Controlling the Region Means, First of All, Preserving Its Ecology
Based on the materials of the roundtable “Military-Political Alliance of Türkiye and Ukraine as a Factor of Security and Stability in the Baltic-Black Sea-Caspian Region”
The Baltic-Black Sea-Caspian Region faces a whole range of hypothetical and real threats that affect its stability. Ukraine, as one of the key states in the region, is interested in partnership with Türkiye, taking into account, first of all, the latter’s influence on Black Sea security, role in NATO, economic potential and geopolitical position, and hypothetical and real threats to the reduction of the Baltic-Black Sea-Caspian Region.
Russian Expansion and Militarization of the Region.
Russia is actively militarizing Crimea and the Black Sea, including by deploying missile systems, air defense and naval systems there. Accordingly, it seeks to increase its influence by using the frozen conflicts in Georgia, Transnistria, and the consequences of the Armenian-Azerbaijani war. It is also actively using hybrid aggression, cyberattacks, and disinformation, undermining democratic institutions, and persistently seeking instability in the Caucasus.
Therefore, it is quite possible that the same hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan will resume. Let me point out that in that region, the interests of T Türkiye and Russia are completely opposite, which creates the risk of direct confrontation or war through proxies. As for Ukraine’s interests, Türkiye is not only an important trade and military partner, but also a potential ally in shaping the regional security architecture. In the context of growing turbulence in the region, our close cooperation with Türkiye will allow us to strengthen Ukraine’s security flank in the South, create conditions for a multilateral coalition to deter the Russian Federation, develop military technologies and diversify risks.
What Political Steps by Türkiye Could Be Beneficial for Ukraine?
First – its support for the Crimean Tatar community, cultural and educational initiatives.
Second –Türkiye’s acting as a mediator in negotiations on the de-occupation of Crimea and the future security of the Azov-Black Sea Region and its support for Ukraine on international platforms.
Third – joint lobbying for the implementation of NATO’s Black Sea Security Strategy.
Fourth – Türkiye’s joint military initiatives with Ukraine; expanding intelligence sharing, especially on the Russian Black Sea Fleet’s activities in the Black Sea; and Türkiye’s support in creating a regional air and missile defense system;
intensification of defense-industrial cooperation, joint developments in missile defense, electronic warfare, and satellite systems.
We believe that the key issues in the implementation of the Black Sea Doctrine today are the de-occupation of Crimea and demilitarization of the entire Black Sea basin, where the Russian military presence should be terminated. The Crimean Peninsula should remain Ukrainian, which will prevent further geopolitical tensions in the entire Black Sea region.
Today, the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine is actively taking steps to increase Ukraine’s subjectivity in terms of ensuring security in the region. This includes the demilitarization of the Black Sea and Crimea in general, and before that, the liberation of Zmiinyi Island and the so-called Boyko Towers and neutralization of the cruiser “Moskva”, which turned the Russian fleet in the Black Sea into a flotilla. All of this can be considered phases of a holistic process of implementing the Black Sea Doctrine, which is aimed at protecting the environment of the entire Black Sea region.
At the first stage, one of the main tasks of Ukrainian operations in the Black Sea is to create a safe corridor for the passage of merchant ships. This will help ensure that the grain corridor functions independently of the aggressor. This is a strategic task, as its implementation has made it possible to unlock the markets of Africa and the Middle East for Ukraine.
I would like to point out that the goal of the activities of the combat units of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine and our security and defense forces in the Black Sea has been changing along with the overall strategic picture. Initially, the goal was to prevent the Russian landing on the Ukrainian coast. Later, the goal was to reduce the ability of the Russian occupation forces to control the waters. As I have already mentioned, both the destruction of the cruiser “Moskva”, which served as an air umbrella for Russian forces in the Black Sea region, and the regaining of control over Zmiinyi Island and Boyko Towers, where powerful Russian radars were located, played a role in this.
To this should be added the operations of the Main Intelligence Directorate directly in Crimea, which resulted in the destruction of a number of Russian radar stations and air defense systems and an A-50 radar aircraft.
We believe that the main stages of the battle for the Black Sea today, should be to force the Russian fleet to move a considerable distance from the Ukrainian coast and to make the Russians give up the concept of “Sevastopol – the main base of the Russian Black Sea Fleet”. At this stage, the main danger to Ukrainian and foreign vessels in the Black Sea is not the ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, of which a third have already been destroyed, along with a submarine, but the chaotic mining carried out by Russia.
Today, we also see that as a result of our active defense, the enemy is trying to restore the number of ships of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, but is unable to do so because the Bosphorus is closed to warships under the Montreux Convention.
In turn, Ukraine has moved to a new type of sea operations which effectively counteracts the enemy fleet even if we do not have our own navy. Our unmanned fleet, consisting of unique Ukrainian developments that have no analogues in the world, plays a significant role at this last stage. Creating such an unmanned fleet, Ukraine for the first time used drone swarm technology in practice, i.e., coordinated attacks by a large number of autonomous unmanned vessels working as a single team.
And another consequence is that the Russian Black Sea Fleet ships were forced to move a long distance from the Ukrainian coast, and the capabilities of the enemy air defense and electronic warfare were significantly reduced. This means that the Ukrainian Defense Forces are able to shoot down Russian warplanes in the Black Sea region.
In the context of all the events just mentioned, the role of strategic communications in the security sector has rapidly increased. And the main strategic narrative in the Black Sea can be considered the benefit of all countries in the region. After all, this region is our common space, rich in resources and with a unique ecosystem, of which we, Ukraine and Türkiye, must take care together.
Illia Pavlenko,
Deputy Head of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine,
Major General (reserve)
