{"id":28645,"date":"2025-04-07T07:00:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-07T04:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=28645"},"modified":"2025-04-25T20:18:06","modified_gmt":"2025-04-25T17:18:06","slug":"alternativnij-poglyad","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/fr\/publikacii\/alternativnij-poglyad\/","title":{"rendered":"Une vision alternative des perspectives de fin de la guerre."},"content":{"rendered":"
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Une vision alternative des perspectives de fin de la guerre<\/h1>\n
Actuellement, la plupart des \u00e9valuations relatives aux perspectives de fin de la guerre sont de nature sceptique. Dans le m\u00eame temps, il semble que la Russie domine les \u00c9tats-Unis et l\u2019Ukraine et soit capable de leur imposer sa volont\u00e9. En fait, tout n\u2019est pas du tout comme \u00e7a. Les n\u00e9gociations sont vraiment difficiles. Cependant, elles ne sont pas du tout d\u00e9sesp\u00e9r\u00e9es pour l\u2019Ukraine si l\u2019on parle de ses int\u00e9r\u00eats dans la d\u00e9termination des conditions de r\u00e9tablissement de la paix. Les \u00c9tats-Unis ne se sont pas rang\u00e9s du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de la Russie, ne la soutiennent pas et ont la capacit\u00e9 de l\u2019influencer. \u00c0 son tour, Moscou perd la capacit\u00e9 de poursuivre sa politique agressive. Compte tenu de tout cela, la guerre prendra fin sur la base de compromis et de concessions mutuelles entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine. Malheureusement, ces mesures ne seront pas enti\u00e8rement b\u00e9n\u00e9fiques pour l\u2019Ukraine, mais elles n\u2019auront pas non plus de cons\u00e9quences critiques pour elle.<\/div>\n
\"\"<\/a>L\u2019Ukraine veut la paix<\/strong>. Et cela est clair pour tout le monde, m\u00eame pour ceux de nos ennemis qui sont encore au moins minimalement ad\u00e9quats. Les exceptions sont les \u00ab personnes rachistes \u00bb pathologiques et les victimes de la propagande russe, tant en Russie m\u00eame qu\u2019en Europe et aux \u00c9tats-Unis. Cependant, nous ne pouvons pas accepter la paix que Moscou nous impose sous r\u00e9serve de la capitulation de l\u2019Ukraine et de la destruction effective de son Etat. C\u2019est pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment la raison pour laquelle l\u2019Ukraine m\u00e8ne une lutte arm\u00e9e contre la Russie et continuera de le faire, quel qu\u2019en soit le prix.<\/div>\n

Dans le m\u00eame temps<\/h2>\n
l\u2019Ukraine ne refuse pas les n\u00e9gociations de paix, qui constituent sa principale priorit\u00e9. Sa participation active au processus de n\u00e9gociation initi\u00e9 par le pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Donald Trump en est un t\u00e9moignage. Dans le m\u00eame temps, l\u2019Ukraine d\u00e9fend fermement ses int\u00e9r\u00eats qui sont son droit et son devoir envers sa nation.<\/div>\n
Formellement, la Russie accepte \u00e9galement de n\u00e9gocier, mais avec des objectifs compl\u00e8tement diff\u00e9rents de ceux de l\u2019Ukraine. Ils sont bien connus et ne n\u00e9cessitent pas d\u2019explications suppl\u00e9mentaires. De plus, ce sont pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment les d\u00e9saccords fondamentaux entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine qui d\u00e9terminent la grande complexit\u00e9 des n\u00e9gociations et les font tra\u00eener en longueur.<\/div>\n
C\u2019est tout \u00e0 fait compr\u00e9hensible et objectif. Cela explique \u00e9galement le manque de la clart\u00e9 totale quant \u00e0 l\u2019avancement des n\u00e9gociations et \u00e0 leurs perspectives. Surtout quand ils sont essentiellement ferm\u00e9s et que seuls des moments individuels sont rendus publics. \u00c9tant donn\u00e9 la grande sensibilit\u00e9 des questions d\u00e9battues par les parties, une telle approche est probablement correcte, m\u00eame si elle d\u00e9soriente la soci\u00e9t\u00e9.<\/div>\n
Les commentaires sur le processus de n\u00e9gociation qui apparaissent dans les m\u00e9dias ajoutent \u00e9galement une incertitude significative. Fondamentalement, de tels commentaires ne correspondent pas \u00e0 la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 et d\u00e9pendent du point de vue d\u2019un expert particulier, des r\u00e9cits d\u2019information dominants et des ordres politiques. Et dans certains cas, il y a des falsifications flagrantes qui sont pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es par les m\u00e9dias comme des faits fiables.<\/div>\n
Tout cela a cr\u00e9\u00e9 un contexte d\u2019information n\u00e9gative stable pour l\u2019Ukraine autour des n\u00e9gociations, contenant un certain nombre de points \u00e9vidents. Les principales raisons sont la conviction que les n\u00e9gociations sont vou\u00e9es \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chec en raison de divergences fondamentales entre l\u2019Ukraine et la Russie, et que Poutine ne veut pas la paix et fait tra\u00eener le processus de n\u00e9gociation afin de s\u2019emparer d\u2019autant de territoire ukrainien que possible et de forcer l\u2019Ukraine \u00e0 capituler.<\/div>\n
D\u2019autres affirmations similaires sugg\u00e8rent que la normalisation des relations entre les \u00c9tats-Unis et la Russie est essentielle pour Donald Trump, ce qui l\u2019am\u00e8ne \u00e0 faire des concessions \u00e0 la Russie et \u00e0 encourager l\u2019Ukraine \u00e0 accepter des conditions de paix d\u00e9favorables. Poutine semble \u00eatre un homme politique plus fort que Donald Trump, et en le manipulant, il le surpasse. Toutes les d\u00e9cisions sont prises sans la participation de l\u2019Ukraine, et l\u2019Europe n\u2019est pas autoris\u00e9e \u00e0 participer \u00e0 de telles questions.<\/div>\n
Eh bien, une partie de ce qui pr\u00e9c\u00e8de est effectivement vrai. Cependant, la situation est en r\u00e9alit\u00e9 bien diff\u00e9rente. Essayons de traiter cela de mani\u00e8re impartiale. Les conclusions peuvent sembler erron\u00e9es, comme si elles contredisaient les points de vue \u00e9tablis, mais elles ne sont pas bas\u00e9es sur des \u00e9motions, des faux ou des choses \u00e9videntes, mais sur des faits et des \u00e9v\u00e9nements r\u00e9els. Bien que les \u00e9valuations et conclusions qui seront pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es ci-dessous ne soient pas des dogmes et soient ouvertes \u00e0 une large discussion. Pour plus de commodit\u00e9, nous les diviserons en plusieurs blocs.<\/div>\n

\"\"<\/a>Premi\u00e8rement. La Russie et l\u2019Ukraine ont des divergences fondamentales<\/h2>\n
Deuxi\u00e8mement. Poutine ne veut pas que la guerre s’\u00e9ternise, mais qu’il atteigne ses objectifs le plus rapidement possible.<\/div>\n
Troisi\u00e8mement. L’am\u00e9lioration des relations avec la Russie n’est pas essentielle pour Donald Trump<\/div>\n
Quatri\u00e8mement. Les \u00c9tats-Unis ne prennent aucune d\u00e9cision sur les conditions de fin de la guerre dans le dos de l\u2019Ukraine et de l\u2019Europe.<\/div>\n
Cinqui\u00e8mement. Poutine n\u2019est pas un homme politique plus fort que Donald Trump<\/div>\n
En g\u00e9n\u00e9ral, les circonstances ci-dessus nous permettent de tirer les conclusions suivantes :<\/div>\n
\u25cf Les n\u00e9gociations visant \u00e0 mettre fin \u00e0 la guerre de la Russie contre l\u2019Ukraine sont en cours et progressent, m\u00eame si elles sont extr\u00eamement complexes et n\u00e9cessitent un temps consid\u00e9rable. Ceci est de nature objective et ne peut en \u00eatre autrement ;<\/div>\n
\u25cf la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine seront toutes deux contraintes de faire des concessions et des compromis mutuels. Ils ne satisferont aucune des deux parties, mais ils n\u2019ont pas d\u2019alternative. De plus, ni la Russie ni l\u2019Ukraine ne pourront obtenir d\u2019avantages d\u00e9cisifs qui leur permettraient de parler de victoire ;<\/div>\n
\u25cf Jusqu\u2019\u00e0 ce qu\u2019un cessez-le-feu soit conclu, les hostilit\u00e9s resteront \u00e0 un niveau d\u2019intensit\u00e9 \u00e9lev\u00e9, du moins au niveau actuel. De plus, ils peuvent m\u00eame devenir actifs, ce qui est une pratique courante.<\/div>\n
Et, en conclusion, je voudrais souligner que m\u00eame la conclusion d\u2019une paix \u00e0 long terme, juste et globale entre la Russie et l\u2019Ukraine ne signifiera pas la fin de la confrontation entre elles. Les options possibles pour des d\u00e9veloppements ult\u00e9rieurs seront examin\u00e9es dans les articles qui vont suivre.<\/div>\n
Youri Mikha\u00eflenko<\/strong><\/div>\n
Institut de Politique Globale<\/strong><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Yuri Mikhailenko<\/p>\n

M\u00eame la conclusion d’une paix \u00e0 long terme, juste et globale entre la Russie et l’Ukraine ne signifiera pas la fin de la confrontation entre les deux pays….<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":28701,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[261,256,260,255],"tags":[272],"class_list":["post-28645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-vijna","category-publikacii","category-ukrana","tag-mixajlenko","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"fr","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":false,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":true,"content":false,"excerpt":true}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\nUne vision alternative des perspectives de fin de la guerre. - 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