The United States of America has completely changed its perception of Russia and Ukraine, as well as its stance on ways to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. This is evidenced by the international events in the summer of 2026 involving the leaders of the USA. Most likely, D. Trump has come to realize what Russia is really like \u2013 that it was Russia that started the war and has no desire to end it. Therefore, the USA has shifted from de facto support for Russia to tough measures aimed at forcing it to make peace, including increasing pressure on Russia across all fronts. In the very near future, Russia will suffer losses it cannot afford, which will undermine its economy and leave it unable to continue the war. The Kremlin will resist to the very end, trying to continue the war against Ukraine. But the combined forces of Ukraine, the USA and Europe are greater than Russia\u2019s, which may force V. Putin to agree to negotiations.<\/em><\/p>\n The \u201cSpirit of Anchorage\u201d has completely evaporated. The Kremlin\u2019s hopes that US President D. Trump would force Ukraine to accept Russia\u2019s terms for ending the war have finally collapsed.<\/strong> The USA has refused to impose Russia\u2019s demands on Ukraine \u2013 namely, the transfer of the entire Donbas region to Russia \u2013 as a condition for suspending hostilities and beginning negotiations.<\/p>\n Instead, the USA is shifting to a so-called strategy of exerting pressure on Russia in the political, economic, and military spheres. At the same time, new opportunities are emerging to initiate negotiations and define the principles for restoring peace in Ukraine on a compromise basis. Moreover, the USA is taking the interests of Ukraine and Europe into account to a much greater extent than it did last year. These changes began to take place as early as the second half of 2025 and became quite concrete this summer. This was confirmed by the USA\u2019s position at the G7 meeting in June of this year in France and at the NATO summit in July of this year in Ankara. These changes were further confirmed by meetings between US Secretary of State M. Rubio and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the RF S. Lavrov on July 23 in Manila (Philippines) on the sidelines of ASEAN events, as well as by meetings between US President D. Trump and Ukrainian President V. Zelenskyy this week in Washington.<\/p>\n The talks between the USA\u2019s and Ukraine\u2019s leaders were behind the closed doors. However, given their context and publicly available information, it is clear that agreements were reached to intensify joint pressure on Russia with the aim of forcing it to cease fire on the front lines and begin genuine negotiations to restore peace by mid-next autumn at the latest.<\/p>\n This is important to D. Trump, as it boosts the Republican Party\u2019s approval ratings ahead of the US midterm elections, which are scheduled for November of this year. Most Americans support Ukraine in its military confrontation with Russia, as well as the USA\u2019s efforts to provide assistance. Therefore, restoring peace in a way that takes Ukrainian interests into account \u2013 and even more so, a Ukrainian victory in the war \u2013 will be viewed positively in the USA, which will help strengthen the Republicans\u2019 standing.<\/p>\n For its part, Ukraine is keen to see hostilities suspended before the onset of cold weather, as it will be extremely difficult to survive another winter under Russian attacks on our energy infrastructure. And Russia will most likely attempt to destroy everything completely so that Ukraine is unable to continue its resistance.<\/p>\n By the start of winter, Ukraine will receive long-range ballistic missiles and will be capable of launching retaliatory strikes against Russian thermal power plants and other power generation facilities. But this will not make life any easier for Ukrainians who are without electricity and heat. Besides, the leaders of the USA and Ukraine have most likely finalized an agreement on expanding the supply of American weapons for our country\u2019s defense needs, as well as on granting Ukraine a license to manufacture missiles for the Patriot air defense system. This will enhance the defensive and offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and make a significant contribution to the effort to compel Russia to make peace. To flesh out these plans, a visit to Ukraine by US President\u2019s Special Representative S. Witkoff, as well as J. Kushner, an advisor to D. Trump, is scheduled for the near future. This will be their first visit to our country since the start of the full-scale war, which is quite significant.<\/p>\n President D. Trump\u2019s new views on Russia, Ukraine, and ways to end the Russian-Ukrainian war are markedly different from his previous ones and, at the same time, positive for our country. Therefore, it is important to know how consistent and realistic they are.<\/strong> To this end, we need to identify \u2013 or clarify \u2013 the reasons that led D. Trump to reconsider his position. In principle, these reasons are known, but it doesn\u2019t hurt to revisit them.<\/p>\n Indeed, in the long term, D. Trump has finally come to understand what Russia is all about and that it has, in fact, started the war \u2013 and is in no hurry to end it. At the same time, Russia has rejected all the USA\u2019s proposals to end the war on terms that would be entirely acceptable to it. Instead of ceasing hostilities along the front lines \u2013 which would make it possible to reduce military spending, revive the economy, and begin mutually beneficial cooperation with the USA \u2013 Russia continues its armed military confrontation. Virtually no one has an interest in this, except perhaps Putin, who views this conflict as a means of preserving his power, and senior Russian generals, who seek to enrich themselves through military operations. Some Russian oligarchs will also profit from the war. However, even they could earn more without it. And this is despite the fact that Russia has not only failed to achieve tangible success in the war but is beginning to lose the initiative to Ukraine. The Armed Forces of the RF continue active offensive operations on the front lines, but the pace of their advance has slowed sharply. And since May of this year, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been liberating more territory than the aggressor has been able to capture. Ukraine\u2019s advantages are also evidenced by operations disrupting Russia\u2019s oil industry and logistics systems, as well as the transport blockade of Crimea and the occupied territories in the South of Ukraine. All of this is well known, and further elaboration is unnecessary.<\/p>\n Ukraine has not won yet, but the groundwork for victory is taking shape. Russia, on the other hand, is growing weaker and losing its chances of achieving its war goals. Moreover, the economic crisis in Russia could lead to its defeat. Not to mention the fact that it has already lost geopolitically. Russia has lost its sphere of influence in the world, failed to stop NATO\u2019s expansion despite constantly declaring its intent to do so, and is ultimately becoming a satellite of China. All of this can be considered irreversible. That is why D. Trump has lost interest in Russia, which is now of no use to him. He cannot use Russia as a partner in the geopolitical competition between the USA and China, which is currently his top priority. Moreover, the crisis in Russia makes it impossible to implement important joint economic projects. This is especially true since the Russians\u2019 proposals are mostly frivolous \u2013 such as building a tunnel under the Bering Strait \u2013 or cannot be implemented for one reason or another.<\/p>\n Instead, a strengthening Ukraine is becoming more interesting to the USA. Ukraine already wields influence in Europe, and if it emerges victorious from the war, its influence will be even more significant. At the same time, it is a powerful military force that acts as a deterrent to Russia and is effectively integrated into the European and Euro-Atlantic security architecture. Given this, the USA has sided with Ukraine.<\/p>\n According to Washington\u2019s plans, providing aid to Ukraine in the war will enable the USA to make Ukraine its stronghold in Europe and a champion of American interests. In fact, the USA is already pursuing these interests through our country. Ukraine covers NATO\u2019s southeastern flank, which allows the USA to reduce its military presence in the Black Sea region and redirect resources toward countering China in the Asia-Pacific region.<\/p>\n At the same time, D. Trump has finally realized the importance of Europe in ensuring the USA\u2019s security and in other critical matters. Paradoxical as it may seem, however, the decision to normalize relations with Europe was most likely made by him after European allies refused to participate in the USA- Israel war against Iran. As a result, America\u2019s capabilities were diminished, which became one of the main reasons for its failures. D. Trump may also have recognized threats to America from Russia, which he had previously largely ignored. Therefore, the USA is preparing for deeper cooperation with Europe in the European theater of operations. In particular, plans to reduce US troop levels in European countries are being reconsidered.<\/p>\n Several additional current factors have served as catalysts for changes in US policy<\/strong>. For instance, Ukraine is currently the only European country that has assisted the USA and its Middle Eastern partners in conducting a military operation against Iran. As is well known, this refers to the transfer of expertise in countering Iranian UAVs. It is precisely this expertise that now forms the basis of the US troops\u2019 anti-drone defense system in the Middle East.<\/p>\n Added to this are the strikes carried out by Ukraine against Iranian ships in the Caspian Sea that were transporting weapons and military equipment. The USA is effectively at war with Iran, and Ukraine stands on the same side as the Americans. All of this has created even more favorable conditions for the meeting between V. Zelenskyy and D. Trump in Washington.<\/p>\n Another factor behind the shift in D. Trump\u2019s positions was the upcoming US congressional elections. This has already been mentioned above.<\/p>\n As part of their efforts to compel Russia to make peace, the USA and Europe have already stepped up their military and technical support for Ukraine and have taken additional measures to undermine Russia\u2019s economy by expanding the sanctions imposed against it.<\/strong> Indeed, it is precisely thanks to the increased supply of UAVs to Ukraine by the USA and Europe \u2013 as well as their assistance in both joint and purely Ukrainian production \u2013 that our country\u2019s Defense Forces have been able to intensify strikes against Russia\u2019s oil infrastructure. And since the third decade of July of this year, they have also been simultaneously targeting major logistics centers containing goods and products.<\/p>\n At the same time, on July 28 of this year, the US Senate passed the Graham-Blumenthal bill, which calls for the imposition of a 100% tariff on countries importing Russian and Iranian energy carriers. Once the congressional vacations end, this bill will most likely be passed by the House of Representatives and signed by D. Trump. He has a personal stake in this, as the law would give him significantly greater leverage to exert tariff pressure on other countries through their trade with Russia and Iran. He will not do this right now, however, as the US Supreme Court is overturning his tariff decisions.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, on July 23, the Council of the European Union finally adopted the 21st<\/sup> package of sanctions against Russia, which deals a significant blow to Russia\u2019s energy sector, financial services, and cryptocurrencies. It includes tough economic sanctions against key sectors that play a pivotal role in Russia\u2019s economy and determine its ability to continue the war against Ukraine. The sanctions package also includes the largest list in the past four years of individuals and entities subject to these restrictions.<\/p>\n At the same time, Ukraine, the USA and Europe are discussing ways to de-escalate the war as a first step toward suspending hostilities along the front lines.<\/strong> Most likely, this topic was also raised during the meeting between D. Trump and V. Zelenskyy in Washington. Specifically, options for a so-called \u201cair ceasefire\u201d are being proposed, which would involve Russia and Ukraine mutually ceasing missile and drone strikes on targets deep within each other\u2019s territory, as well as limiting hostilities to the Donbas region.<\/p>\n So far, such proposals have not been officially put forward. The only thing being tested was how the Kremlin would react to them. As expected, Putin rejected them. He says that an \u201cair ceasefire\u201d is not in his interest, since Russian strikes inflict greater damage on Ukraine than Ukrainian strikes do on Russia. Putin also has no intention of limiting the combat zone, since, in his view, the Russian army supposedly retains the strategic initiative along the entire front line and is successfully conducting an offensive. At this, for some reason, he is confident that Russia is capable of continuing the war, as its economy is in satisfactory condition and its problems are temporary. Although he may well understand what is actually happening, he is concealing this, hoping that Russia will still be able to defeat Ukraine in a war of attrition.<\/p>\n Therefore, the USA, together with Europe, will ramp up pressure on the leadership of the RF in order to force it to halt hostilities within the next two months.<\/strong><\/p>\n In the political sphere, a powerful and coordinated diplomatic and public relations campaign will be waged against Russia\u2019s government, demanding an end to the war along the front lines. This effort will be led by American and European leaders and their envoys, as well as representatives of other countries and international organizations.<\/p>\n An example of this approach was the aforementioned meeting between the heads of the US and Russian foreign ministries, during which Marco Rubio rejected Moscow\u2019s claims to the Donbas and made public Washington\u2019s position on the need to cease hostilities along the front lines. Incidentally, President of Kazakhstan K. Takaev also publicly advocated for an immediate ceasefire during his meeting with Putin on July 25 of this year in Omsk. According to him, he did so at the request of \u201cWestern capitals\u201d and serves as a channel of communication with them.<\/p>\n In the economic sphere, Washington and Brussels will sharply tighten sanctions against Russia, raising them to a level that is unacceptable to Russia. Currently, the European Union is considering imposing sanctions on more than 1,600 companies that are aiding the aggressor country in its war against Ukraine.<\/p>\n At the same time, the USA and Europe will work to enhance the Ukrainian Defense Forces\u2019 ability to undermine Russia\u2019s economy by disabling critical components of its oil, gas, electricity, and logistics infrastructure. This will accelerate the crisis in Russia\u2019s economy, which is already in a deep recession, although the Kremlin is still trying to conceal its true state. According to estimates by world-class American think tanks, an economic catastrophe in Russia will occur as early as this autumn, and Ukrainian strikes will speed up and deepen it.<\/p>\n In the military sphere, Western allies will increase military-technical assistance to Ukraine and lift all restrictions on its actions, including the use of Western weapons. This primarily refers to long-range missiles, drones, and air defense systems. In principle, Ukraine has sufficient supplies of everything else. Granting Ukraine licenses to manufacture Western weapons will help resolve this issue. These licenses provide a formal means of presenting Western equipment supplied to Ukraine as either jointly manufactured or produced solely by Ukraine.<\/p>\n Thanks to this, Ukraine will be able to inflict greater losses on the enemy, impose a strict blockade on Crimea and the occupied territories of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, and destroy key facilities of the Russian military-industrial complex. And then, perhaps, launch a large-scale counteroffensive in the South of the country. If it is thoroughly prepared \u2013 which is clearly what is happening now, unlike in 2023 \u2013 it will be effective. This is precisely what will force Putin to halt hostilities along the front lines, since otherwise he will lose everything. At this, there will be no negotiations with Russia other than on the issue of its unconditional cessation of hostilities along the front lines. D. Trump can only issue an ultimatum to Putin in one form or another.<\/p>\n Of course, the Kremlin will not lay down its arms immediately<\/strong>. It will continue to wage war against Ukraine and resist the West as long as it is able to do so. At this, Russian offensive operations on the front lines will intensify, and their aerial terror against Ukraine\u2019s civilian population and infrastructure will continue \u2013 and may even escalate. It is also possible that the Kremlin will announce a second phase of partial or general mobilization in the country.<\/p>\n But the combined forces of Ukraine, the USA and Europe are still greater, and this may force Putin to agree to genuine negotiations.<\/strong> All the more so because Ukraine has never been as strong as it is now, and the USA has demonstrated the political will to put an end to Putin\u2019s regime. At the very least, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy is open to the possibility of a meeting with the leaders of the USA and Russia in Washington to sign a ceasefire agreement by mid-fall of this year. However, this would not yet mean that the war is coming to an end.<\/p>\n So, the USA has changed its position and is refusing to impose Moscow\u2019s conditions for ending the war on Ukraine \u2013 specifically, the transfer of the entire Donbas region to Russia. Instead, the USA is shifting to exerting intense pressure on Russia to force it toward peace through political, economic, and military means by strengthening its support for Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n The reason for these changes is US President D. Trump\u2019s loss of interest in Russia. He cannot use Russia as a partner in the geopolitical competition between the United States and China, and the crisis in Russia makes it impossible to implement important joint economic projects.<\/strong><\/p>\n Instead, Ukraine is growing stronger and becoming more attractive to the USA as a potential champion of American interests in Europe. At this, our country\u2019s support for the USA in the war against Iran, as well as the approaching US congressional elections, are having a significant impact on D. Trump\u2019s stance toward Ukraine.<\/strong><\/p>\n Of course, the Kremlin won\u2019t give up without a fight. It will continue the war against Ukraine as long as it has the opportunity to. But by standing united, Ukraine, the USA and Europe will be able to force Putin to agree to genuine negotiations.<\/strong><\/p>\n Yurii Ilchenko, Yurii Ilchenko<\/p>\n The United States of America has completely changed its perception of Russia and Ukraine, as well as its stance on ways to end the Russian-Ukrainian war<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":34251,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[261,260],"tags":[268],"class_list":["post-34250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-publikacii","tag-ilchenko","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"en","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\n
\n<\/strong>Institute for Global Politics<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"