A few days ago, we warned that the Russians were preparing another provocation with the aim of causing discord between Türkiye and Ukraine

There was  information that Russian special services were planning to carry out sabotage on the bottom of the Black Sea on the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines, and then blame Ukraine for it.

After the information became public, Russians adjusted their plans. Now they no longer mention the Black Sea, but claim that Ukraine launched missile strikes on infrastructure located on Russian territory that supplies the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines.

They failed to accuse Ukrainians of blowing up these gas pipelines at the bottom of the Black Sea, so now they have decided to link Ukraine to these gas pipelines in another way and still accuse Ukraine of malicious intentions towards Türkiye. It is clear that the main aim of this information and provocation campaign was to damage Ukrainian-Turkish relations.

Here it is worth noting one characteristic feature of russians. Even when their intentions are exposed, they stubbornly continue to stand their ground and keep playing the same old tune. It seems that Russian propagandists have predetermined tasks and limits which they are not allowed to exceed, which prevents them from responding to changes in the situation in a timely manner and achieving the desired result. The same is true about society and the entire Russian state apparatus, where the will of the tsar and the boss is law, while the scope for creativity and personal freedom is extremely limited. In a country ruled by a totalitarian regime, the price of a mistake in strategic decision-making is very high, and sometimes fatal. At the time, no one was able to stop Putin when he made the decision to invade Ukraine. And now, 12 years into the Russian-Ukrainian war, it has become clear to everyone that Putin’s plans have not gone according to plan, and neither provocations, black propaganda, nor outright lies can save him now. The war with Ukraine has been lost, although Putin stubbornly refuses to admit it, but the time is not far off when all of Russia will pay dearly for its invasion of Ukraine, for all the crimes it has committed, and for the sick fantasies and unhealthy ambitions of its tsar.

Oleh Bereziuk
Institute for Global Politics.