Ukraine – Belarus: the End of Uncertainty
In the context of the Russian-Ukrainian war, risks to the national security of the Republic of Belarus are growing, due to the likelihood of the country being drawn into a real confrontation with Ukraine or countries on NATO’s eastern flank. At this, risks continue to grow due to the deepening economic crisis in Russia and the tightening of sanctions by the European Union and Ukraine.
With the introduction of new sanctions and the slowdown in negotiations with the USA, Belarus’ leadership is increasingly relying on cooperation and support from Russia. The European Union plans to significantly strengthen its sanctions policy against Belarus by extending a number of restrictions that were previously applied against Russia. The new package of sanctions should be aimed at reducing Minsk’s technological, economic, and logistical capabilities, as well as preventing the circumvention of existing sanctions. In the context of the sanctions policy, the publication of a list of Belarusian companies that are integrated with the Russian military-industrial complex and support Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, prepared by the Association of Former Belarusian Security Forces BelPol, was a landmark event.
The new package of EU sanctions could deal a painful blow to the economy of Belarus amid the virtual collapse of the real sector. In January 2026, industrial production fell by 3.4%, while manufacturing dropped by 7.5%. Warehouse stocks grew by 800 million rubles over the month, setting another historic record of almost 90% of monthly production. GDP fell by 1.2% over the month. For Belarus, support from Russia will not only significantly decrease due to the economic crisis in the RF itself, but will also result in political demands from Moscow.
In this context, the publication of a press release by the Foreign Intelligence Service of the RF on February 9, 2026, entitled “Western ‘Democratizers’ Again Targeting Belarus” sent a sharp political signal. In this document, the Foreign Intelligence Service, referring to “incoming information”, states that organizations from the USA, UK, Germany, Poland, and other European countries are “accumulating forces and resources to once again try to destabilize the situation and bring about a change in the constitutional order in Belarus”. Given that this statement was published the day after the talks between Aleksandr Lukashenko and Vladimir Putin, this publication can be seen as Russia’s direct threat to organize another operation under a foreign flag to destabilize the political situation in Belarus and change the regime if the Belarusian side does not make concessions to Moscow.
Among the key concessions that the Kremlin demands from the Belarusian leadership are as follows:
- payments on the national debt in 2026 to support Russia’s budget (4.7 billion rubles, or about $1.6 billion, must be allocated to service the external national debt); the Russian side has agreed to refinance only a small part of the amount due – about $250 million);
- transfer of critical technologies, production processes, and/or assets supplying the defense industry to Russian control;
- integration of Russian manufacturers into the supply chains of successful Belarusian manufacturers (primarily the Belarusian-Chinese passenger car manufacturer BelGee);
- integration or, at a minimum, coordination of the activities of Belarusian and Russian companies in the potash industry in third markets, which would limit growing competition from Belarusian potash producers;
- using the lifting of sanctions on Belarusian civil aviation to supply relevant spare parts to Russia.
Another unambiguous warning to Lukashenko came from Russian Deputy Foreign Minister M. Galuzin, who called on official Minsk to remain vigilant in negotiations and agreements with the USA. At this, he did not hide the Kremlin’s irritation at Washington’s attempt to play on the contradictions between Minsk and Moscow, including through the lifting of sanctions against Belavia airline for maintaining aviation restrictions against Russia.
Against this background, Ukraine’s announcement on February 18, 2026, of personal sanctions against Aleksandr Lukashenko, which include 17 restrictions, most of which will remain in effect for 10 years, caused a stir. They provide for the freezing of assets and capital, complete cessation of trade and economic operations and transit, suspension of financial obligations and permits, restrictions on participation in privatization and public procurement, a ban on certain property and corporate transactions, termination of international cooperation in various fields, and visa and property restrictions. This is a clear signal from Ukraine regarding Belarus’ role in the armed aggression and its assessment of the actions of the Belarusian leader. The retransmitters installed on Belarusian territory, which help Russia control drones over Ukrainian territory, and the deployment of the “Oreshnik” missile system, have confirmed Belarus’ continued participation in the war. In addition, Belarus is launching a project to develop ammunition production capacities, in particular for the most sought-after 152 mm artillery shells and rocket shells for Grad systems. This involves accelerating the construction of a special-purpose facility aimed at creating a full-fledged center for the serial production of artillery and rocket ammunition for Russia.
Thus, the systemic and purposeful steps taken by the Belarusian authorities to support Russia’s aggression necessitate a correction of Kyiv’s policy toward Belarus as a co-aggressor country. A state that crosses the line of international law and is recognized as an aggressor is in fact subject to the mechanisms of international legal responsibility. Ukraine has stated that it does not rule out further steps in case of an escalation of the official Minsk’s participation in the war.
As Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy pointed out in an interview with the Belarusian independent publication “Zerkalo”, we are “now demonstrating through political steps our attitude to the fact that he [Aleksandr Lukashenko] is getting involved in the war and helping Putin. But these are exclusively political or economic steps that do not affect the finances of ordinary Belarusians. It concerns exclusively this one person” [1].
Clearly, cooperation between Belarus and the USA will not guarantee protecting Minsk from new sanctions and will not automatically bring the Belarusian regime out of political isolation. Any real agreements between Minsk and Washington on new formats for cooperation without the Kremlin’s approval will be met with an extremely negative reaction from Russia. A telling example in this regard was Lukashenko’s refusal, under pressure from the Kremlin, to participate in the first meeting of the Peace Council on February 19, which was negatively perceived in Washington. Replacing Lukashenko with the Belarusian Foreign Minister did not save the situation, as the American side demonstratively failed to issue visas to the Belarusian delegation on time. Against the background of the consolidation of sanctions policy against Russia and Belarus by the West and Ukraine, Minsk is beginning to lose opportunities to improve its international position in the American direction.
As V. Zelensky noted, Ukraine will join the Belarusian-American track with the aim of providing US representatives with evidence of A. Lukashenko’s criminal involvement in the war against Ukraine, which may increase the risk of isolation for the current Belarusian authorities.
In this context, the dialogue between the Ukrainian authorities and Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s office, contacts with independent Belarusian media, and representatives of democratic forces are in fact aimed at further delegitimizing the Belarusian authorities, preventing Belarus from participating in peace talks, and bringing the aggressor’s accomplices to international legal responsibility for the crime of aggression against Ukraine.
[1] “Your country is taking a big risk”. For the first time since the start of the full-scale war, the President of Ukraine gave a major interview to the Belarusian media outlet Zerkalo // https://news.zerkalo.io/economics/120832.html?c
Maria Hutsalo
Expert, PhD
Collage from the website of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future
