The New System of Euro-Atlantic and European Security and Ukraine’s Place and Role in It

Part 1

1. Reasons and pPreconditions for the Activities of the USA, NATO, and the EU to Create a New Euro-Atlantic and European Security System

Changes in the global situation are forcing the USA, NATO, and the EU to make adjustments to the Euro-Atlantic and European security system in order to bring it into line with current realities. The main factors causing this need are:

• Russia’s openly aggressive foreign policy, which is being implemented by military means. For example, Moscow continues its war against Ukraine and may well attack Europe;
• intensifying rivalry between China and the USA and Europe. This is now moving from the political and economic spheres into the military sphere, as China builds up its military capabilities;
• the experience of the Russian-Ukrainian war, which demonstrates the need for a profound transformation of NATO’s strategy and tactics, given the emergence of fundamentally new forms and methods of warfare, as well as the consequences of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The process of building a new system of Euro-Atlantic and European security, but in fact – its return to the principles of the past Cold War – began in 2014 after Russia’s first attack on Ukraine. At that time, the West perceived the attack as a threat to its security, which required a response. Thus, at the NATO summit in Wales in September of that year, a decision was made to end cooperation with Russia in the security sphere and move towards its military containment.

First and foremost, this meant strengthening NATO’s forward presence in Central and Eastern Europe, South-Eastern Europe, and the Baltic states, as well as resuming Alliance joint exercises to address possible aggression from Russia. These plans were expanded and specified at the NATO summit in Warsaw in June 2015 and supplemented at subsequent Alliance events. At the same time, a number of programs were adopted to provide military-technical and other assistance to Ukraine, as well as to deepen cooperation with it.

In accordance with these decisions, multinational NATO battalion-level combat groups were deployed in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland in 2017-2018. And in 2020-2021, NATO’s multinational rapid deployment corps “North-East” with headquarters in Poland and “South-East” with headquarters in Romania became operational. At the same time, they were supplemented by the US Army’s 5^th Corps, which was re-established in Europe with headquarters in Poland. NATO member countries began strengthening their armed forces at the national level.

At the same time, the command, communications, intelligence, and logistics systems that NATO had during the Cold War and later reduced were restored. This was also the case with the system for the rapid redeployment of US troops from the continental United States to Europe.

In turn, the EU leadership intensified efforts to strengthen Europe’s economic and energy security by reducing its dependence on Russian energy carriers. This mainly involves the construction of terminals for receiving and regasification of liquefied gas, integration of European energy markets and networks, and transition to renewable energy carriers

In 2017, US President Donald Trump raised the issue of increasing Europe’s responsibility for its own security for the first time. Even then, he justified this by the need to reorient part of US military resources from the European to the Indo-Pacific (Asia-Pacific) theater of operations in order to contain China, and demanded from European countries to increase their military spending in order to enhance their capacity to counter Russia.

However, at that time, Trump’s demands were not accepted in Europe, which led to a deterioration in US-European relations. Despite Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, its increasingly anti-Western rhetoric, and its intensified military preparations, most Europeans did not believe in the reality of military threats from Russia. At this, Europe maintained close economic ties with Russia, which allowed it to ensure positive economic growth and build up its military potential.

Thanks to the implementation of cooperation programs between NATO, the EU, and Ukraine, progress has been made in the processes of its Euro-Atlantic and European integration. At the same time, no concrete plans for Ukraine’s accession to these organizations were not implemented, while Ukraine itself was viewed only as an object of limited assistance and a buffer zone between Europe and Russia, rather than an element of European security. In particular, the USA and NATO organized joint military exercises with Ukraine, but only began supplying it with weapons in 2021, when Russia’s preparations for an attack became quite obvious.

After Russia launched a full-scale war against Ukraine in February 2022, the activities of the USA, NATO, and the EU to strengthen the Euro-Atlantic and European security system and deter the aggressor reached a qualitatively new level.

At the NATO summit in Madrid in June of that year, a new Strategic Concept for the Alliance was adopted, which identified Russia as the most significant and immediate threat to NATO’s security. At this, Russia’s war against Ukraine was recognized as the greatest security crisis in Europe since World War II. Besides, for the first time, a NATO concept document outlined the challenges to the Alliance’s security, interests, and values posed by China.

Given the global situation and threats to the North Atlantic Alliance, the document set out new tasks for NATO. These are as follows:

• deterring Russia and China;
• strengthening the Alliance’s defense;
• preventing and resolving crises;
• deepening cooperation with partners.

These tasks included the following: further strengthening NATO’s forward presence in the European theater of operations; reforming the Alliance’s Response Force and increasing its strength from 40,000 to 300,000 troops; improving the command and control system; enhancing the effectiveness of missile defense and air defense systems; modernizing regional defense plans; developing defense production; and increasing NATO countries’ defense spending to 2 % of GDP.

A decision was also made to change defense plans. Previously, these plans allowed for the temporary withdrawal of NATO’s frontline troops from the border into their own territory, which was supposed to create more favorable conditions for conducting a defensive operation together with the Alliance’s main forces. After that, it was planned to restore the situation through counterattacks. However, the mass atrocities and war crimes committed by the Russian Armed Forces in the Ukrainian territories they occupied proved that such an approach was unacceptable. According to the new plans, the borders are defended rigorously. This was another reason for increasing the number of frontline troops.

In line with this approach, four more multinational battalion-level combat groups were formed in Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania, and Slovakia. Their number reached eight in the strip from the Baltic to the Black Seas. At the same time, the process of deploying them from battalions to brigades began precisely where it was necessary. In 2024-2025, the first two such brigades were created in Latvia and Lithuania.

The European Union also took a more active stance on ensuring European security. At the European Council meeting in June 2022, it was pointed out that the following measures needed to be taken:

• strengthening the European defense component;
• increasing the EU’s capacity to prevent and respond to crises and conflicts;
• deepening cooperation with NATO;
• increasing domestic production of weapons and military equipment;
• increasing defense spending from European funds.

At the same time, the nature and measures of the USA, NATO, and the EU to support Ukraine in its military confrontation with Russia began to change for the better. They began to view their assistance to Ukraine as a significant contribution to Euro-Atlantic and European security, as Ukraine became one of the main forces in deterring Russia’s military expansion in Europe. Based on this, Ukraine’s Western partners began to consistently increase their supply of weapons to Ukraine, which became increasingly powerful, including unmanned aerial vehicles, rocket and artillery systems, tanks, and other armored vehicles, and then Western-style aircraft.

Western countries also helped develop Ukraine’s defense industry, enabling it to independently manufacture a significant amount of the necessary weapons. However, partners refused to supply Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of destroying targets deep inside Russian territory. Ukraine was also advised not to do this on its own. This position was justified by the threat of escalation of the war and the possibility of the USA and Europe being drawn into it.

However, the USA and the EU significantly increased sanctions pressure on Russia, which served as a powerful supplement to aid Ukraine in the Russian-Ukrainian war and deterred Russia from attacking Europe, as well as a factor in improving European security.

All this strengthens the Euro-Atlantic and European security system. At the same time, it has not undergone any significant changes, with the exception of Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Real transformations began only after Donald Trump returned to power in the USA in early 2025. Upon entering the White House, he again began to demand that Europe take greater responsibility for its own security so that the USA could free up its forces to contain China. At this, unlike during Trump’s previous term, these demands were accompanied by intense pressure on Europe, which forced it to agree to them. In addition, the increase in military threats from Russia had already convinced EU leaders and the leaders of major European countries that it was necessary to strengthen Europe’s defense by allocating more resources. This is how Europeans’ thinking began to shift from peaceful to military.

Following discussions on these issues during a series of events organized by the North Atlantic Alliance and the European Union in the first half of 2025, the principles and mechanisms for building a new Euro-Atlantic and European security system were defined. In June, NATO and EU leaders adopted them at their summits in The Hague and Brussels. They are currently being implemented and improved in line with developments.

2. Principles for Building a New Euro-Atlantic and European Security System

According to the decisions taken, the new Euro-Atlantic and European security system provides for a redistribution of functions between the USA and Europe. Thus, the USA will focus on containing China at the global level and in the Asia-Pacific region, while Europe will focus on countering Russia. At this, the USA will remain the main guarantor of Europe’s strategic security and will assist it in countering Russia in the European theater of operations.

Within the framework of such approaches at the strategic level, the USA, together with France and the UK, which also possess strategic nuclear weapons, will continue to play a leading role in nuclear deterrence against Russia and China. They will continue to interact in peacetime and wartime through the NATO Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), as well as the US Strategic Command and the relevant bodies of the national armed forces of France and the United Kingdom.

At the same time, France’s nuclear forces currently operate almost autonomously (the country does not participate directly in the NPG), while the UK is integrated into NATO’s nuclear system, and in fact – into that of the USA. Closer cooperation between nuclear forces of the USA and France is only envisaged in wartime. In particular, in case of the destruction of France’s nuclear missile command system, there is a possibility that its submarines could be reassigned to the USA.

However, the increase in nuclear threats from Russia is forcing France to change its position. In July 2025, France and the UK signed an agreement (the so-called Northwood Declaration), which for the first time allowed them to coordinate their actions in the nuclear sphere. In view of this, it is quite possible that France will also join the NPG.

Currently, the USA has approximately 3,700 nuclear warheads, of which 1,700 are deployed and 1,900 are in reserve. France has 350 nuclear warheads at its disposal, and the UK has 225. In other words, in terms of the total number of deployed nuclear warheads, they still outnumber Russia and China. However, China’s build-up of its nuclear missile capabilities could affect this ratio.

At the same time, the USA will maintain its leading role in NATO’s tactical nuclear component in the European theater of operations and will perform the necessary tasks together with the UK and France, as well as other NATO member states that do not have nuclear weapons but can participate in their use.

As before, the US forward nuclear presence in Europe will consist of strategic bombers based in the UK, tactical aircraft at bases in Germany, tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) carrier ships in the North Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, and the North Atlantic, as well as TNW storage facilities in the United Kingdom, Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Türkiye.

In addition to the USA, dual-use aircraft such as the F-16, Tornado IDS, and F-35A, certified for use with American B61 nuclear bombs, are located in Belgium, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, and Türkiye.

Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Denmark, and other countries may participate in SNOWCAT (Support of Nuclear Operations with Conventional Air Tactics) missions, providing their aircraft for escort, refueling, electronic warfare, and logistics support for strike aircraft equipped with nuclear weapons.

Despite the redistribution of functions between the USA and Europe, the North Atlantic Alliance, as a defense union, will remain the main military component of the Euro-Atlantic and European security system. The European Union will perform the functions of financial, economic, and military-technical support for European defense. Besides, the EU will deal with specific military issues.

The transformation of NATO and the EU in accordance with the new principles is based on their own plans and the provisions of the joint document “Preserving Peace – Defence Readiness Roadmap 2030”, which was adopted in October 2025. In particular, it provides for:

creation of new structures necessary for the integration into NATO of Finland and Sweden, which have become the Alliance’s front line in Northern Europe and complement the Baltic States and Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe. At the same time, no significant changes to the overall structure of the Alliance are planned.

At the moment, NATO’s Joint Forces in Europe include three Joint Commands, including:

1. “Brünssum”, headquartered in the Netherlands, responsible for Northern Europe (the Arctic region), Central and Central-Eastern Europe, and the Baltic region;
2. “South”, with headquarters in Verona, Italy, responsible for Southern and Southeastern Europe and Turkey, the Mediterranean and Black Sea regions;
3. “Lisbon”, with headquarters in Portugal, responsible for Western Europe.

Each of them commands NATO’s land, air, and naval forces in their respective areas.

A decision has been made to establish a new NATO Joint Military Command “North” (the name may be different), which will command the joint forces of Norway, Finland, and Sweden. It will assume responsibility for Northern Europe. The NATO Land Forces Command “Northern Europe” has already been established with headquarters in Finland. In the near future, the NATO Air Force Command “North” with headquarters in Sweden and then the Naval Forces Command “North” with headquarters in Norway are to be established.

Further strengthening of NATO’s Allied Forces’ forward presence in Europe. The process of transforming NATO’s multinational battlegroups in the Baltic States and Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe from battalions to brigades will continue. Another such group is being deployed in Finland under leadership of Sweden;

improving the air defense system with a focus on strengthening capabilities to counter UAVs and Russian missiles with improved tactical and technical characteristics. NATO and the EU are jointly implementing a program to create a European air shield, which includes two interrelated projects: Eastern Sentry and European Wall of Drones.

Eastern Sentry involves the redeployment of NATO air defense forces and assets in the European theater of operations, focusing them on the most important threat areas. NATO member states are already developing this initiative, deploying their fighter jets to forward areas, particularly in the Baltic states, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria. This makes it possible to improve countermeasures against enemy aircraft, although it is not very effective against UAVs.

The European “wall of drones” is a joint development by the Estonian company DefSecIntel and the Latvian company Origin Robotics, which is a multi-layered UAV defense system called Eirshield. It consists of radars, video cameras, radio frequency detectors, electronic warfare and fire systems, as well as interceptor drones. All this is combined with an automated control system based on artificial intelligence, which determines the coordinates and directions of movement of UAVs and the threats they pose, on the basis of which methods of their destruction are determined.

The European Commission plans to launch the European “wall of drones” by the end of 2026. The system is expected to be fully operational by the end of 2027. However, plans to create it are controversial among European countries. In particular, the leaders of Germany and France consider it too complex and expensive. There are concerns that it may quickly become obsolete, rendering the effort and money spent on it futile.

It has also been proposed to transform NATO’s Baltic Air Policing Mission into a military defense operation. Obviously, this involves increasing the number of NATO member countries’ fighter jets that will be involved in protecting and defending Baltic airspace on a rotational basis.

At the same time, a significant problem is NATO’s lack of air defense systems capable of neutralizing UAVs. The most effective of these for countering drones are considered to be the German IRIS-T, but today there are not enough of them to meet the needs of NATO/EU and Ukraine. And European industry is unable to quickly increase their production to the required quantity;

increasing military mobility. This refers to strengthening the capabilities for the rapid redeployment of reserves from the rear of the European theater of operations to the front lines, as well as the movement of troops from one flank to another. In particular, today, the redeployment of a full division-level unit from France to Poland takes about a month, which does not meet the needs of modern fast-paced warfare.

The reasons for this situation are: the complexity of bureaucratic procedures when military units cross borders, especially with weapons and equipment; insufficient capacity of roads and railways; a large number of bridges and tunnels that can be blown up by the enemy, blocking movement; a shortage of military transport aircraft capable of carrying heavy equipment.

The European Union is responsible for addressing these issues. It is negotiating with EU member states on border issues and implementing a number of programs to modernize railways and roads in Europe using its own funds and investments.

As a result, by 2027, it is planned to create a pan-European military mobility zone, or a so-called “military Schengen”, with harmonized rules and a network of routes for the rapid movement of troops and equipment throughout Europe.

Deployment of the European Union’s own Rapid Deployment Capacity, EU RDC. The total strength of the EU RDC is set at 5,000 personnel. They will work closely with NATO’s Response Force (NRF), which will be a major step in ensuring Europe’s ability to act quickly and decisively in case of a crisis. The EU RDC will be primarily responsible for civil response to man-made disasters and natural disasters;

strengthening the borders of NATO and EU member states with Russia and Belarus. This is being done by strengthening their protection by national border forces and creating systems of engineering barriers.

In addition to border services, national armed forces and territorial defense forces are involved in strengthening border security. These issues are being addressed during military exercises in Poland and Lithuania. This is particularly relevant for them because it is linked to provocative actions by Russian and Belarusian special services, which are recruiting migrants from Asia, the Middle East, and Africa to break through the Polish and Lithuanian borders. Similar exercises also take place in other Baltic countries and Finland.

At the same time, Poland has launched the “Eastern Shield” program, and the Baltic states – the “Baltic Defense Line” program, which combines modern surveillance and electronic warfare capabilities, various types of defensive structures (tank traps, anti-tank ditches, wire barriers, reinforced concrete walls), and minefields. Operational data analysis centers will be created to integrate the information collected by surveillance systems. They will use artificial intelligence to process data and automatically connect to weapon systems.

Finland and Norway, in turn, are setting up minefields on their borders with Russia.

The programs are supported by significant investments. In particular, Poland has allocated about $2.5 billion to the “Eastern Shield”;

development of a system to counter hybrid warfare and cyber attacks from Russia. Today, it is based on the European Centre of Excellence for Countering Hybrid Threats in Helsinki, Finland, and the NATO Cooperative Cyber Defence Centre of Excellence (NATO CCD COE).

Responsibility for implementing such plans rests with NATO and EU leadership. In September 2024, a new position of European Commissioner for Defence was introduced within the European Commission. He is responsible for cooperation between the EU and NATO, coordination of the defence industry, scientific research and design, as well as military mobility. In his work, the European Commissioner for Defense deals with military and political aspects of European security. The position is currently held by former Prime Minister of Lithuania Andrius Kubilius, who has an active pro-Ukrainian stance.

3. Financial Support for Measures to Create a New Euro-Atlantic and European Security System

Measures taken by the USA and the EU to create a new European and Euro-Atlantic security system are financed accordingly.

At the NATO summit in The Hague in June 2025, an agreement was reached for Alliance member countries to increase their defense spending to 5 % of GDP. Expenditures are divided into two categories: 3.5 % for NATO’s core defense needs and 1.5 % – for protection of critical infrastructure, civil resilience, innovation, and strengthening the defense industrial base.

In turn, in March of the same year, the EU leadership adopted the “White Paper on European Defense – Readiness 2030”, which defines the priority areas for allocating funds to strengthen European security, as well as the sources of their provision. In particular, the “White Paper” contains the “ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030” plan. The plan provides for the allocation of EUR 800 billion for the production of weapons and the development of the European defense industry.

One of the main sources of funding for these needs will be the Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund in the amount of EUR 150 billion ($168 billion), which was created by a decision of the European Council in June 2025. The fund will be replenished through joint borrowing and will provide long-term loans to EU members and other countries, primarily Ukraine, for initiatives to strengthen their defense and develop the European military industry. Loans from it can be transferred to weapons systems through joint purchases intended for the rearmament of Europe. The fund’s financial mechanisms will become a strategic platform for a radical upgrade of Europe’s defense capabilities amid growing threats from Russia and instability in relations with the USA. The decision to create the fund was taken by the EU Council at the highest level in June this year.

In addition, there are plans to potentially expand funding for defense and security projects using resources from the European Investment Bank and attracting private capital through the Savings and Investments Union (SIU). The Union was created by the European Commission in March 2025 with the aim of increasing the efficiency of attracting private savings to financial markets and their centralized allocation to critical sectors of the economy, in particular the defense industry.

Each of the European Union countries that are also members of the North Atlantic Alliance has been assigned specific areas where they can be most useful. In particular, Germany is taking the lead in strengthening European missile defense and air defense systems. In addition, it can meet the needs of EU armed forces for Leopard 2 A8 tanks and Zidean-class submarines.

To be continued.

Institute for Global Politics