{"id":31027,"date":"2025-08-12T08:15:54","date_gmt":"2025-08-12T05:15:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=31027"},"modified":"2025-08-12T11:34:41","modified_gmt":"2025-08-12T08:34:41","slug":"ukraina-nachinaet-vystraivat-sobstvennuyu-sistemu-regionalnoj-bezopasnosti","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/fr\/publikacii\/ukraina-nachinaet-vystraivat-sobstvennuyu-sistemu-regionalnoj-bezopasnosti\/","title":{"rendered":"L’Ukraine commence \u00e0 construire son propre syst\u00e8me de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gional"},"content":{"rendered":"

Alors que les acteurs politiques internationaux s’interrogent sur la strat\u0439gie \u0430 adopter face \u0430 la Russie, l’Ukraine commence \u0430 construire son propre syst\u0438me de s\u0439curit\u0439 r\u0439gional.<\/span><\/h1>\n

Ainsi, le 8 ao\u00fbt, une r\u00e9union au niveau des ministres des Affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res d’Ukraine, de Roumanie et de Moldavie s’est tenue \u00e0 Tchernivtsi, en Ukraine. Les ministres des Affaires \u00e9trang\u00e8res de Lituanie et de Pologne ont \u00e9galement particip\u00e9 \u00e0 cet \u00e9v\u00e9nement \u00e0 distance. Ce forum international a \u00e9t\u00e9 officiellement baptis\u00e9 \u00ab Triangle d’Odessa \u00bb, en hommage \u00e0 la ville o\u00f9 une telle r\u00e9union s’est tenue en 2022.<\/span><\/p>\n

Lors des discussions sur les questions de s\u00e9curit\u00e9, l’Ukraine, la Roumanie et la Moldavie ont convenu de cr\u00e9er une cyberalliance r\u00e9gionale afin de faire face aux d\u00e9fis et menaces modernes, principalement ceux de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie. Les parties ont \u00e9galement d\u00e9cid\u00e9 de nommer des coordinateurs r\u00e9gionaux charg\u00e9s de l’interaction et de la mise en \u0153uvre des accords.<\/span><\/p>\n

Pendant le forum ukraino-roumano-moldave, les \u00ab shaheds \u00bb russes ont continu\u00e9 de bombarder l’Ukraine et ont attaqu\u00e9 un d\u00e9p\u00f4t p\u00e9trolier de la compagnie azerba\u00efdjanaise SOCAR dans la r\u00e9gion d’Odessa.<\/span><\/p>\n

Dans la nuit du 8 ao\u00fbt, les Russes ont \u00e9galement frapp\u00e9 la station de distribution de gaz d’Orlovka, \u00e0 la fronti\u00e8re avec la Roumanie qui constitue un \u00e9l\u00e9ment important du corridor transbalkanique par lequel le gaz azerba\u00efdjanais devrait \u00eatre achemin\u00e9 vers l’Ukraine.<\/span><\/p>\n

Quel est l’objectif des Russes avec leurs attaques constantes contre les infrastructures civiles ?<\/span><\/p>\n

Ils ont probablement d\u00e9j\u00e0 compris qu’ils ne peuvent pas gagner la guerre contre l’Ukraine et, par cons\u00e9quent, dans un acc\u00e8s de col\u00e8re, ils cherchent \u00e9galement \u00e0 nuire \u00e0 leurs autres voisins.<\/span><\/p>\n

La logique voudrait que, dans de telles circonstances, tous les pays limitrophes de la Russie s’unissent et contrent ensemble la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re agressive de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie. Le \u00ab Triangle d’Odessa \u00bb pourrait alors marquer le d\u00e9but de la cr\u00e9ation d’un nouveau bloc de d\u00e9fense r\u00e9gional auquel d’autres parties prenantes pourraient \u00e9ventuellement se joindre. Cependant, si seules l’Ukraine, la Roumanie et la Moldavie adh\u00e9raient \u00e0 une telle alliance de d\u00e9fense, cela constituerait d\u00e9j\u00e0 un moyen de dissuasion important pour les Russes. Si l’on compte la population de ces trois pays, elle s’\u00e9l\u00e8ve au total \u00e0 environ 65 millions d’habitants, soit pr\u00e8s de la moiti\u00e9 de la population de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie. Un d\u00e9tail important est toutefois \u00e0 noter : les Ukrainiens, les Roumains et les Moldaves vivent de mani\u00e8re compacte sur un territoire europ\u00e9en d’environ 875 000 kilom\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s, tandis que 143 millions de Russes sont dispers\u00e9s sur 17 millions de kilom\u00e8tres carr\u00e9s. (La F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie couvre plus d’un huiti\u00e8me des terres \u00e9merg\u00e9es en Europe et en Asie et s’\u00e9tend sur 11 fuseaux horaires.)<\/span><\/p>\n

Cela signifie que les Russes manqueront physiquement des ressources humaines n\u00e9cessaires pour organiser une attaque arm\u00e9e syst\u00e9matique contre la future alliance d\u00e9fensive entre l’Ukraine, la Roumanie et la Moldavie, si une telle alliance est cr\u00e9\u00e9e, car il est connu que les forces n\u00e9cessaires pour organiser une d\u00e9fense sont nettement moins importantes que pour attaquer. De plus, le territoire de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie lui-m\u00eame deviendrait expos\u00e9 et pratiquement sans d\u00e9fense. Bien s\u00fbr, dans de telles circonstances, les dirigeants politiques de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie n’auront plus le temps de recourir \u00e0 l’agression ext\u00e9rieure, car la question de la pr\u00e9servation de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie elle-m\u00eame pourrait alors se poser.<\/span><\/p>\n

Et que se passera-t-il si la Russie est \u00e9galement entra\u00een\u00e9e dans un conflit militaire avec l’Azerba\u00efdjan, qu’elle cherche constamment \u00e0 provoquer, pour une raison ou une autre ?<\/span><\/p>\n

Il est absolument certain que la Turquie, forte de ses 90 millions d’habitants et de sa deuxi\u00e8me arm\u00e9e la plus puissante de l’OTAN apr\u00e8s les \u00c9tats-Unis, d\u00e9fendra sans aucun doute l’Azerba\u00efdjan. Et que peut faire la Russie face \u00e0 tout cela, elle qui, malgr\u00e9 sa rh\u00e9torique atroce et son apparence mena\u00e7ante, n’a pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 vaincre l’Ukraine apr\u00e8s de nombreuses ann\u00e9es de guerre ? <\/span><\/p>\n

Les g\u00e9n\u00e9raux russes connaissent parfaitement l’\u00e9quilibre actuel des forces militaires et politiques dans le monde et les probl\u00e8mes de l’arm\u00e9e russe, mais les politiciens et le peuple russes, intoxiqu\u00e9s par la propagande, sont toujours hant\u00e9s par des ambitions imp\u00e9rialistes. Parall\u00e8lement, il devient de plus en plus \u00e9vident que la Russie ne peut plus mener une guerre prolong\u00e9e, car elle est \u00e9galement \u00e0 court de ressources. En fin de compte, l’aventure de Poutine avec l’invasion de l’Ukraine se traduira par une profonde crise politique pour la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie, aux cons\u00e9quences impr\u00e9visibles, comme cela s’est produit \u00e0 plusieurs reprises dans l’histoire russe. Par cons\u00e9quent, la solution la plus acceptable et la plus s\u00fbre pour sortir de la situation actuelle serait de cr\u00e9er une nouvelle union de d\u00e9fense des \u00c9tats au niveau r\u00e9gional qui pourrait garantir la protection contre la politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re agressive de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie et constituer un facteur de stabilisation en cas d’effondrement de son \u00c9tat et de d\u00e9sint\u00e9gration incontr\u00f4l\u00e9e. Le \u00ab Triangle d’Odessa \u00bb compos\u00e9 de l’Ukraine, de la Roumanie et de la Moldavie, pourrait constituer la premi\u00e8re \u00e9tape vers la cr\u00e9ation d’une nouvelle union r\u00e9gionale de d\u00e9fense des \u00c9tats, qui pourrait \u00e0 l’avenir \u00eatre \u00e9largie et d\u00e9velopp\u00e9e afin d’instaurer une paix et une stabilit\u00e9 durables dans toute la r\u00e9gion des Mers Baltique, Noire et Caspienne.<\/span><\/p>\n

Oleg Berezyuk,
\n<\/span><\/strong>Institut de Politique Globale<\/span><\/p>\n

(Image est g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e par un r\u00e9seau neuronal)<\/span><\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oleg Berezyuk<\/p>\n

l’Ukraine, la Roumanie et la Moldavie ont convenu de cr\u00e9er une cyberalliance r\u00e9gionale afin de faire face aux d\u00e9fis et menaces modernes, principalement ceux de la F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":31028,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[263,260],"tags":[273],"class_list":["post-31027","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-podi-faktit-komentari","category-publikacii","tag-berezyuk","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"fr","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\nL'Ukraine commence \u00e0 construire son propre syst\u00e8me de s\u00e9curit\u00e9 r\u00e9gional - 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