{"id":33383,"date":"2026-04-07T00:01:27","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T21:01:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=33383"},"modified":"2026-04-07T15:30:43","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T12:30:43","slug":"majbutnye-nato-vikliki-v-umovax-novix-globalnix-zagroz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/en\/publikacii\/majbutnye-nato-vikliki-v-umovax-novix-globalnix-zagroz\/","title":{"rendered":"The Future of NATO: Challenges in the Face of New Global Threats"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Future of NATO: Challenges in the Face of New Global Threats<\/h1>\n

The war in the Middle East has brought to the forefront an important question regarding the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

The issue is not new; it stems from Donald Trump\u2019s conceptual vision, as he has criticized the United States\u2019 membership in NATO since his first presidential term. For example, in 2018, he harshly criticized the key Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, questioning the USA\u2019s obligation to participate in the defense of \u201ca small country like Montenegro, located thousands of kilometers away.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

The issue, of course, is not the size of the country or its distance from the United States. The reasons lie in the principles embedded in Trump\u2019s \u201cAmerica First\u201d concept: a foreign and domestic policy that prioritizes the USA\u2019s national interests over global commitments, alliances, or international agreements. The current White House leader\u2019s vision is based on economic nationalism, strict border protection, and a reduction in American military involvement abroad, grounded in \u201cprincipled realism\u201d. These are the main reasons why the Alliance operating on the principles established in 1949 does not suit Donald Trump.<\/span><\/p>\n

And although, in historical retrospect, the initiative to create a defense alliance of Western nations was Anglo-French, the North Atlantic Treaty was signed on April 4, 1949, by representatives of twelve states in Washington, D.C. NATO was founded with the support of the United States\u2019 initiative and active participation in those processes, as well as due to the UN\u2019s inability to ensure world peace at the time, when the USSR vetoed a significant number of the Organization\u2019s Security Council resolutions. Thus, the USA became the \u201cinspirer\u201d and organizer of the North Atlantic Alliance and, for over seventy years, expanded the Organization under its \u201csecurity umbrella\u201d, particularly on the European continent.<\/span><\/p>\n

The current occupant of the White House is breaking many traditional notions, mechanisms, and established global norms. Some of his statements and decisions seem to defy common sense. Now he has decided that the time has come to dismantle an international defense and security alliance founded on principles and structured in a way that no longer meets modern challenges. He recently made a sensational statement about the seriousness of the United States\u2019 intention to potentially withdraw from NATO.<\/span><\/p>\n

He reiterated this view to the British newspaper <\/span>The Daily Telegraph,<\/span><\/i> calling the Alliance without the USA a \u201cpaper tiger\u201d and its European allies \u201ccowards\u201d. The reason, in his view, was \u201cthe unwillingness of other member countries to support American objectives in Iran\u201d. Of course, this is not a reason, but an excuse \u2013 though, let\u2019s face it, a rather convenient one.<\/span><\/p>\n

As is well known, discussions on reforming the Alliance have intensified since 2018 [1]. Russia\u2019s large-scale armed aggression against Ukraine, which began in 2022, and then the USA\/ Israel war against Iran in 2026, have brought to the forefront issues of effectiveness, capability, and, by and large, the very point of NATO\u2019s existence in its current form.<\/span><\/p>\n

Currently, we can see reactions to D. Trump\u2019s rhetoric from Mark Rutte, Emmanuel Macron [2], Friedrich Merz, and Keir Starmer. President of the Czech Republic Petr Pavel has clearly stated that \u201cNATO was founded as a defensive alliance, whose primary mission is the collective defense of member states\u2019 territories\u201d. Citing Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, he pointed out that \u201cthe United States has not been attacked, and Iran is not a member of the Alliance; therefore, the participation of other NATO member states in a war in Iran makes no sense and does not correspond to the principles upon which the Alliance was founded.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

At the same time, Prime Minister of Italy Giorgia Meloni, in an interview with the <\/span>Financial Times<\/span><\/i>, disagreed with the notion that there is a need to \u201cchoose between the USA and Europe\u201d. She rejected such a \u201cchildish\u201d choice, asserting that she understands a leader who \u201cdefends his national interests\u201d. She condemned the \u201coverly political\u201d reaction of some European leaders to Donald Trump\u2019s remarks, emphasized that his approach to defense would serve as an \u201cincentive\u201d for Europe, and confirmed that she would continue to respect her country\u2019s \u201cforemost ally\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Also noteworthy is the position of the former US Special Envoy to Ukraine, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, who on April 2, 2026, stated on <\/span>Fox News<\/span><\/i> that there is a need to create military alliances as alternatives to NATO. \u201cWe need to rethink the defense structures we have, perhaps creating them with Japan and Australia, as well as with some of those European countries that are ready to go to war, such as a new, re-engaged Germany or Poland. Or even Ukraine, which has also proven itself to be a good ally,\u201d he emphasized.<\/span><\/p>\n

At the moment, it is difficult to say whether the USA will actually invoke Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty to withdraw from the Organization, but even in that case, the Alliance would have at least a year to reorganize [3]. The debate sparked within NATO by the White House chief\u2019s statements is only just beginning. What conclusions can be drawn at this point?<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>
Source: https:\/\/www.nato.int\/en\/what-we-do\/introduction-to-nato\/nato-summits?selectedLocale=u<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Donald Trump\u2019s statements can be viewed as pressure on Alliance member states, which, in turn, must urge their political leaders to take concrete action. This is how the system of interdependence works, even within the framework of strategic partnerships. The security threat \u201clooming\u201d over Alliance member states in Europe is forcing them to actively adapt. Indeed, if the USA were to withdraw from NATO, the North Atlantic Alliance would lose a significant portion of its military capabilities. In many areas, the USA maintains a balance with the capabilities of Canada and Europe and significantly outnumbers them in terms of aircraft and nuclear warheads (see infographic). This poses a real threat to the security of the Organization\u2019s member states; they must act quickly to urgently build up their own defense capabilities. The dynamic processes unfolding in the world leave NATO no choice but to begin the transition toward creating new capabilities during the 2026\u20132027 period, as agreed upon at the meeting in June 2025.<\/span><\/p>\n

And here, in fact, the question should be directed at the Organization itself: why, throughout the Organization\u2019s history and during the 38 summits held to assess and determine the Alliance\u2019s strategic priorities, was the pressing issue of NATO\u2019s transformation in response to the challenges of the new security environment never properly addressed? A possible answer lies in the fact that this cumbersome and bureaucratic Organization felt comfortable under the American military and financial \u201cumbrella\u201d, fulfilling every whim of its transatlantic partner while neglecting its own security concerns. This conscious dependence on Washington has turned into a threat to NATO. Over the years of repelling military aggression from the Russian Federation, we have seen firsthand the Alliance\u2019s defensive effectiveness \u2013 at the very least, as evidenced by Russian UAVs entering the territory of member states and the Alliance\u2019s response being limited to expressions of \u201cgrave concern\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Therefore, the Alliance must undergo a complete doctrinal and defense overhaul as soon as possible. It is not enough to simply build up defense production in the context of World War II-era challenges; rather, an updated Strategic Concept for countering modern threats must be urgently implemented.<\/span><\/p>\n

There is currently no clear answer to the question of whether the United States will withdraw from NATO. But what is undeniable is that the Organization itself must act more swiftly and be prepared to defend itself. This means that, to ensure their own security, member states\u2019 economies must shift to a wartime footing, reallocate their budgets in favor of the defense industry, introduce new rules and standards, restructure logistics and management systems, and undertake many other measures. Fragmentation or clustering of the Organization is also possible, as is the creation of military alliances alternative to NATO, in accordance with Keith Kellogg\u2019s statements.<\/span><\/p>\n

One doctrinal question requires clear legal regulation: can a single member of the Alliance independently launch a military attack on another country without the consent of the Organization\u2019s member states? If so, what should be the decisions and actions of the other coalition partner states? The US\/Israeli war in the Middle East has brought these issues to the forefront as well.<\/span><\/p>\n

We are accustomed to viewing the world in simplistic terms. A superficial assessment of current events leads to the conclusion that Trump\u2019s statements and actions weaken the Alliance and erode mutual trust. Furthermore, these actions can be seen as playing into the hands of Putin and other centers of influence in the Global South. But there is another \u201cside to the coin\u201d: such decisions spur the Organization toward reforms and accelerated modernization, which is desperately needed in today\u2019s security environment.<\/span><\/p>\n

The threat of the USA\u2019s possible withdrawal from the Alliance may be a Trump\u2019s pressure tactic aimed at boosting the defense capabilities of member states. The most painful blow to NATO could be the blocking of Alliance funding, the cessation of intelligence sharing, the failure to appoint an ambassador to NATO, and the withdrawal of US officers from NATO\u2019s Strategic Operations Command in Mons (Belgium). Let\u2019s not forget that there are about 100,000 US military servicemen in Europe, concentrated mainly in Germany, Italy, Poland, and the United Kingdom.<\/span><\/p>\n

Therefore, such statements from Washington should be taken seriously. If Donald Trump \u201cshuts down\u201d these resources, the European part of NATO will lose its ability to conduct large-scale operations, thereby turning the Alliance into the \u201cpaper tiger\u201d he speaks of. At the same time, this opens a \u201cwindow of opportunity\u201d for the Kremlin leader, whose goal is to divide the Alliance and regain influence on the continent. Ukraine, which remains entirely dependent on financial and military support from its Western partners, is also at the epicenter of this danger.<\/span><\/p>\n

It is becoming clear that, for security reasons, European states will have to urgently find ways to replace American defense capabilities not only in specific key areas (strategic intelligence, logistics, etc.), but also in the spheres of command, defense technologies, and industrial capacity. A \u201cEuropean NATO\u201d must become self-sufficient and independent in ensuring the continent\u2019s security in the context of 21<\/span>st<\/span> -century warfare.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Ukrainian Factor<\/b><\/p>\n

As is well known, Ukraine has a strategic course toward Alliance membership enshrined in its Constitution, the status of an Enhanced Opportunity Partner (since 2020), and is a participant in NATO\u2019s Enhanced Opportunity Partner (EOP) Program. The key instrument for implementing reforms in Ukraine with NATO\u2019s support is the Annual National Program of Ukraine-NATO Cooperation (ANP). The Joint Ukraine-NATO Center for Analysis, Training, and Education (JATEC), NATO\u2019s representative office in Ukraine, is actively operating in Kyiv.<\/span><\/p>\n

The question now arises: what kind of NATO are we striving for, and what standards must we meet? There is likely some truth in Keith Kellogg\u2019s words: Ukraine, which has \u201cproved itself to be a good ally\u201d, should be one of the leaders in the restructuring of NATO\u2019s defense structures, alongside European countries that are \u201cready to go to war\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

The Telegraph<\/span><\/i> correctly points out that Ukraine itself is becoming a guarantor of security for Alliance countries, which now particularly need Ukrainian experience and skills to be ready to repel aggression in modern warfare involving drones and robotic systems. Indeed, our country has a battle-hardened and combat-trained Army, modern defense technologies, and innovations \u2013 that is, what can significantly strengthen NATO and enhance its capabilities for future confrontations. We have, in Trump\u2019s terminology, \u201ctrump cards\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

Perhaps it is for the best that the issue of Ukraine\u2019s immediate membership is not yet being considered. For now, another priority issue must be resolved \u2013 the transformation of the Alliance itself, the introduction of a new architecture, doctrinal rules, and other standards.<\/span><\/p>\n

This dilemma has a purely political solution. A \u201cwindow of opportunity\u201d is now opening for our country to become one of the leaders in shaping a \u201cEuropean cluster NATO\u201d and to gain status and influence as a key player within it.<\/span><\/p>\n

The next NATO summit, scheduled for Ankara this summer, should provide answers to many complex questions.<\/span><\/p>\n

Yurii Romaniuk,
\n<\/b>expert on political and security issues,
\n<\/span>Candidate of Pedagogical Sciences<\/span><\/p>\n

Volodymyr Palyvoda,
\n<\/b>expert in international relations<\/span><\/p>\n

Notes:<\/b><\/span><\/p>\n

[1] Discussions on NATO reform intensified at the Brussels summit due to a convergence of several critical factors that called into question the Alliance\u2019s former model of operation.
\n<\/span>The administration of US President Donald Trump began openly and forcefully demanding that European allies increase defense spending to 2% of GDP. This sparked a debate on the need for internal reform of NATO\u2019s funding mechanisms and member obligations.
\n<\/span>At the 2018 summit, an initiative was put forward to enhance mobility and response speed (the so-called \u201c4×30\u201d readiness strategy): the Alliance was to be able to deploy 30 mechanized battalions, 30 air squadrons, and 30 combat ships within 30 days.
\n<\/span>It was during that period that NATO officially recognized cyberspace as a separate operational domain (alongside land, sea, and air). It was decided to establish a Cyber Operations Center and support teams to counter hybrid attacks, which required structural changes to the command system.<\/span>After
\n2014, the Alliance gradually shifted from \u201cout-of-area\u201d peacekeeping missions (such as in Afghanistan) back to collective defense tasks in Europe. In 2018, this process required a large-scale reform of the military command structure.
\n<\/span>The year 2018 marked a significant milestone when NATO clearly articulated its requirements for Ukraine regarding the transformation of its Armed Forces to Alliance standards and the establishment of civilian control over the Ministry of Defense.
\n<\/span>These events laid the foundation for the subsequent \u201cNATO 2030\u201d strategy, which formally marked the transition to a new phase of Alliance reform amid global competition and new technological challenges.
\n<\/span>[2] On April 3, 2026, during a visit to the Republic of Korea, President of France Emmanuel Macron called for the creation of a \u201ccoalition of the independent\u201d, which would bring together a number of countries to counter the United States\u2019 unpredictability and China\u2019s hegemony.
\n<\/span>[3] Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty states: \u201cTwenty years after the entry into force of this Treaty, any Party may terminate its participation in the Treaty one year after the deposit of a notice of termination with the Government of the United States of America, which shall inform the governments of the other Parties of depositing of each notice of termination\u201d. This presents an interesting situation. If Donald Trump follows through on his threat to withdraw from NATO, the US government will have to inform itself of this decision.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yurii Romaniuk,
\nVolodymyr Palyvoda<\/p>\n

The war in the Middle East has brought to the forefront an important question regarding the future of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":33384,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[261,260],"tags":[270,285],"class_list":["post-33383","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-publikacii","tag-palivoda","tag-romanyuk","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false},"fr":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\nThe Future of NATO: Challenges in the Face of New Global Threats - 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