The Threat of the RF’s Armed Invasion of Poland
Recently, the British newspaper “The Telegraph” has reported that the United States had warned Warsaw of Russia’s intentions to carry out an armed invasion of Poland. Today, few people believe this, since Poland is a NATO member, although it appears that US intelligence sent a similar warning to Ukraine at one time, and few people believed that either. As for the threat of Russia’s armed invasion of Poland, it is quite real today.
It is worth noting that as far back as June 2023, chairman of the Russian State Duma’s Defense Committee Andrei Kartapolov stated that the Wagner Group was in Belarus not only to train its armed forces. He said bluntly at the time: “There is this Suwałki Corridor… And we really need this Suwałki Corridor if it comes to it… The point is that a ready-to-strike force could take this wretched corridor in a matter of hours”.
The Russians really do need this “wretched corridor” very much, since it is intended to connect Russia with Kaliningrad – which is currently Russia’s main naval base in the Baltic Sea – via Belarus. A similar situation occurred in Ukraine when the Russians seized Crimea and then fought their way there overland.
Another reason for the Russian armed forces’ invasion of Poland and the seizure of the Suwałki Corridor is the approaching date of the Russian State Duma elections, scheduled to take place this autumn.
Against the background of a series of Russian defeats in the war with Ukraine, Putin has begun to rapidly lose public support, which has also negatively affected his political power. He can only save the situation by launching a small, victorious war against a NATO member country. This would give him the opportunity to boost his political standing, regain lost ground, and win the parliamentary elections.
Could such a Putin-led adventure have a successful outcome?
Given that the current Donald Trump has a personal interest in keeping Putin in office as Russia’s President, it cannot be ruled out that the United States might play along with him in this situation. Even a passive reaction from the USA to Russian aggression against Poland – as was the case with Ukraine in February–March 2022 – would be beneficial to Putin, since Poland is unlikely to be able to defend itself on its own against an armed invasion by the Russian Federation’s army. But the Russians face one problem in successfully carrying out this plan. Russia does not share a land border with Poland, so it needs to draw Belarus into this war.
It was precisely for this purpose that Vladimir Putin recently invited Aleksandr Lukashenko to the Valdai Forum. Most likely, they were unable to reach an agreement there, since immediately after the meeting with the current Kremlin leader, Lukashenko flew to Xi Jinping and apparently did secure his support.
At the same time, having learned from his bitter experience in Ukraine, Putin began to prepare more thoroughly for an invasion of Poland. Through their Polish agents, Russian intelligence services have already begun carrying out active measures, including special information and psychological operations aimed at severing Poland’s relations with Ukraine, Lithuania, and Germany – the countries that would be the first to come to the Poles’ aid in the event of an invasion of Poland by Russian troops. And we must give the Russians credit, as things are going more or less smoothly for them so far.
Putin’s problems have arisen from another direction. It turns out that the Belarusians do not want to participate in a war against the Poles. Aleksandr Lukashenko also reacted extremely negatively to Putin’s idea, since, as an experienced politician, he understands very well what the consequences would be for Belarus – and for him personally – if he were to participate in this adventure on Russia’s side.
Now, in order to use Belarusian territory and its armed forces to attack Poland, Putin needs to remove Lukashenko from office, but he cannot do so at the moment, since Lukashenko has already hedged his bets and secured the support of Xi Jinping.
It is clear that China played an important role in this situation and served as a stabilizing factor, which saved Poland from a direct armed invasion by Russia.
At the same time, Russia’s direct interest in seizing the Suwałki Corridor remains, and Poland must therefore be prepared for such a turn of events.
Under these circumstances, it is extremely important for Poles to maintain good-neighborly relations with their closest neighbors – in particular, Ukraine, Germany, and Lithuania – who, in case of Russia’s armed aggression, must help Poland stop the aggressor and preserve its territorial integrity, freedom, and state sovereignty.
Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute for Global Politics
