forced to agree to transfer control of its oil and gas industry and energy resources to the USA, as well as to cease its anti-American and anti-Israeli policies. Depending on the ability of the USA and Israel to inflict critical damage on Iran\u2019s economy, the resilience of its government and security forces, and the patience of its population, the war will last from one to three or four months. Without external aid, it will not survive any longer. Moreover, there are no safe havens within Iran where any economic system could function to support other regions.<\/span><\/p>\n As noted above, the situation on the global energy market will stabilize after that. And after some time, when Iranian oil enters this market, its price will begin to decline. In other words, Russia can expect increased revenues for two to five months (the duration of the operation plus one month for the market to stabilize and for Iranian oil to return to it). That is how long Moscow will be able to wage war against Ukraine. It is likely that it will be able to seize additional territories of our country, but it will not succeed in achieving significant gains on the front lines.<\/span><\/p>\n Consequently, as expected, global oil prices have risen significantly due to the military operation by the USA and Israel against Iran. This affects the interests of most countries and has a negative impact on the global economy. In this situation, the USA, together with its partners, is attempting to stabilize the global energy market. First and foremost, this involves G7 members releasing their strategic oil reserves. Additionally, the USA has temporarily eased sanctions against Russia. If the war drags on, these precautionary measures will be supplemented by efforts to increase oil production by the USA and OPEC countries, as well as the development of alternative transportation routes, particularly to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Canada may also join the oil-producing nations.<\/b><\/p>\n At the same time, for now, rising global oil prices allow Russia to increase its budget revenues. This, in turn, enables it to sustain its economy and continue the war against Ukraine. Ultimately, however, it will not be able to win.<\/b><\/p>\n It is highly likely that the USA and Israel will succeed in forcing Iran to make concessions by destroying its military and economic capabilities by this autumn at the latest. After that, oil prices will fall, leaving Russia once again in an extremely difficult position.<\/b><\/p>\n Yuriy Ilchenko, Yuriy Ilchenko<\/p>\n The USA and Israel\u2019s military operation against Iran makes global oil prices rise<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":33142,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[261,260],"tags":[268],"class_list":["post-33141","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-publikacii","tag-ilchenko","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\n
\n<\/b>Institute for Global Politics<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"