{"id":30378,"date":"2025-07-06T00:05:37","date_gmt":"2025-07-05T21:05:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=30378"},"modified":"2025-07-06T11:28:27","modified_gmt":"2025-07-06T08:28:27","slug":"strategichna-pomilka-putina","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/fr\/publikacii\/strategichna-pomilka-putina\/","title":{"rendered":"L’erreur strat\u00e9gique de Poutine"},"content":{"rendered":"

La plus grande erreur strat\u00e9gique du pr\u00e9sident russe Vladimir Poutine a \u00e9t\u00e9 sa d\u00e9cision d’envahir l’Ukraine.<\/h1>\n

Aujourd’hui, la Russie, \u00e9puis\u00e9e par la guerre, perd rapidement ses positions dans les territoires qu’elle contr\u00f4lait autrefois, notamment dans le Caucase du Sud.<\/p>\n

Il est d’ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 \u00e9vident que le conflit entre la Russie et l’Azerba\u00efdjan va se poursuivre et aura tr\u00e8s probablement des cons\u00e9quences extr\u00eamement n\u00e9gatives pour la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie.<\/p>\n

L’abattage d’un avion civil azerba\u00efdjanais par les Russes au-dessus de l’a\u00e9roport de Grozny, les brutalit\u00e9s des forces de l’ordre russes contre les repr\u00e9sentants de la nation azerba\u00efdjanaise vivant sur le territoire de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie, les menaces prof\u00e9r\u00e9es contre l’Azerba\u00efdjan par les chauvins russes et les propagandistes inv\u00e9t\u00e9r\u00e9s du Kremlin\u2026 Tout cela conduit \u00e0 une escalade du conflit russo-azerba\u00efdjanais, qui pourrait bien d\u00e9g\u00e9n\u00e9rer en affrontement arm\u00e9 direct.<\/p>\n

Dans une telle situation, Poutine n’a aucune chance de victoire facile, ou plus pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment, la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie subira tr\u00e8s probablement une d\u00e9faite dans un affrontement arm\u00e9 avec l’Azerba\u00efdjan. Le fait est que les ressources militaires et \u00e9conomiques de la Russie ont \u00e9t\u00e9 consid\u00e9rablement r\u00e9duites par la guerre en Ukraine, tandis que l’Azerba\u00efdjan dispose d’une arm\u00e9e moderne et bien \u00e9quip\u00e9e. De plus, la Turquie, qui poss\u00e8de la deuxi\u00e8me arm\u00e9e de l’OTAN apr\u00e8s les \u00c9tats-Unis, se rangera certainement du c\u00f4t\u00e9 de l’Azerba\u00efdjan. La Russie ne pourra pas non plus compter sur le soutien de l’Iran, car lors du dernier affrontement arm\u00e9 isra\u00e9lo-iranien, Poutine a adopt\u00e9 une position quasi neutre, trahissant de fait son alli\u00e9 strat\u00e9gique au Moyen-Orient.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>En cas d’invasion russe, Isra\u00ebl fournira une assistance militaire et technique \u00e0 l’Azerba\u00efdjan, qui pourra ainsi \u00ab remercier \u00bb les Russes pour la fourniture d’armes au groupe terroriste anti-isra\u00e9lien Hamas.<\/p>\n

Une confrontation arm\u00e9e directe entre la Russie et l’Azerba\u00efdjan pourrait provoquer une nouvelle vague de mouvements de lib\u00e9ration nationale parmi les peuples du Caucase du Nord, qui r\u00eavent depuis longtemps de se lib\u00e9rer de la d\u00e9pendance coloniale russe et attendent simplement le moment opportun. Le facteur d\u00e9mographique jouera \u00e9galement un r\u00f4le important. Selon des informations r\u00e9cemment publi\u00e9es par des responsables politiques et des experts russes oppos\u00e9s \u00e0 Poutine, la population de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie ne d\u00e9passe pas aujourd’hui 90 millions d’habitants. Il est \u00e9vident que si un nouveau front s’ouvrait, les Russes n’auraient plus personne pour d\u00e9fendre leur propre territoire. Plus de trois ans et demi de guerre entre la Russie et l’Ukraine en sont la preuve \u00e9clatante, car il est devenu \u00e9vident pour tous que l’arm\u00e9e russe n’est pas aussi puissante qu’on le pensait.<\/p>\n

Par ailleurs, il est de notori\u00e9t\u00e9 publique qu’au d\u00e9but de l’invasion arm\u00e9e de l’Ukraine, Poutine a tent\u00e9 de renforcer son potentiel militaire en mobilisant des ressources humaines du Caucase du Nord. Il a ainsi r\u00e9solu simultan\u00e9ment deux probl\u00e8mes : un probl\u00e8me militaire externe et un probl\u00e8me d\u00e9mographique interne, qui affecte directement la s\u00e9curit\u00e9 et la stabilit\u00e9 sociopolitique de cette r\u00e9gion de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie, \u00e9conomiquement d\u00e9favoris\u00e9e et tr\u00e8s dens\u00e9ment peupl\u00e9e, et donc la plus explosive.<\/p>\n

On sait que de nombreux Tch\u00e9tch\u00e8nes, Ingouches et Daghestanais mobilis\u00e9s par la Russie ont p\u00e9ri sur le front russo-ukrainien. Il est fort probable que si la situation militaro-politique dans le Caucase \u00e9volue, leurs proches pr\u00e9senteront des factures en cons\u00e9quence \u00e0 Poutine et n’entreront certainement pas en guerre contre leurs coreligionnaires.<\/p>\n

L’avenir nous dira comment les \u00e9v\u00e9nements dans le Caucase \u00e9volueront, mais on peut d’ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 affirmer que la politique \u00ab sage \u00bb de Poutine, apr\u00e8s l’attaque arm\u00e9e contre l’Ukraine, a conduit \u00e0 l’\u00e9largissement de l’OTAN et \u00e0 son acc\u00e8s direct aux fronti\u00e8res nord de la Russie. En cas d’invasion de l’Azerba\u00efdjan, la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie risque \u00e9galement d’envoyer des troupes de l’OTAN \u00e0 ses fronti\u00e8res sud. De plus, elle pourrait alors entrer en confrontation arm\u00e9e directe avec eux, car l’arm\u00e9e turque, membre de l’OTAN, d\u00e9fendra certainement l’Azerba\u00efdjan.<\/p>\n

Si la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie continue de menacer tout le monde avec des armes et de mener une politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re agressive, le pronostic est tr\u00e8s d\u00e9cevant. Il est fort possible que ses forces s’\u00e9puisent rapidement, ce qui aboutira certainement \u00e0 une confrontation interne, \u00e0 l’effondrement complet de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie et \u00e0 la disparition d\u00e9finitive de cette entit\u00e9 \u00e9tatique de la carte politique mondiale.<\/p>\n

Oleg Berezyuk,
\n<\/strong>Institut de Politique Globale<\/p>\n

(Images sont g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9es par intelligence artificielle)<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oleg Berezyuk<\/p>\n

La plus grande erreur strat\u00e9gique du pr\u00e9sident russe Vladimir Poutine a \u00e9t\u00e9 sa d\u00e9cision d’envahir l’Ukraine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":30390,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[263,260],"tags":[273],"class_list":["post-30378","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-podi-faktit-komentari","category-publikacii","tag-berezyuk","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"fr","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\nL'erreur strat\u00e9gique de Poutine - Global Policy Institute<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/publikacii\/strategichna-pomilka-putina\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"fr_FR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"L'erreur strat\u00e9gique de Poutine - Global Policy Institute\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/publikacii\/strategichna-pomilka-putina\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Global Policy Institute\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-07-05T21:05:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-07-06T08:28:27+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/azer1.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"187\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Vladimir\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Vladimir\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"5 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/igp.org.ua\\\/publikacii\\\/strategichna-pomilka-putina\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/igp.org.ua\\\/publikacii\\\/strategichna-pomilka-putina\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Vladimir\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/igp.org.ua\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/183f5573a75f3cc0f668a1034203cc5b\"},\"headline\":\"L’erreur strat\u00e9gique de Poutine\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-07-05T21:05:37+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-07-06T08:28:27+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/igp.org.ua\\\/publikacii\\\/strategichna-pomilka-putina\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":2782,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/igp.org.ua\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/igp.org.ua\\\/publikacii\\\/strategichna-pomilka-putina\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/igp.org.ua\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/azer1.png\",\"keywords\":[\"\u0411\u0435\u0440\u0435\u0437\u044e\u043a\"],\"articleSection\":[\"\u00c9v\u00e9nements, faits, commentaires\",\"Publications\"],\"inLanguage\":\"fr-FR\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/igp.org.ua\\\/publikacii\\\/strategichna-pomilka-putina\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/igp.org.ua\\\/publikacii\\\/strategichna-pomilka-putina\\\/\",\"name\":\"L'erreur strat\u00e9gique de Poutine - 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