{"id":31809,"date":"2025-10-07T12:48:27","date_gmt":"2025-10-07T09:48:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/?p=31809"},"modified":"2025-10-07T21:17:26","modified_gmt":"2025-10-07T18:17:26","slug":"sogodni-yevropa-shhe-do-kincya-ne-usvidomlyuye-usyu-nebezpeku-shho-jde-vid-rossi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/igp.org.ua\/fr\/publikacii\/analitika\/sogodni-yevropa-shhe-do-kincya-ne-usvidomlyuye-usyu-nebezpeku-shho-jde-vid-rossi\/","title":{"rendered":"Aujourd’hui, l’Europe ne mesure toujours pas pleinement le danger que repr\u00e9sente la Russie"},"content":{"rendered":"
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Aujourd’hui, l’Europe ne mesure toujours pas pleinement le danger que repr\u00e9sente la Russie.<\/h1>\n
C’est une grave erreur, car l’incursion d’avions et de drones russes dans l’espace a\u00e9rien de l’UE d\u00e9montre clairement que les Russes n’ont aucune intention de s’arr\u00eater \u00e0 l’Ukraine.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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R\u00e9cemment, le journaliste tch\u00e8que Adam K. Sybera, correspondant du Kyiv Independent, a publi\u00e9 un article sur sa page Facebook dans lequel des politiciens tch\u00e8ques pro-russes affirmaient que la Russie ne repr\u00e9sentait aucune menace pour la R\u00e9publique tch\u00e8que et que son agression se limiterait \u00e0 l’Ukraine. Cependant, il a \u00e9galement partag\u00e9 des interviews de prisonniers de guerre russes qui expriment un point de vue diam\u00e9tralement oppos\u00e9 affirmant que leur objectif ultime est l’Europe tout enti\u00e8re et qu’ils n’ont aucune intention de s’arr\u00eater \u00e0 l’Ukraine.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Compte tenu de la logique du comportement russe, peu d’analystes s\u00e9rieux doutent que la raison principale de l’invasion de l’Ukraine \u00e9tait la volont\u00e9 de Poutine de restaurer l’influence de la Russie sur la sc\u00e8ne internationale par la force. Le plan ult\u00e9rieur \u00e9tait de conqu\u00e9rir l’Europe. Il appara\u00eet d\u00e9sormais clairement que l’Ukraine n’\u00e9tait que la phase initiale de ce plan.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Parall\u00e8lement, l’\u00e9chec sur le front ukrainien a contraint les Russes \u00e0 une plus grande prudence. Ils tentent d\u00e9sormais d’isoler l’Ukraine de l’Occident par des moyens politiques, en \u00e9tendant leur influence aux parlements et aux gouvernements des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Les Russes accordent une attention particuli\u00e8re aux voisins les plus proches de l’Ukraine : la Pologne, la Slovaquie, la R\u00e9publique tch\u00e8que, la Hongrie, la Roumanie et la Moldavie. Les \u00c9tats baltes sont actuellement dans une zone plus s\u00fbre, car entre eux et l’Ukraine se trouve la Bi\u00e9lorussie, annex\u00e9e de fait par Vladimir Poutine et dirig\u00e9e par son marionnette Alexandre Loukachenko.<\/div>\n
On sait qu’il y a quelques mois, les Russes ont tent\u00e9, par diverses mesures actives, d’influencer les r\u00e9sultats des \u00e9lections en Roumanie, mais leurs efforts sont rest\u00e9s vains. Ils ont ensuite envisag\u00e9 de se venger de la Moldavie, mais l\u00e0 encore, ils ont \u00e9chou\u00e9. Maia Sandu a compl\u00e8tement d\u00e9jou\u00e9 les plans de Poutine et a d\u00e9montr\u00e9 \u00e0 tous que la grande majorit\u00e9 des choix politiques des Moldaves se tournent non pas vers la Russie, mais vers l’Europe.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Lors des \u00e9lections en R\u00e9publique tch\u00e8que, les communistes ouvertement prorusses n’ont pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 entrer au parlement, et le parti d’Okamura, qui avait \u00e9galement adopt\u00e9 une position prorusse pendant la campagne \u00e9lectorale, a recueilli exactement la moiti\u00e9 des voix pr\u00e9vues par les sociologues.<\/div>\n
Le parti populiste et isolationniste du milliardaire Andrej Babi\u0161 n’a pas non plus obtenu le nombre de voix requis. D\u00e9sormais, pour former un gouvernement, ils devront former des coalitions, ce qui n’est pas chose ais\u00e9e compte tenu de la composition actuelle des forces politiques au Parlement tch\u00e8que.<\/div>\n
Par cons\u00e9quent, l’\u00e9chec des Russes dans la guerre contre l’Ukraine, ainsi que leurs d\u00e9faites en politique \u00e9trang\u00e8re, sugg\u00e8rent qu’ils ont clairement surestim\u00e9 leur propre capacit\u00e9 \u00e0 r\u00e9aliser leurs ambitions imp\u00e9riales. Il s’av\u00e8re que la majorit\u00e9 des \u00e9lecteurs des pays d’Europe centrale et orientale ne sont pas pr\u00eats \u00e0 sacrifier leur libert\u00e9 et leur ind\u00e9pendance pour du p\u00e9trole et du gaz russes bon march\u00e9.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Au vu des r\u00e9sultats des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives en Roumanie, en Moldavie et en R\u00e9publique Tch\u00e8que, on peut d’ores et d\u00e9j\u00e0 affirmer que les Russes n’ont pas r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 cr\u00e9er une zone tampon autour de l’Ukraine et \u00e0 l’isoler de l’Occident. La Hongrie, en revanche, demeure, o\u00f9 des \u00e9lections l\u00e9gislatives auront \u00e9galement lieu au printemps prochain. Les Russes tenteront probablement de prendre leur revanche et de maintenir au pouvoir l’actuel Premier ministre de ce pays, Viktor Orb\u00e1n. Cependant, cela ne change rien au fond ; cela ne fait que prolonger la crise et retarder temporairement des processus \u00e9volutifs, voire r\u00e9volutionnaires, en Russie m\u00eame.<\/div>\n
Les erreurs de calcul de la Russie dans la guerre avec l’Ukraine sont r\u00e9cemment devenues de plus en plus flagrantes, ce qui a permis \u00e0 l’\u00ab ami \u00bb de Poutine, l’actuel pr\u00e9sident am\u00e9ricain Donald Trump, de qualifier le pr\u00e9sident russe de \u00ab tigre en papier \u00bb. Une d\u00e9faite politique en Europe centrale et orientale aurait \u00e9galement des cons\u00e9quences n\u00e9gatives pour ce \u00ab tigre \u00bb, entra\u00eenant \u00e0 terme la perte de ses march\u00e9s de mati\u00e8res premi\u00e8res, ce qui, dans un proche avenir, d\u00e9clenchera in\u00e9vitablement une crise financi\u00e8re et \u00e9conomique en F\u00e9d\u00e9ration de Russie et une tendance \u00e0 sa d\u00e9sint\u00e9gration et \u00e0 son effondrement politiques. Il est clair que l’effondrement du dernier empire russe et du plus grand \u00c9tat du monde en termes de territoire entra\u00eenera une multitude de nouveaux d\u00e9fis et menaces pour la communaut\u00e9 internationale. Mais c’est bien mieux que la survie d’un tel monstre qui ne reconna\u00eet aucune r\u00e8gle ni norme internationale et dont le seul but est de satisfaire ses propres ambitions imp\u00e9riales et de conqu\u00e9rir des terres et des peuples \u00e9trangers.<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
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Oleg Berezyuk<\/strong>.
\nInstitut de Politique Globale<\/div>\n
(Image g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9e par un r\u00e9seau neuronal)<\/em><\/span><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Oleg Berezyuk<\/p>\n

L’incursion d’avions et de drones russes dans l’espace a\u00e9rien de l’UE d\u00e9montre clairement que les Russes n’ont aucune intention de s’arr\u00eater \u00e0 l’Ukraine<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":8,"featured_media":31810,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_crdt_document":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[261,263],"tags":[273],"class_list":["post-31809","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analitika","category-podi-faktit-komentari","tag-berezyuk","wp-image-borders"],"translation":{"provider":"WPGlobus","version":"3.0.2","language":"fr","enabled_languages":["uk","en","ru","fr","ar"],"languages":{"uk":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"en":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ru":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"fr":{"title":true,"content":true,"excerpt":true},"ar":{"title":false,"content":false,"excerpt":false}}},"gutentor_comment":0,"yoast_head":"\nAujourd'hui, l'Europe ne mesure toujours pas pleinement le danger que repr\u00e9sente la Russie - 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