Russia in the ring of fronts.
How will the “besieged fortress” end?
In the course of the Putin regime’s war against Ukraine, new fronts are emerging for Russia, which is a consequence of its aggressive policy toward most of its neighboring countries. Currently, the front in Ukraine is being supplemented by a southern front with the Caucasus countries and a northern front with the countries of Northern Europe. And if this trend continues, an eastern front with Central Asian countries may also open up. This not only diverts Russia’s attention and resources from Ukraine, but also depletes its economic potential. Therefore, in the near future, Russia will face critical economic problems and will hardly be able to continue the war against our country.
According to most estimates, even if Russia ends its war against Ukraine under any circumstances, it will not abandon its aggressive foreign policy and confrontation with most of its neighbors and the Western world. And it is true. After all, Russia was and remains an empire, and it cannot exist without external expansion. This has been mentioned more than once, so there is no need to revisit the known truths. Moreover, we can see what Moscow is doing and what the consequences are. It has the same problems as other imperial countries that once existed. First of all, I mean wars and conflicts with all the countries they could reach, which resulted in the decline of their economies, and then they, as integral states, disintegrated.
As for the importance of the southern front for Russia in the Caucasus. For Russia, the situation there has not only not improved, but has deteriorated and threatens to move from a cold war to a hot war. It is worth focusing on this aspect, which clearly shows what is happening around the Russian Federation.
Thus, on August 8, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a peace agreement and thus ended the war between the two countries, which was provoked by Moscow and lasted almost forty years. The signing of the agreement took place in Washington, D.C., and was mediated by US President D. Trump. An important element of the agreement is the creation of a transit route through the so-called Zangezur corridor. It connects the main territory of Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan province through Armenia.
The United States received exclusive rights to the economic development of the corridor for a period of 99 years. It is planned to build a railroad, an oil and gas pipeline, as well as a power line and a fiber optic line. To implement these plans, a joint consortium involving American, Azerbaijani, and Armenian companies has been created.
Against this backdrop, on August 12, 2016, joint military exercises Eagle Partner 2025 began in Armenia with the United States. According to official reports from the parties, the exercises are peacekeeping. Units of the Armenian Armed Forces Peacekeeping Brigade, the U.S. Army Command in Europe and Africa, and the Kansas National Guard are taking part in the exercise. The topic of peacekeeping operations is being practiced. At the same time, according to some hypotheses, tasks were performed to protect the Zangezur corridor. However, in any case, they demonstrate the US military presence in the Caucasus.
Reports about the possible deployment of a Turkish military base in Azerbaijan have been appearing more and more frequently. The implication is that in this way NATO would directly enter the Caucasus, and the Turkish base would also serve as a counterweight to the 102nd base of the Russian Armed Forces in Armenia.
Moscow took all this extremely negatively. It believes that such actions by the United States, Azerbaijan, and Armenia undermine its position in the Caucasus and threaten its security. And for this purpose, it even carried out a demonstrative military action in response.
On the night of August 6, Russians attacked a compressor station on the border of Ukraine and Romania, which ensures the transportation of American and Azerbaijani gas from Greek LNG terminals to Ukrainian gas storage facilities. And on August 8, an oil depot of the Azerbaijani company SOCAR was attacked. At the same time, Russian propagandists called on Putin to “launch a special military operation in Azerbaijan.” Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s response was also demonstrative in nature with elements of a military context. He called on Ukraine not to surrender its territories to Russia and did not rule out the possibility of lifting the moratorium on military and technical assistance to Ukraine. In practical terms, I. Aliyev allocated $2 million in aid to Ukraine to restore its energy sector. In other words, the disagreements between Moscow and the United States, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and the Turkey behind them are really moving into a military phase, which opens up a real prospect of an outbreak of military confrontation in the Caucasus.
And that’s not all. Russia’s policy of quarrels and wars with all its neighbors has led to the emergence of real prospects for the emergence of another front, this time to the north for Russia. The reason for this was Moscow’s military blackmail of Europe and NATO to force them to withdraw their support for Ukraine. In addition, Russia openly calls Finland, along with the Baltic states and Poland, its “lost territories.” And Russian politicians are calling for the regaining of control over them by force. The NATO leadership, the above-mentioned countries and other countries close to Russia are concerned about such statements by the Russians. According to NATO experts, within five to seven years, Moscow could accumulate sufficient military capabilities to attack the Alliance. And the most likely areas of its attacks are the Baltic and Arctic regions, that is, the eastern part of Northern Europe.
Western experts attribute Moscow’s threats and claims against countries from these regions to a number of other factors related to the general increase in disagreements between Russia and the Baltic and Arctic countries. As a result, these countries are building up their military capabilities and demonstrating their power.
All such problems are well known and do not require any detail. Recently, they have become more complicated, in some cases to a critical level, due to Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, the Baltic states’ opposition to Russia’s “shadow fleet,” and Russia’s intensification of “hybrid wars” against its adversaries.
Therefore, NATO considers it necessary to pay more attention to strengthening the defense of the Alliance’s northern flank, which includes the Baltic and the Arctic. Currently, it is no less important in the European security system than the southern flank, where the Russian-Ukrainian war, which Russia considers a war with NATO, is ongoing.
The principles of strengthening the Alliance’s security on the northern direction are determined based on its position within the European theater of operations, the nature of threats from Russia, and physical and geographical conditions. The main ones are revealed in a number of expert studies and are already being implemented.
For example, the Baltic and Arctic regions are viewed as a single strategic entity – Northern Europe. Despite their respective differences, they are united because of the common threat of attack from Russia. Therefore, they are considered one in NATO’s confrontation with Russia. In addition, Finland simultaneously belongs to the Arctic and Baltic regions and is closely connected to the countries there, which makes it a link between them.
At the same time, it is envisaged to divide functions between the countries of Northern Europe in ensuring its security depending on their geographical location and military capabilities. Thus, they are divided into three categories, namely: “frontline” countries – Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Finland, Sweden and Norway; centers or security providers – Germany, the United Kingdom, Poland, Norway and Denmark; the supreme guarantor of security – the United States.
At the same time, Finland and Sweden are covered by a new NATO strategy that provides for repelling a possible attack from Russia on the Alliance’s borders and prevents Russia from temporarily seizing the territories of the member states. Previous NATO plans were based on the principle of covering the borders with relatively small forces, followed by the involvement of the bulk of the Alliance’s Armed Forces in a defensive operation. A temporary withdrawal from the front lines was allowed in order to preserve their troops. After the defeat of the enemy, it was planned to launch a counteroffensive and regain control of the lost territories.
At the same time, the experience of Russia’s war against Ukraine, namely the massive crimes committed by Russian troops in the occupied territories, showed that such an approach was unacceptable. Therefore, a decision was made to strictly protect the Alliance’s borders. Accordingly, the forward presence of NATO Allied Forces in the countries bordering Russia is being strengthened.
In accordance with these approaches, since the end of last year, a new NATO Land Component Command in Northern Europe (Multi-Corps Land Component Command – MCLCC) has been deployed.
MCLCC is subordinated to NATO’s Joint Forces Command (JFC, Norfolk, USA), and after the formation is completed, it will become its new structure. Given the logic of building the JFC, the new command may receive a status similar to that of its other structures, namely, the Joint Commands (JC) of the Alliance’s Allied Forces Brunskoye (Netherlands), Naples (Italy) and Lisbon (Portugal). In the future, a new Joint Command of NATO’s Allied Forces may be created on its basis with the inclusion of the respective Air Force and Navy Commands.
The Joint Commands of the NATO Allied Forces can be compared to the military districts of the Russian Armed Forces, which in wartime become fronts, or in the case of its war against Ukraine, joint force groups. In this regard, the creation of NATO’s Northern European Command is, in fact, a response to the restoration of the Leningrad Military District of the Russian Armed Forces. And during a possible war, it will become NATO’s Northeastern “front” that will oppose Russia’s Northwestern or Leningrad Front.
Within this structure, NATO’s Eastern “front” will be the Allied Command “Brunskoye” (Netherlands), which will act against the Western Front of the Russian Federation on the basis of its Moscow Military District. And the Southeastern “front” will be the “Naples” Joint Task Force, which will be deployed against Russia’s Southwestern Front on the basis of its Southern Military District. The “Lisbon” SC will perform the functions of training reserves like the Central Military District of the Russian Armed Forces.
By the way, the Brunskoye Command is currently responsible for helping Ukraine, while the Naples Command supports Turkey, and in fact Azerbaijan and Armenia in their confrontation with Russia in the Caucasus. The above comparisons are not entirely correct, but they reflect the essence of the division of the European theater of operations.
The Finnish city of Mikkeli was chosen to host the headquarters of the new command. This is due to the geographical location of Finland, which is actually the center of NATO’s Northern Flank. Therefore, it is most appropriate to control the forces of the new command from there. The headquarters of the Finnish Armed Forces is also located there, which will facilitate interaction between them and the MCLCC.
At the same time, Finland and Sweden, as new members of NATO on its front line, are included in the Alliance’s and the United States’ forward presence system.
Thus, it is planned to deploy a brigade-level NATO multinational battlegroup (MBG) in Finland. At present, Finland and a number of NATO countries are negotiating the deployment of NATO troops to the group. To manage the deployment of the group, the NATO Forward Land Forces (FLF) headquarters was established, headed by Sweden.
It should be recalled that in 2024, the United States and Finland and Sweden signed Defense Cooperation Agreements (DCA). According to them, it is possible to deploy US troops in these countries. In particular, 15 garrisons and training grounds have been designated for this purpose in Finland. In addition, Finland proposes to deploy a base of NATO strategic reconnaissance UAVs such as the RQ-4 Global Hawk on its territory to fly along the border with Russia. Similar plans were implemented in relation to Poland and the Baltic states after Russia’s first attack on Ukraine in 2014.
The actions of NATO’s Allied Command North Europe and other components of the Alliance’s Armed Forces are being practiced during military exercises in the region. All of them have to perform tasks to protect the Scandinavian Peninsula during a possible war with Russia. As a rule, they involve Norway, Finland, Sweden, the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, and some other NATO member states. Most of these exercises are part of the NATO-U.S. SCPE, such as Defender, or are conducted against a common operational background.
This situation makes Moscow respond accordingly by strengthening the troops of the Leningrad Military District. This topic will be discussed in more detail in our future publications. At the moment, the point is that Russia is also in conflict with the countries of Central Asia, which may lead to another front – the eastern one. In particular, this refers to Moscow’s claims to the eastern part of Kazakhstan, which it also considers its “lost territory.”
However, for Ukraine, these circumstances are entirely positive in nature, as they divert Moscow’s attention and resources from it, and exacerbate Russia’s economic problems. Since the beginning of August this year, they have been in a state of deep crisis, which is already directly worrying the Russians. A manifestation of this is the massive shutdown of industrial and other enterprises, which leaves people without sufficient means of subsistence. These problems are also known and widely discussed in the media.
All this allows us to draw several conclusions that also apply to Ukraine. For example, Putin’s aggressive policy may lead to the opening of new fronts for Russia. Along with the front in Ukraine, it already has a southern front in the Caucasus and a northern front with the countries of Northern Europe. In the future, an eastern front with Central Asian countries may also appear.
So far, the situation on the southern and northern fronts for Russia is reminiscent of the Cold War. However, with a tendency to move into a hot phase. This forces Moscow to respond accordingly, i.e., to strengthen its troop groupings in these areas. In turn, this need for action diverts its attention and resources from Ukraine.
In addition, Ukraine has additional opportunities to develop relations with the countries of the Caucasus and Northern Europe on the basis of joint counteraction to Russia. And our country’s cooperation with them can be based on the principle of cooperation between allies who, although on different fronts, have a common enemy.
Yuriy Mykhaylenko,
Institute of Global Policy
(Image generated by neural network)
