{"id":29546,"date":"2025-05-17T09:12:09","date_gmt":"2025-05-17T06:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=29546"},"modified":"2025-05-19T05:30:22","modified_gmt":"2025-05-19T02:30:22","slug":"peregovori-v-turechchini-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/fr\/publikacii\/peregovori-v-turechchini-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"N\u00e9gociations en Turquie 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Pourquoi Poutine a-t-il envoy\u00e9 une d\u00e9l\u00e9gation de troisi\u00e8me ordre en Turquie pour n\u00e9gocier avec l’Ukraine ?<\/h1>\n
Pourquoi son dirigeant a-t-il formul\u00e9 des exigences clairement inacceptables et totalement irr\u00e9alistes ?<\/div>\n
Il est \u00e9vident que les Russes n’\u00e9taient manifestement pas d’humeur \u00e0 des n\u00e9gociations constructives. Il est donc inutile de revenir sur les d\u00e9clarations des membres de la d\u00e9l\u00e9gation russe, et encore moins d’analyser leur position. Poutine leur a probablement donn\u00e9 pour mission de d\u00e9tourner l’attention du probl\u00e8me principal, en bluffant et en gagnant du temps.<\/div>\n
Il est difficile de comprendre pourquoi il en a besoin et quel objectif il cherche \u00e0 atteindre par une telle man\u0153uvre.<\/div>\n
En m\u00eame temps, toute la bravade du pr\u00e9sident russe et de ses propagandistes peine \u00e0 masquer le fait que l’absence de succ\u00e8s plus ou moins significatifs sur le front russo-ukrainien indique que les objectifs de la soi-disant SVO (Op\u00e9ration militaire sp\u00e9ciale) n’ont pas \u00e9t\u00e9 et ne seront pas atteints.<\/div>\n
Il est \u00e9galement notoire que cette guerre \u00e9puise les ressources humaines, financi\u00e8res et mat\u00e9rielles non seulement de l’Ukraine, mais aussi de la Russie.<\/div>\n
M\u00eame si l’on suppose que la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie compte aujourd’hui 140 millions d’habitants, bien que leur nombre r\u00e9el soit bien inf\u00e9rieur, ces ressources humaines ne suffiront manifestement pas \u00e0 conqu\u00e9rir l’Ukraine. De plus, elles pourraient tr\u00e8s bient\u00f4t ne plus suffire \u00e0 prot\u00e9ger le vaste territoire russe.<\/div>\n
\"\"<\/a>Si des forces politiques m\u00e9contentes des r\u00e9sultats de la guerre avec l’Ukraine apparaissent en F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie et que les mouvements s\u00e9paratistes s’intensifient, notamment dans le Caucase du Nord, la Russie n’aura plus le temps de conqu\u00e9rir l’Ukraine.<\/div>\n
Il est fort possible qu’une situation politique similaire \u00e0 celle de 1917 se reproduise en F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie. On sait que les \u00e9v\u00e9nements de ces ann\u00e9es se sont sold\u00e9s par l’effondrement de l’Empire russe et la formation de plusieurs \u00c9tats ind\u00e9pendants sur ses ruines. Si l’on observe la carte politique de l’Europe en 1918, on constate qu’\u00e0 l’est, outre l’Ukraine, se formaient l’Arm\u00e9e du Grand Don et la R\u00e9publique populaire du Kouban, et que les peuples du Caucase du Nord formaient une sorte de conf\u00e9d\u00e9ration appel\u00e9e la R\u00e9publique des Montagnes.<\/div>\n
La principale cause de l’effondrement de l’Empire russe fut sa d\u00e9faite lors de la Premi\u00e8re Guerre mondiale, et la situation politique actuelle en Russie est tr\u00e8s similaire \u00e0 celle d’il y a un si\u00e8cle. Malgr\u00e9 les d\u00e9clarations de Poutine et de ses propagandistes qui se disent pr\u00eats \u00e0 se battre sans rel\u00e2che, il s’agit clairement de bluff.<\/div>\n
Il est \u00e9vident que chaque jour de guerre \u00e9puise non seulement l’Ukraine, mais aussi la Russie. C’est pourquoi les deux camps souhaitent aujourd’hui une tr\u00eave, car leurs arm\u00e9es ont besoin de repos, de r\u00e9cup\u00e9ration et de regroupement. Parall\u00e8lement, pour une raison inconnue, la Russie continue de se comporter de mani\u00e8re agressive et irrationnelle, bien qu’elle soit loin d’\u00eatre dans une position optimale, et sa rh\u00e9torique belliqueuse n’effraie personne depuis longtemps.<\/div>\n
Aujourd’hui, la Russie n’est sauv\u00e9e d’une d\u00e9faite totale dans la guerre contre l’Ukraine que par la loyaut\u00e9 du pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Donald Trump envers Poutine, qui, pour une raison inconnue, a d\u00e9cid\u00e9 que la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie pouvait devenir l’alli\u00e9e des \u00c9tats-Unis dans sa confrontation avec la Chine.<\/div>\n
Parall\u00e8lement, il convient de noter que l’Allemagne, la France, la Grande-Bretagne et la Pologne manifestent un m\u00e9contentement croissant face \u00e0 cette guerre. La Turquie adopte une position similaire. Si la Russie persiste \u00e0 s’obstiner et \u00e0 ne pas abandonner ses exigences absurdes, et que l’Europe et la Turquie commencent \u00e0 interagir plus activement avec l’Ukraine, la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie subira certainement une d\u00e9faite. En cons\u00e9quence, de nouvelles alliances et de nouveaux blocs militaro-politiques pourraient appara\u00eetre prochainement au niveau r\u00e9gional, cr\u00e9ant ainsi les conditions n\u00e9cessaires \u00e0 une paix et une stabilit\u00e9 durables dans la r\u00e9gion et compensant toutes les pertes dues au refus de facto des \u00c9tats-Unis de diriger le monde d\u00e9mocratique mondial.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Oleg Bereziuk,<\/strong><\/div>\n
Institut de Politique Globale<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oleg Bereziuk<\/p>\n

Pourquoi Poutine a-t-il envoy\u00e9 une d\u00e9l\u00e9gation de troisi\u00e8me ordre en Turquie pour n\u00e9gocier avec l’Ukraine ?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":29547,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[263,260],"tags":[273],"class_list":["post-29546","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-podi-faktit-komentari","category-publikacii","tag-berezyuk","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"fr","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\nN\u00e9gociations en Turquie 2025 - 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