It is already becoming clear that the Russian-Ukrainian war of attrition offers Russia no advantages

“Madyar”’s drones have begun flying deep into Russia and methodically destroying its critical infrastructure and energy facilities. It is clear that continuing this war will only exacerbate the socio-political and economic situation in Russia and spark widespread public discontent.

The lack of clear successes on the front lines does not help Putin’s popularity ether. This, in turn,  could result in his defeat in the Russian State Duma elections scheduled for this autumn. Realizing the consequences of such a policy, Putin is trying to find a way out of this difficult situation, but so far to no result.

It appears that Putin’s plan to drag Belarus into a war with the West has ultimately failed. Lukashenko refused to support it, depriving the Russians of additional human and logistical resources. It is now also evident that the Russian security services’ attempt to provoke a conflict between Poland and Ukraine has ended in failure.

As a result, Moscow is rapidly losing control of the situation. If events continue to unfold in this direction, we can expect the socio-political situation in Russia itself to become destabilized in the near future, along with a rise in protest moods, especially in the regions. All of this will lead to a weakening of the central government’s total control, which will encourage expressions of national consciousness among Russia’s smaller ethnic groups and fuel their nationalist and separatist sentiments.

If events continue to unfold in this direction, the implementation of all of Putin’s ambitious plans will ultimately result in Russia’s complete defeat in the war with Ukraine and in its global confrontation with the West.

This will be followed by the collapse of the Russian Federation and the emergence of new state entities from its ruins. It is already clear that the oppressed peoples of Russia – including the Tatars, Bashkirs, Yakuts, Buryats, Chechens, and Ingush – are biding their time and, according to the information we have, are actively preparing for a national revival, secession from the Russian Federation, and creation of their own independent states.

Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute for  Global Politics

Photo https://militarnyi.com/