The Crisis in the Middle East. Negative and Positive Consequences for Ukraine
According to most assessments, the military operation by the United States and Israel against Iran has significant negative consequences for Ukraine. This first of all concerns Russia gaining additional opportunities to continue the war. However, it will not result in critically negative consequences for our country. Moreover, the crisis in the Middle East has heightened Ukraine’s importance as a country with the world’s most extensive experience in countering UAVs and a readiness to assist its partners.
Since early March of this year, the USA and Israel’s military operation against Iran has emerged as a new significant factor influencing Ukraine’s interests and the situation around the Russian-Ukrainian war. Currently, it is one of the central events in the world, and its consequences are quite ambiguous, having both negative and positive implications for our country.
This issue is widely covered by the media; however, in many cases, their assessments differ significantly from one another. Moreover, in some cases, they do not correspond to the actual situation or distort it. This has both objective and subjective reasons, which include differences in experts’ views and, in some cases, their fulfillment of certain political agendas.
As a result, Ukrainian society is getting a misleading impression of the situation in the Middle East and its impact on Ukraine’s interests. Especially if we take into consideration that most assessments on this matter are unjustifiably negative toward our country. Therefore, the consequences of the USA and Israel’s military operation against Iran require separate attention, taking into account all the circumstances surrounding it.
First and foremost, this concerns the impact of oil prices on Russia’s ability to continue military operations on the front lines in Ukraine, Tehran’s capacity to supply weapons to Moscow, as well as the significance of our country as a nation with advanced experience in countering UAVs and capable of providing assistance to its partners.
Thus, the main negative consequence of the USA and Israel’s military operation against Iran for Ukraine and most of the world is the rise in global oil prices. The primary reason for this increase is Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20–25% of the world’s oil and petroleum product supplies pass.
This has given Russia the opportunity to increase its oil and gas revenues, which account for the majority of its state budget. According to many estimates, this saved Russia from economic collapse as early as this summer and allows it to continue the war against Ukraine with the same, or even greater, intensity, while a protracted crisis in the Middle East will create even more favorable opportunities for Moscow to achieve its goals regarding Ukraine.
However, such claims do not fully reflect reality. The situation for Russia is not as rosy as it seems at first glance. It remains subject to US and EU sanctions, which significantly limit its access to foreign markets.
As is well known, the USA has lifted the ban on Russian oil imports only for India for a period of one month. And even then, India can purchase only oil that is “stuck” in tankers at sea with no buyers. However, there are problems with India’s purchase of that oil. India’s largest bank, the Bank of India, is wary of extending loans to the country’s oil companies due to the temporary nature of the suspension of US sanctions.
The European Union categorically refuses to lift sanctions against Russia, even temporarily. The price cap on Russian oil for European countries remains unchanged at $44 per barrel. Russia cannot sell its oil to them at a higher price, no matter how much global prices rise.
Russia faces a rather complicated situation regarding its oil trade with China. It sells oil at a discount of $30 per barrel – a practice that also applies to India. However, unlike Russia, Beijing is in a position to dictate its terms to Moscow. Therefore, according to some estimates, China buys oil from Russia at a price it sets, which is independent of global prices.
Besides, leading world powers keep taking urgent measures to stabilize the oil market. In particular, G7 member countries have decided to release their strategic oil reserves. According to a report by the International Energy Agency, 182 million barrels of oil will be released to the market, exceeding the volumes that were released in 2022 after Russia launched its war against Ukraine.
The issue of Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually being resolved. Saudi Arabia has already rerouted about 70% of its oil around the Strait to the port of Yanbu on the western coast of the Red Sea via the East-West Pipeline. In turn, the United Arab Emirates is rerouting its oil to the Gulf of Oman via the Habshan–Fujairah oil pipeline. While these pipelines are not sufficiently large, they allow for an increase in oil supplies to the global market.
Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is gradually resuming. Iran has begun allowing Indian tankers to pass through. Following this, the strait may also be opened to Chinese vessels. Currently, China is actively engaged in diplomatic efforts with Iran on this issue. Most likely, the matter will be successfully resolved, as China remains Iran’s main partner and wields significant influence over it.
The US Navy is escorting some tankers. Washington has appealed to its NATO allies for assistance in this regard. So far, they have refused to do so. However, the White House has announced the possibility of forming an international coalition to ensure the safety of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz in the near future. In addition to or instead of NATO members, countries from the Middle East and the Persian Gulf may join it. Saudi Arabia has already agreed to this.
Therefore, the rise in global oil prices is temporary, which will not allow Russia to generate additional oil and gas revenues for a long time. Based on the expected duration of the USA and Israel’s military operation against Iran, Moscow will retain this opportunity for two to six months. However, as mentioned above, they will be constrained by Western sanctions.
These additional funds will, to some extent, cover Russia’s monthly budget deficits, which will indeed help improve the state of the Russian economy and provide the resources needed to continue military operations. But only in the short term. Moreover, they will not be enough for Moscow to turn the tide of the war in its favor. And once the USA establishes control over Iranian oil, it will inevitably cause global oil prices to plummet, which will be a disaster for Russia.
The second most significant negative consequence of the crisis in the Middle East for Ukraine is considered to be the diversion of the international community’s attention away from our country and the Russian-Ukrainian war. Such assertions are entirely justified. The USA and Israel’s military operation against Iran has indeed taken center stage in the global media landscape.
This applies even more so to the United States. Objectively, it is forced to focus its attention primarily on Iran, so other issues, including Ukraine, have taken a back seat for it. As a result, the negotiation process for restoring peace in Ukraine has effectively stalled. The next rounds of negotiations have been postponed indefinitely.
This situation plays into Moscow’s hands, as it is deliberately dragging out the negotiations in order to seize as much of Ukraine’s territory as possible. At this, Russia hopes to achieve decisive victories on the front lines and force Ukraine to surrender. As is well known, its main efforts are currently focused on establishing control over the entire Donbas region and advancing to the outskirts of Zaporizhzhia.
However, in general, the world remains focused on Ukraine, including the USA and Europe. Since the start of the crisis in the Middle East, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly returned to the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war, albeit not in a particularly positive light for Ukraine. Indeed, he has intensified pressure on Ukraine to compel it to cede the entire Donbas region to Russia.
In Trump’s view, Ukraine’s agreement to comply with Russia’s demands on this issue would allow the war to be “frozen,” at least temporarily. This would enable him to declare his mediation mission a success, which is of particular importance to him given the approaching midterm elections to the US Congress in November of this year.
Europe has not forgotten about Ukraine and continues to implement all programs designed to support the country. Moreover, discussions are underway in Europe regarding the possibility of agreeing to assist the USA’s actions in the Middle East, specifically regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, in exchange for increased American aid to Ukraine.
Among the negative factors for Ukraine is also the possibility that the USA may reduce the volume of NATO weapons supplies to Ukraine under the PURL program due to a shortage of such supplies for the military operation against Iran. This primarily concerns air defense systems. According to reports in the American media, during the first two weeks of the war, more missiles for the Patriot air defense system were used to repel Iranian attacks than are produced in the USA in a year.
This is plausible. However, the USA has been manufacturing these missiles for more than just one year. Therefore, there are certainly sufficient stockpiles in storage. And the US defense industry is certainly not standing still; it is increasing production of missiles for all types of air defense systems. Unlike Russia, the USA is capable of rapidly ramping up new production capacity. And so is Japan, which manufactures missiles for the Patriot system under license.
European NATO countries also possess a significant number of anti-aircraft missiles, although they obviously need them for their own use. Nevertheless, in March of this year, Germany purchased 30 such missiles from its allies for Ukraine. Of course, this is not enough, but it has replenished our arsenals.
In the near future, the problem of ammunition shortages for the Patriot air defense system will disappear entirely. The USA and Israel have destroyed most of the launchers for Iranian missile systems, which explains the sharp decline in their use. Therefore, the consumption of anti-aircraft missiles of this type will decrease. Meanwhile, other, less powerful missiles, aircraft, and interceptor drones are used against UAVs. Given this, the USA will be able to continue supplying missiles for the Patriot air defense system to Ukraine.
According to Ukraine’s Ambassador to NATO A. Hetmanchuk, there is currently no negative impact from events in the Middle East on the PURL program. There are no changes or delays in deliveries. The program’s participating countries are allocating funds for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine in a timely manner and are even increasing them.
At the same time, there may, of course, be disruptions in the supply of American weapons for Ukraine’s needs, including anti-aircraft missiles. This was acknowledged by President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy during his visit to London on March 17 of this year. He discussed this issue with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. Ukraine’s partners expressed their readiness to do their to assist the country in strengthening its air defense system.
Another potential problem for Ukraine could be the deterioration of relations within NATO due to European countries’ refusal to assist the USA in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. This provoked an extremely sharp reaction from US President Donald Trump, who accused them of failing to fulfill their alliance obligations.
In fact, this stance by European countries was entirely justified. Donald Trump did not consult with them regarding his decision to launch a military operation against Iran, even though it directly affected their interests and security. Therefore, he got exactly what he deserved. All the more so after he set a course to reduce the USA’s responsibility for Europe’s security.
But then, in any case, the intensification of contradictions within NATO weakens the alliance and reduces its ability to deter Moscow’s aggression against Europe. And should such aggression actually begin, D. Trump may refuse to provide assistance to Europe. His personal qualities and mindset make this entirely possible.
As a result, Ukraine’s ability to stand up to Russia would also be undermined, since it relies on the North Atlantic Alliance. Therefore, let us hope that such prospects are unlikely.
Against this background, a positive development for Ukraine is Iran’s cessation of arms and ammunition supplies to the Russian armed forces. Previously, such supplies included components for Shahed-type UAVs, short-range ballistic missiles, and shells of various calibers. Now, it is evident that Iran is no longer doing so. Moreover, Russia itself supplies Iran with UAVs and, likely, other types of weapons. All of this, to some extent, limits Russia’s ability to wage war against Ukraine.
However, at this point, Iranian arms supplies are no longer of fundamental importance to Russia. It has already established its own production of UAVs similar to the Iranian “Shahed” and has even modernized them. China supplies the components for these UAVs, including jet engines. As we can see, in March of this year, the number of UAVs used by Russia to strike Ukraine has not decreased.
Most likely, Russia will manage without Iranian shells as well. This is especially true given that the importance of artillery on the battlefield is declining due to the widespread use of unmanned aerial vehicles.
Besides, Ukraine’s role and significance have grown as a country with the world’s most extensive experience in countering UAVs and one that is ready to share this expertise with its partners. This is relevant for both NATO members and countries in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf.
The importance of this issue was first demonstrated by the mass incursion of Russian UAVs into Polish airspace on the night of September 10, 2025.And then they began systematically entering the airspace of the Baltic states and Northern Europe. At that time, Poland’s and NATO’s air defense systems proved incapable of effectively countering such attacks. European NATO countries took this fact into account and began measures to modernize their air defense systems with Ukraine’s involvement.
Despite the obvious need for such actions, the USA and Israel launched a military operation against Iran without adequate preparation to defend against Iranian UAVs. The same applies to countries in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf, which also proved unprepared to repel massive missile strikes from Iran.
As in the case of Russia’s provocations against NATO and EU members, Ukraine offered assistance to the aforementioned countries. All of them, except the United States, accepted it. As of mid-March of this year, Ukraine had sent over 200 of its specialists to countries in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf. This laid the groundwork for taking Ukraine’s relations with them to a qualitatively new level, including in the energy sector.
Trump has so far refused Ukraine’s offer of assistance, a decision driven by his personal ambitions, which do not tolerate even the slightest perception of humiliation for the United States. He evidently views Ukraine’s aforementioned proposal as precisely such a humiliation. This is all the more so given that he cut off financial support for our country last year.
At the same time, in the broader picture, D. Trump and the USA have an objective interest in Ukraine. Ukraine’s participation in strengthening the air defense of the USA and its partners in the Middle East and the Persian Gulf region is fully in line with their interests. At this, the refusal of US NATO allies to assist in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz could prompt D. Trump to approve aid to Ukraine in countering UAVs. Currently, Iranian UAVs pose the main threat to tanker traffic through the strait.
Although, even without this, the conflict in the Middle East has shown that Ukraine and the USA are on the same side in countering the “axis of evil.”
Thus, a military operation by the USA and Israel against Iran has mixed consequences for Ukraine, both negative and positive. On the one hand, they threaten our country’s interests, while on the other, they allow us to use them to our advantage.
The most significant negative consequence is the rise in global oil prices, which is saving Russia from economic collapse in the immediate future and allowing it to continue the war. Furthermore, the crisis in the Middle East is diverting the world’s attention away from Ukraine and the Russian-Ukrainian war. It is also limiting the United States’ ability to supply weapons to Ukraine.
However, these issues are not critical for Ukraine. Especially since certain positive prospects are opening up for Ukraine. First and foremost, these include Ukraine’s growing importance to its Western partners and the countries of the Middle East and the Persian Gulf as a state with the world’s most extensive experience in countering UAVs and a willingness to share that experience.
Besides, the war in the Middle East has clearly demonstrated that Ukraine and the USA are on the same side in the fight against the “axis of evil,” no matter how much Donald Trump has tried to downplay our country’s role and pressure it into making concessions to Russia.
Yurii Mykhailenko,
Institute for Global Politics
