Moscow has very big ambitions, but it builds its reasoning on false narratives

Based on the materials of the roundtable “Military-Political Alliance of Türkiye and Ukraine as a Factor of Security and Stability in the Baltic-Black Sea-Caspian Region”

I will touch upon the topic of the current situation in Russia’s war in Ukraine and some predictions about further developments related to the war.

For many reasons and factors, the current Russian-Ukrainian war can be considered one of the most important events of the century, which will certainly lead to the restructuring of Eastern Europe. The question is: what will happen over the next 15 years? Russia is now trying to restore its former imperial position. We can even say that this is a new, most technological and modern phase of the Russian revolution.

At one time, we greeted recognizing the independence of Ukraine and the Caucasian republics, etc. And now it is important for us that they retain their newly acquired independent status when Russia is fighting to recreate the Soviet era. Just look at its military operations in Georgia, Chechnya, and Crimea, during which Putin managed to occupy Georgia in 2008 and Crimea in 2014. Türkiye fwatched those events with great indignation. And so Putin’s appetite grew so that he wanted to get his hands on Ukraine, as he did with Georgia, Chechnya, and Crimea. The United States, along with European countries, reacted without delay to protect Ukraine from Russia’s aggressive plans. Yes, Moscow has very big ambitions, but it is basing its reasoning on false narratives and sticking to its policy, which is doomed.

But we can also see how the United States, especially now, is demonstrating its indifference to the fact of the attack on Ukraine, as it once did to the events in Georgia and Crimea. Nevertheless, Moscow will now feel seriously confronted by countries around the world, including China.

Russia prioritizes the use of military force against NATO. However, Russia has not achieved and will not achieve what it hopes for. Ukrainians are successfully repulsing its aggressive attacks. Just as Finland did successfully in its time, by the way. And this is being mentioned now, as there is a danger of the Baltic countries being captured…

As for Ukraine’s plans, it is now talking about its need to deploy, so to speak, a NATO protective umbrella. Of course, Moscow, if we look at its history, has been characterized by aggressive desires for several centuries. Putin has appeared in geopolitical history, including in the history of Türkiye, as a result of his involvement in armed conflicts that threaten many countries, including the Baltic and Danube basin countries, etc.

This, among other things, affects their ecology, in particular, the river systems connecting Anatolia, the Caucasus, and the Caspian Basin countries. It is impossible not to mention our Türkiye in the context of the overall economic and geographical situation, as it is closely linked to the systems of other countries. This is a geopolitical reality, one of the most important pages of which is the events in Ukraine.

Türkiye’s geopolitical ties with Ukraine, as well as our historical ties, are extremely important. History has provided a unique opportunity for different countries – Türkiye, Georgia, Ukraine and many others – to join forces to take decisive action to protect themselves and the region. I am referring to Romania and Poland, among others. The Baltic countries need to unite with the Caucasus countries, including with Türkiye. All such cooperation concerns different sectors: economic, diplomatic, and military.

It should be noted that thanks to the United States and its allies, Russian expansion could have been prevented. And cooperation between the countries of the region is the only way to stabilize peace.

Thank you very much for the invitation. My sincere wishes for peace in Ukraine.

Yücel Öztürk,
founder of the International Research Platform “Eastern European Studies”,
Doctor of History, Professor, Lecturer at the Faculty of History, Sakarya University, Türkiye