Four Years of Russian-Ukrainian War. Consequences for Russia, Ukraine, and the World
The fourth anniversary of Russia’s war against Ukraine is a good opportunity to analyze its consequences. First and foremost, this concerns Russia, Ukraine, and, ultimately, the whole world. The consequences are negative for all. But while Russia is moving towards disaster, Ukraine is managing to strengthen its power and position. This is important for Ukraine today, when the world is becoming increasingly complex and dangerous. The war has also demonstrated a complete change in the strategy and tactics of modern warfare. This issue is also relevant, but we will consider it later.
It has been four years since Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine on February 24, 2026. This event marked the beginning of the most powerful armed conflict in Europe since the end of World War II. It completely changed not only Russia and Ukraine, but the whole world. Such an anniversary may be a good occasion to sum up its interim results.
However, in order to properly understand today’s events, it is necessary to refer to the history of Ukrainian-Russian relations. This is especially true given that Moscow constantly refers to it in an attempt to justify its claims against Ukraine. Russian propagandists seek to convince people that Russians and Ukrainians are of the same origin and therefore one people. Although in reality they are completely different, and the history of their relations is precisely the history of wars between them.
Incidentally, this is acknowledged by the Russians themselves when they talk about the internecine wars in medieval Rus, emphasizing how the northeastern principalities conquered Kyiv “in three days”. Their conflicts continued from the 15th to the 16th centuries as a continuation of the Russian-Lithuanian and Russian-Polish wars, as well as Moscow’s invasions under the guise of “gathering Russian lands”. During those wars, Russia captured Ukraine but was unable to prevent the Ukrainians’ desire to have their own independent state.
After the collapse of the Russian Empire in 1917, Ukraine was reborn as the Ukrainian People’s Republic. But in 1918, Russia started a war against it and eventually eliminated this independent state. However, Ukraine retained some statehood in the form of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic (Ukrainian SSR) as part of the USSR.
During the war between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union in 1941-1945, another attempt was made to restore an independent Ukraine, but it was again suppressed by Russia by military means. However, fighting between the Ukrainian Insurgent Army and Soviet, but in fact, Russian troops in the West of Ukraine continued until the mid-1950s.
As a result of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Ukrainian SSR managed to become a new independent Ukraine. But Russia did not like this again. Already in the early 1990s, it tried to provoke an armed conflict in Crimea. Fortunately, Ukraine managed to prevent this. But this did not stop Russia.
At first, Moscow tried to bring pro-Russian forces to power in Ukraine. And after the Orange Revolution in Ukraine in the winter of 2004-2005 thwarted those plans, Russia set out to divide Ukrainian society, trying to turn the internal confrontation in the country into a civil war. In this way, Russia attempted to eliminate Ukrainian statehood immediately after the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine at the turn of 2013-2014 as part of Operation “Russian Spring”. During this time, Russia occupied Crimea and attempted to seize power in the eastern and southern regions of Ukraine. However, it only managed to organize an armed conflict in the Donbas and take control of part of the Donbas territory with the covert and then overt use of Russian troops.
However, Moscow failed to achieve its main goal of eliminating Ukraine as an independent state. Moreover, since 2014, Ukraine has emerged from the “gray zone” between Russia and the West and has chosen a firm course of European and Euro-Atlantic integration. At that point, Russia realized that it was losing Ukraine for good and decided to launch a full-scale attack on it in February 2022. Besides, the war was supposed to create conditions for Putin to remain in power indefinitely by consolidating Russian society around him on the basis of the ideas of “protecting Russia’s interests” and “liberating Ukraine from the Nazis” who had allegedly seized it through a military coup.
In other words, Russia’s launch of a full-scale war against Ukraine was not a spontaneous act, but the result of its long-standing policy of destroying Ukrainian statehood, which began back in the 16th century.
At the same time, Russia’s attack on Ukraine under the guise of a so-called “special military operation” was only a tool for achieving broader geopolitical goals. The main one is that the West must recognize Russia as a great world power, like the United States, and secure for it the spheres of influence of the former USSR.
This was precisely what Moscow demanded in its ultimatum in December 2021. In particular, it demanded that NATO refrain from further enlargement, primarily due to Ukraine, and that the countries of Central and Eastern Europe and the Baltic states withdraw from it. Russia’s aggression was intended to demonstrate both the determination of its position and its military capabilities. At this, the goals of the so-called “special military operation”, which were declared by the Russian leadership as the “denazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine, essentially meant the deprivation of its national foundations and disarmament, as well as violent Russification, which was tantamount to the loss of statehood.
As part of those plans, Russia hoped to leverage its powerful advantage over Ukraine in all spheres, as well as the weakening of the Ukrainian state and pro-Russian sentiments of the majority of Ukrainians. In the view of the Russian leadership, these circumstances would allow for a quick victory over Ukraine, which would force the West to agree to all Russian demands.
However, these hopes did not materialize. Russia could not achieve victory over Ukraine, deprive it of its independence, prevent its European and Euro-Atlantic integration, or eliminate its military potential. It also failed to break the Ukrainians’ will to resist and force them to renounce their national idea.
Despite some advances by Russian troops, the war has effectively become a war of attrition, turning into a war of resources. Russia is unable to win it, as the combined resources of Ukraine and its Western partners far exceed those of Russia. Ukraine, meanwhile, lacks the strength to achieve victory. As a result, the sides have reached a dynamic equilibrium.
Given these circumstances, we can determine what Russia and Ukraine have achieved and lost, as well as how the war has affected the world.
Let’s start with Russia, as the aggressor and initiator of the war. Since 2014, i.e., the actual beginning of the hot phase of the war in modern history, Russia’s main achievement has been the occupation of 20% of Ukrainian territory. The most important thing for Russia was the seizure of Crimea and the Azov part of Ukraine as a land corridor to it, which created the conditions for Russia’s domination in the Black Sea region.
Another achievement for Russia was Ukraine’s temporary giving up its joining NATO. This is currently one of the provisions of the peace plan being considered during negotiations to end the war.
However, this does not compensate for Russia’s political, military, and economic losses, which are incomparably greater. Not only did it fail to achieve the above-mentioned goals, but it also found itself in a rather difficult political situation and suffered unacceptable losses in the war, while Western sanctions and US actions to lower global oil prices undermined Russia’s economy.
Back in 2014, Russia was excluded from the G8 and many other international organizations, while the USA and EU suspended military and political cooperation with it.
Moscow’s attempts to stop NATO enlargement and get the CEE and Baltic countries to leave the Alliance were unsuccessful. In 2023-2024, Finland and Sweden became new members of the Alliance. As a result, Russia’s border with NATO doubled to 1,200 km, and the flight time of missiles to targets in the north-eastern region of the RF, including St. Petersburg, was reduced to a few minutes.
At the same time, Russia began to lose ground in regions of the world that were important to it. In 2024, with the active participation of Türkiye and the USA, the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who was the main conduit for Russian interests in North Africa, was overthrown in Syria. And in early 2026, the USA removed Venezuelan President Maduro, who was considered Russia’s main ally in the Caribbean, from power. Next in line is the Ayatollah regime in Iran, which is Russia’s ally in the Middle East.
Russia’s influence has weakened even in the post-Soviet space. The USA has taken the initiative in the Caucasus and, together with China, has begun to take Central Asia away from Russia. However, it has already essentially fallen under the influence of the PRC.
A direct blow was dealt to Putin. In 2023, the International Court of Justice in The Hague opened a criminal case against him for the abduction of Ukrainian children.
The situation is even more negative for Russia in the military sphere. It captured most of Ukraine’s territory thanks to the military superiority of its army and Ukraine’s unpreparedness for war in the early stages of the Russian invasions in 2014 and 2022. Nevertheless, the Ukrainian Defense Forces managed not only to stop the Russian blitzkrieg, but also to liberate a significant part of the occupied territories. As a result, of the 20% of Ukrainian land seized by Russia, only 3% was taken during combat operations. The price for this was the loss of more than 1.2 million servicemen, 11.7 tanks, 24,000 armored combat vehicles, 37,500 artillery systems, 1,300 air defense systems, 435 aircraft, almost 350 helicopters, and more than 30 ships and submarines. In other words, it lost almost all of the armored vehicles and artillery that were in the Russian Armed Forces before the war, as well as 14 tactical aviation regiments and 10 helicopter regiments. Russia’s Black Sea Fleet was effectively reduced to a flotilla and was forced to leave Crimea and retreat to Novorossiysk. As a result, Russia failed to achieve dominance in the Black Sea region, ceding it to Türkiye.
Moreover, since 2023, the war has spread to Russian territory. First, in the form of raids by units of the Russian Volunteer Corps on Belgorod region, and then the Armed Forces of Ukraine’s raid on Kursk region of the RF, which lasted from August 2024 to March 2025. This demonstrated Russia’s inability to protect its borders. It cannot do so even in its own airspace. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are confidently striking targets on Russian territory.
As already mentioned, the war has effectively become a war of attrition. In this situation, Russia is trying to force Ukraine to capitulate by destroying its energy infrastructure and causing a humanitarian crisis in the country. But it is not succeeding in this either.
In fact, Russia has been unable to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield using conventional weapons. It will not be able to defeat NATO either. Therefore, it will not dare to start a full-scale war against Europe. The most it will do is provoke a conflict in one of the Baltic countries and intervene in it in a localized manner. That is why the USA and leading European countries have stopped fearing it, although they are preparing to repulse possible Russian aggression. As for the nuclear weapons with which Russia blackmails the collective West, everyone has long understood that such threats are nothing more than a bluff.
Russia’s economy is on the verge of disaster. In 2025, its dynamics changed from relatively stable growth to stagnation and recession. For now, military orders are saving it, but the Russian military-industrial complex is increasingly beset by problems. The reason is the cumulative effect of Western sanctions and US measures to lower global oil prices and deprive Russia of its energy markets. In other words, by undermining Russia’s economy, they are trying to force Russia to end the war against Ukraine and give up its aggressive policy. This has been achieved mainly by limiting Russia’s oil and gas revenues, which account for the bulk of its state budget. At the same time, Russia itself is increasing its spending by ramping up military expenditures. All this has already led to a significant increase in the Russian state budget deficit, which could reach a critical level of 10 trillion rubles this year. At the same time, inflation is rising rapidly. It far exceeds the officially defined rates and could increase significantly if the banking system collapses. It is already in crisis, as the share of overdue loan payments has exceeded 10% of their total volume.
As a result, most enterprises in the civilian sector of the Russian economy are in an extremely difficult situation. The crisis has had the greatest impact on the coal, metallurgical, forestry, automotive, aircraft manufacturing, and construction industries, as well as on the production of agricultural machinery and rail transport. Only the industries directly related to the fulfillment of military orders have maintained relatively positive dynamics.
There are no real opportunities to eliminate such problems in Russia. The USA and the EU will not lift sanctions against it; on the contrary, they will only intensify them. There is no real information about the growth of world oil prices. Prices will only fall, as oil from Venezuela is already beginning to appear on the market. And if negotiations between the USA and Iran on the latter’s nuclear program are concluded positively, the volume of Iranian oil entering the market will also increase.
By the end of this year, Russia will have completely lost the European oil and gas market. India and Turkey will also reduce or completely stop importing Russian energy carriers. China will remain Russia’s only powerful partner in the oil and gas industry, but it will also import its energy carriers only at significant discounts.
Given these circumstances, many experts predict that Russia will experience a full-scale financial and economic crisis as early as this summer. In such a situation, even the restoration of peace will not enable Russia to overcome its problems. In the best-case scenario, it will remain a backward country for decades. In the worst-case one – it will suffer the fate of the former USSR.
Undoubtedly, Ukraine has also suffered extremely negative consequences from the war, losing its territories, a significant part of its population, and its economic potential.
Many people have died on the front lines, fallen victim to Russian strikes on peaceful settlements, or fled abroad to save themselves. Children are being forcibly taken from the occupied territories to Russia. Many citizens have lost their homes and become displaced persons. And that’s not to mention the suffering of people from the lack of heat and electricity.
Ukrainian enterprises remain in the occupied territories, including those that were part of key sectors of our economy. Those located in the free part of Ukraine are systematically attacked and destroyed or completely demolished. The same is happening to the energy, transport, and housing infrastructure and utilities.
We have a high level of government budget deficit. There are not enough funds for defense or for supporting the country’s economy. Unfortunately, corruption has not been overcome, and there are those who are trying to enrich themselves during the war.
Nevertheless, Ukraine has stood firm and has not surrendered to Russia. As already mentioned, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have managed to stop the aggressor and even liberate part of Ukrainian territory. Currently, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are confidently holding the front line and, in some places, are carrying out counteroffensive operations, as is the case in Zaporizhzhia. Besides, the Armed Forces of Ukraine now have the ability to strike targets on the aggressor’s territory from a distance, including with their own weapons. This has caused significant damage to Russia’s oil and gas industry, which has become, so to speak, a significant addition to Western sanctions. Strikes on Russian military-industrial complex enterprises, including missile and UAV production plants, have also been intensified.
Ultimately, the Ukrainian Defense Forces have become completely different from what they were before the war. They have almost completely switched to effective Western weapons and modern military equipment of their own production. Before the war, who could have imagined that Ukraine would have Abrams and Leopard tanks, Bradley fighting vehicles, Patriot, SAMP/T, IRIS-T, and HAWK air defense systems, as well as F16 aircraft? Now they are here, along with various types of UAVs. In less than four years, Ukraine has modernized the Neptune missile, increasing its range, and has developed and launched production of the new Flamingo cruise missile, which is in no way inferior to its Russian counterparts.
Ukraine has gained sufficient experience in the war with Russia that no other country has. It is already sharing this experience with NATO countries, which are adopting it as part of their preparations to repel possible Russian aggression.
All this has made Ukraine one of the main forces in deterring Russia, which has significantly increased the role and importance of our state for Europe. Today, Ukraine is already one of the key elements of the Euro-Atlantic and European security system as its front line on the southeastern flank of the European theater of operations. That is why Europe and, in general, the USA support Ukraine in its military confrontation with Russia. With such support, military-technical aid is provided to Ukraine, the functioning of its economy is ensured, and assistance is provided in European integration. The issue of Ukraine’s accession to NATO has been postponed for now, but it will receive other forms of security guarantees from its partners.
Ukraine has earned its right to become part of Europe and has already done so. One way or another, the war must end and Ukraine will be able to revive itself as a strong, prosperous, and authoritative European state. Its main task will be to protect Europe from threats from Russia, which will remain in any case.
Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine has had a significant impact on the global situation. It has provoked a new Cold War between Russia and the West. Moreover, China, Belarus, Iran, and North Korea have openly or covertly sided with Russia.
Most of the world supports Ukraine, or at least demonstrates this at the UN and other levels. Unfortunately, a certain part of the world community does not understand the essence of the Russian-Ukrainian war or does not want to spoil relations with Russia, and therefore does not condemn its actions against Ukraine. In this situation, Europe has finally understood the reality of the threats to its security from Russia and has changed its collective thinking from peaceful to military. This has noticeably united European countries around the issue of joint resistance to Russian aggression. As a result of these processes, Europe has begun active measures to strengthen its security, including large-scale rearmament. As already noted, Ukraine plays an important role in addressing European security issues.
The USA has also increased its focus on countering Russia, as it sees it as a threat to its strategic security in the nuclear missile sphere. However, in the context of conventional warfare, it views Russia only as a regional adversary in the European theater of operations. In this regard, the USA continues to provide assistance to Europe to contain Russia.
Countering the Russian Federation, which has become particularly relevant after its attack on Ukraine, remains the basis of transatlantic unity. However, the intensifying rivalry between the USA and China is diverting America’s attention and resources away from Europe.
At the same time, Russia’s war against Ukraine has set an example for other totalitarian regimes, which are making their policies more aggressive. This increases the risk of wars and armed conflicts, undermining global stability. And this is despite the fact that the existing international security system has finally lost its effectiveness in terms of preventing crises. This was openly acknowledged by the USA, represented by President Donald Trump, who began building a new world order led by America.
The world has become much more complex and dangerous for every country, because only the strong can survive in it.
Thus, the Russian-Ukrainian war has completely changed Russia and Ukraine, and is also having a strong impact on the situation in the world. The war has ambiguous consequences for its participants and the countries involved in it, both destructive and stimulating.
As a result of the war, Russia has made certain territorial gains, but its international position and economy have been undermined. At this, it has failed to win the war, which has turned it into a secondary country and faces the prospect of possible disintegration.
Ukraine has suffered significant human, territorial, and economic losses. However, it has survived and has not surrendered to Russia. Moreover, Ukraine has already become part of the Euro-Atlantic and European collective security system, which consolidates its position in Europe as an equal member of the European community.
Europe has recognized the reality of threats to its security from Russia and has begun large-scale preparations to repel possible Russian aggression. Although the USA has focused on containing China, it continues to assist Europe in its confrontation with the Russian Federation.
Russia’s actions have led to the resumption of a new Cold War in the world, while the existing collective security system has effectively ceased to function. As a result, the risks of new wars and conflicts are increasing, making the world more complex and dangerous for everyone.
Oleh Bereziuk, Yurii Mykhailenko,
Institute for Global Politics
Collage by Serhiy Polishchuk / АрміяInform
