The United States and Europe – for Ukraine. A United Front Against War
The meeting of the leaders of the United States, Europe and Ukraine on August 18 in Washington, DC, showed their unity on the conditions for ending the Russian-Ukrainian war. To some extent, Moscow also agreed to them;
All of this can serve as a basis for a peace agreement or truce. At the moment, everything depends on Russia and the outcome of the upcoming talks between D. Trump, V. Zelenskyy, and V. Putin;
These circumstances confirm the leading role of the United States as the most influential power in the world. Russia is still trying to present itself as a great world power, but it is not and will not be able to become one, so it is forced to give in to the United States and Europe under the pressure of their sanctions;
Sadly, in exchange for peace, Ukraine will have to accept the temporary loss of some of its territories. However, this will be offset by the acceleration of Ukraine’s accession to the EU and the receipt of reliable security guarantees from the United States and NATO.
Another important step in the negotiation process to end Russia’s war against Ukraine was the meeting of the leaders of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe on August 18 in Washington. It was a continuation of the talks between D. Trump and V. Putin on August 15 in Alaska in the United States and a prologue to the next negotiations.
In the near future, there should be a bilateral meeting between V. Zelenskyy and V. Putin, followed by trilateral talks between the Presidents of the United States, Ukraine, and Russia. Many hope that concrete prospects for restoring peace will be determined there. Although no one can give a 100 % guarantee that this will happen.
The results of such meetings and negotiations are well known and do not require additional analysis. At the same time, they allow to make certain assessments of the preliminary results of the peace dialogue and the situation around it, as well as a forecast of the prospects for further developments.
Thus, recent events within the peace process show that the negotiations are moving into a practical plane. While earlier the parties only demonstrated their views and ambitions and addressed certain humanitarian issues, now they are identifying specific ways to end the war. These changes open the way to restoring peace in the foreseeable future. However, we must take into account Putin’s mentality, which can interrupt the dialogue even if it threatens Russia with the collapse of its economy.
As shown by the events D. Trump has indeed changed his attitude to the war, Russia and Ukraine, and has chosen a more constructive position. Unlike at the beginning of the negotiations, he has now begun to understand which side is the instigator of the war, whether or not it wants peace, and what capabilities it has to realize its goals. With the exception of certain moments, D. Trump has so far refrained from harsh criticism of Russia, has not imposed new sanctions, but has not tried to put pressure on Ukraine, in fact, supporting it.
At the same time, the US President has primarily American and personal interests in mind. In particular, it is mutually beneficial trade and economic cooperation with China, which is considered to be one of the main US partners in this area. That is why D. Trump is trying not to impose secondary sanctions against China for its ties with Russia. On the other hand, a speedy end to the Russian-Ukrainian war without Ukraine’s surrender is important to him in terms of US prestige and his personal ambitions.
Despite disagreements over D. Trump’s policies, the United States and Europe remain united on key issues of Euro-Atlantic security. At present, this primarily concerns deterring Russia and countering its aggressive policies. Therefore, the United States and Europe are interested in preserving a strong, independent, and pro-Western Ukraine as the front line on the path of Russian military expansion. That is why they are uniting and coordinating their efforts to help and support Ukraine in its negotiations with Russia.
At the same time, for the United States, threats from Russia are less significant than challenges from China, while for Europe, they are a priority. In view of this, the United States is transferring greater responsibility for its security to Europe, including in the issue of providing assistance to Ukraine. This is confirmed by D. Trump’s scheme, which provides for Europe’s purchase of weapons for Ukraine from the United States. The same explains the EU’s imposition of more consistent and tougher sanctions against Russia.
The United States and Europe are also moving into the practical realm of providing new security guarantees to Ukraine. However, they are still trying to avoid an excessive aggravation of relations with Russia, let alone a direct military clash with it. For example, it is proposed to base Ukraine’s security system on the principles of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty on collective defense. The specific areas of such defense should be determined in the near future.
However, for the reasons just mentioned, it is quite difficult to implement plans to send military contingents of Western countries to Ukraine. There are still no clear and unambiguous decisions either on the creation of such a mission or on its composition and tasks. Moreover, some countries first agree to participate in it and then refuse.
In this situation, both the United States and Europe, as well as Russia, make certain concessions and compromises regarding Ukraine. In turn, our country has to do the same. For example, Ukraine’s Western partners have agreed to freeze military operations along the front line, which can be seen as a consequence of their inability to provide our country with the necessary amount of weapons. There is also their desire to speed up the peace process, to prevent the scale of the war from expanding (although it is already at the level of Russia’s maximum capabilities). However, this is not of strategic or extremely significant importance to them.
In turn, as a result of Western sanctions and the threat of their further strengthening by Washington and Brussels, Moscow was forced to cancel its claims to the entire territory of Ukraine’s Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, or at least demonstrate its readiness to do so. That is, to make concessions on issues that it considers strategic. However, according to media reports, Russia continues to demand that the entire territory of the Donbas be handed over to it, and that Ukraine not join NATO. In addition, it believes that the Russian language deserves state status and that pressure on the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate should stop.
As a result, Ukraine is faced with a difficult choice, namely, to continue the war with no real prospects for victory or to accept peace and the loss of part of its territory (Moscow’s other demands are not yet in question). A decision on this issue may be made during a meeting between V. Zelenskyy and V. Putin, and then D. Trump with both of them.
Unlike Ukraine, Russia has not been able to enlist the support of reliable and influential allies. And the ones it considers them to be, only realize their interests at its expense. Therefore, Russia cannot receive effective assistance from them in its confrontation with the United States and Europe. This refers to China, India, Brazil, South Africa and some other countries.
As you know, China formally supports Russia both politically and economically. But it is obviously putting pressure on Russia to agree to an acceptable option for ending the war. The reason for this is also clear. While the war is in China’s interests as a factor in dispersing the efforts of its geopolitical rivals in the United States and Europe, it is also beginning to harm its trade and economic cooperation with them. And Russia is already under its considerable influence.
Under such circumstances, China refuses to provide financial assistance to Russia in the form of loans and investments and uses the situation to force Russia to further reduce oil prices. Thus, in order to keep China as an importer of Russian oil in the face of the threat of secondary sanctions against it by the United States, Russia has introduced additional discounts on its energy carriers. India and other importers of Russian oil are doing the same. They are switching to other suppliers or demanding new discounts from Russia. Moreover, none of these countries supports Russia’s demands regarding Ukraine.
Against the background of the aforementioned meetings in Washington, both D. Trump and V. Putin spoke by phone with the leaders of China, India, Brazil, and South Africa to influence their positions accordingly. Most likely, it was D. Trump who gained the upper hand, as the situation for Russia has not changed for the better.
The trends under consideration are objective in nature. They make it possible to end or suspend the Russian-Ukrainian war on mutually acceptable terms. To tell the truth, they will not satisfy either Russia or Ukraine, but they are still the best of the worst. For now, the word is up to V. Putin.
Thus, the current situation regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine confirms that it is approaching a certain turning point, which may occur in the near future. However, it has not yet been determined what this turning point should be: either the signing of a peace agreement, the declaration of a truce, or the agreement on conditions for them.
D. Trump’s leading role in achieving such results shows that the United States retains its importance as a leading power in the world capable of influencing other countries, including Russia and its partners. However, D. Trump’s involvement in restoring peace in Ukraine is not determined by his altruism or selfless thoughts, but by US interests and his own ambitions.
No matter how hard Russia tries to portray itself as a great world power, it is not. This is evidenced by Moscow’s forced agreement to make concessions to the United States and Europe regarding Ukraine. These concessions are not equal to the corresponding concessions on their part, which shows Russia’s inability to stand up to the West on an equal footing. At the same time, V. Putin may refuse any compromise and continue the war, even if it threatens the existence of the country he represents.
Unfortunately, at this stage, Ukraine is unable to restore the integrity of its territory either by force or otherwise. However, the compensation for such losses will be the acceleration of Ukraine’s accession to the EU, as well as the fact that it will receive real security guarantees. And in the long run, the aggravation of internal problems in Russia, which is inevitable even if the war ends, could lead to its significant weakening and even disintegration, which would create preconditions for Ukraine to regain its territories.
Georhii Zahorskyi,
Institute for Global Politics
