The USA and Israel’s Military Operation Against Iran and Its Consequences for the Middle East, the World, and Ukraine
US President Donald Trump continues to implement his policies by military means. His latest such step – the military operation launched by the USA and Israel against Iran. At present, it has mainly negative consequences for the Middle East, the world, and Ukraine. But if it succeeds, the situation will change fundamentally. Conversely, if it fails, the situation will worsen significantly. Either way, the USA and Israel’s war against Iran has finally destroyed the international order that existed until now. Although, it was not the USA that activated this process, but Russia with its attack on Ukraine. In any case, strikes against Iran are beneficial for Ukraine, as they weaken Russia’s key ally. Plus, the destruction of Iranian dictator A. Khamenei by the USA can be considered a precedent.
Since the beginning of March this year, the military operation by the USA and Israel against Iran has become a new powerful factor influencing the development of the situation in the world. Although the hostilities are confined to the Middle East, the situation with the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI) affects the interests of Russia, China, Europe, and other countries, including Ukraine. Therefore, attention must be paid to determining the consequences of the war for the Middle East region itself, the world, and our country. This is especially true given that politicians and experts assess events in the Middle East differently depending on whose side they are. Therefore, it is worth considering what is actually happening from a broader geopolitical perspective.
According to most experts, the military operation by the USA and Israel against Iran has finally destroyed the system of balance of interests among the world’s leading powers, which served as a certain deterrent to wars and armed conflicts. The law of force has completely overcome the force of law. Now, only those who are stronger than those who start wars or armed conflicts can prevent them. No one can surpass the USA, and therefore no one is capable of stopping it. This applies, among others, to China, Russia, and Europe. As a result, the USA can ignore them, not to mention other countries, when it does not concern American interests. This is evidenced by the US military operation in early January this year to capture Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, despite the fact that he was supported by Russia and China. Subsequently, the USA eliminated Russian and Chinese oil businesses there, replacing them with American ones. Neither Russia nor China took any action in response, except to condemn the USA’s actions.
We are seeing the same thing now. Russia and China are merely condemning the US military operation against Iran, while expressing sympathy for the death of the country’s dictator, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Apart from convening the UN Security Council, which ended without result, nothing has been done. Perhaps Moscow and Beijing are secretly supplying Iran with weapons and sharing intelligence with it, but this is not essential.
In other words, the USA is gradually weakening the “axis of evil” consisting of China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and other rogue countries, which it considers to be the main source of threats to itself and an obstacle to consolidating its global leadership. The USA has already disconnected Syria (together with Türkiye) and Venezuela from this axis and is now turning its attention to Iran. Cuba may be next. However, the USA may postpone this and turn its attention to Russia. Now is a favorable moment for this.
Of course, the USA will not do this in the form of a military operation. After all, Russia has nuclear weapons. But at this stage, there is no need to do so. America is confidently strangling Russia economically and bringing it closer to disintegration, as happened once with the USSR. Only then can the USA use armed force to take control of Russian nuclear weapons, prevent a large-scale civil war on Russian territory, and liquidate those who attempt to establish a military dictatorship. This scenario may be considered hypothetical, but it is already being actively discussed by the Russian Z-community. However, in any case, the economic crisis in Russia will inevitably weaken it significantly, causing it to “drop out of the game” as an adversary of the USA. This will allow the White House to focus on containing China as America’’s geopolitical rival. Given that the potential of the United States of America still exceeds that of China, the USA will be able to consolidate its global leadership or, at least, build a so-called “asymmetric bipolar world”.
However, in order to tackle global geopolitical issues, the USA must first deal with the Iranian problem. The first stage of the operation was carried out swiftly by the USA and Israel. It resulted in the liquidation of both A. Khamenei himself and most of the local military leadership. At the same time, in order to achieve their goals, Washington and Tel Aviv must change the government in Iran. There are two possible options in this regard:
One – the USA will continue to launch massive strikes against Iran for several days or even weeks, which will provoke chaos in the country. After that, the USA will form and support the Iranian opposition and bring it to power.
Two – the USA will negotiate with the new leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, who will replace Ayatollah Khamenei, that Tehran will halt the process of developing nuclear weapons and abandon its anti-American and anti-Israeli policies. At the same time, the USA will not interfere in Iran’s internal affairs. In other words, they will do what was done with Venezuela.
So far, the situation is developing according to the first scenario. According to US President Donald Trump, America is preparing to launch new powerful strikes against Iran, seeking to destroy Iranian ballistic missiles and the fleet first and foremost. At the same time, the process of destroying the IRI’s top leadership will continue. However, a ground phase of the operation is not planned at this stage. Negotiations with Iran are continuing.
Despite the death of Iranian leader Ali Khamenei and the country’s top military command, as well as the virtual destruction of Iran’s air defense system and damage to air and naval bases and other facilities, Tehran still refuses to back down. The Assembly of Experts has elected the son of former Iranian dictator M. Khamenei as the new supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, indicating that the current Iranian government will continue on its current course.
At the same time, Iran is trying to hit American military bases in neighboring countries and destabilize the situation in the entire region by launching missile and drone strikes there. In addition, Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, which has virtually halted oil and gas exports from the Persian Gulf countries. Islamic extremist organizations Hamas and Hezbollah, which are controlled by the Islamic Republic of Iran, are also joining in the actions against Israel.
All this directly affects the situation in the Middle East, has consequences for the world, and affects Ukraine’s interests. At this stage, most of these aspects are negative in nature, but may change in the future depending on the outcome of the war. For example, Iran’s actions mentioned above have indeed destabilized virtually the entire Middle East. The shelling has led to casualties among the civilian population of the countries in the region and damage to residential and other infrastructure. As a result, panic has begun to spread and businesses have suspended their operations. The halt in tanker exports of oil and gas is causing financial losses to energy companies.
Israel, which is the main target of Iran’s missile and drone strikes, has been hit the hardest. US bases have also come under attack. However, most of these strikes were repulsed. As expected, the war caused global oil prices to rise by about 14% and gas prices in Europe – by 45% to 90%. However, this is largely the result of market speculation. There is enough oil and gas. Moreover, on March 2, OPEC decided to increase oil production. And the USA is increasing the production of liquefied gas and its exports to European countries.
At the same time, relations between the USA and Russia and China have deteriorated, increasing political tensions in the world. As already mentioned, Moscow and Beijing are not interfering in the war in the Middle East yet. However, they are trying to exert political pressure on Washington through the UN Security Council and other channels. This does not particularly concern the USA in its relations with Russia, but China is an important country for it. However, the White House obviously hopes to end the war quickly on terms favorable to itself, which will allow it to remove this issue from the agenda.
The situation is quite negative for Ukraine. The escalation of the situation in the Middle East is objectively distracting the world community’s attention from Russia’s war against Ukraine. At this, Moscow is already justifying its attack on Ukraine by citing the precedent of US and Israeli actions against Iran.
It is also possible that the USA may reduce arms supplies to Ukraine due to its own growing needs in the war against Iran. This primarily concerns air defense systems. Another problem is the increase in petrol and diesel fuel prices in Ukraine due to rising world oil prices. Finally, rising world oil and gas prices increase Russia’s revenues and strengthen its ability to continue the war against Ukraine and its confrontation with the West. However, they are still limited by US and EU sanctions and are temporary in nature for the reasons listed above.
At the same time, a positive development for Ukraine is the apparent cessation of Iran’s supply of ammunition and UAV parts to Russia, which is using them in the war against Ukraine. Besides, Ukraine has taken the initiative to send its specialists in countering Iranian UAVs to the Middle East. If this initiative is implemented, it will increase the role and importance of our state for Middle Eastern and Western partners.
If the USA and Israel’s military operation against Iran is prolonged or even fails, the negative factors mentioned above will become even more acute. The White House will be forced to focus on the war and allocate more resources, including by reducing aid to Europe and Ukraine in their confrontation with Russia. This will reinforce the negative attitude of European allies to the USA.
This situation will strengthen Moscow’s position in negotiations with Washington on both Russian-American relations and Ukraine. As part of the dialogue, Russia may take advantage of the USA’s problems with Iran and propose an “exchange” for Ukraine. However, this is more likely to be a political ploy, as Moscow has no real ability to provide significant assistance to Iran.
Failures in Iran will also be used by D. Trump’s political opponents in the USA to undermine his electoral rating ahead of the midterm congressional elections. He already anticipates this and is beginning to look for those responsible for the possible failure of his operation in Iran. In particular, D. Trump accused former US President Joe Biden of “transferring too many weapons to Ukraine, as a result of which there are now not enough for America”.
The consequence of such developments at the global level will be strengthening of the “axis of evil”, which will enable it to more strongly oppose the USA and Europe and, in general, the democratic world. Russia will most likely use this to intensify combat operations on the front lines in Ukraine in order to achieve decisive successes and force it to capitulate.
Iran will be able to develop nuclear weapons and become the “strike force” of totalitarian countries in the struggle for world domination. At this, in order to prevent possible new attacks on it from neighboring countries, it will destabilize the entire Middle East.
In turn, the USA and Israel’s relatively quick victory over Iran without excessive losses for themselves and their allies and partners will lead to positive changes in the Middle East and the world and will serve Ukraine’s interests. This could mainly be the result of the current regime in Iran being replaced by a secular and relatively democratic pro-Western government or, at least, the country’s leadership giving up its nuclear weapons program and anti-American and anti-Israeli policies.
In this case, Iran will transform from a source of tension and conflict in the Middle East into a partner of other countries in the region or, at least, a neutral neighbor. In addition, it will cease or significantly reduce its support for Islamic extremist and terrorist organizations, in particular Hamas and Hezbollah. This will create conditions for stabilizing the situation and establishing lasting peace in the Middle East.
At the same time, the entire “axis of evil” will be weakened. This will reduce its potential to create problems for the Western world. Plus, the USA will be able to increase its assistance to Europe and Ukraine in countering Russia and will intensify measures to neutralize it. Along with this, the USA will have access to Iranian oil, which will allow it to lower oil prices worldwide and gain additional leverage over Russia and China.
Iran will finally stop supplying weapons to Russia. Combined with its own problems and increased pressure from the USA, this will undermine Russia’s ability to continue the war against Ukraine.
Thus, the military operation against Iran launched by the USA and Israel confirms Donald Trump’s determination to achieve his goals by all means possible, including military ones. At this, he is not deterred by the fact that this destroys the world order and negatively affects the interests of Russia and China.
If Washington and Tel Aviv succeed in changing the government in Iran and its policies, this will have positive consequences for the Middle East, the world, and Ukraine. First of all, the situation in the Middle East will stabilize, the “axis of evil” will weaken, and Russia’s ability to continue its war against Ukraine will diminish.
At the same time, the protracted military operation by the USA and Israel will turn the entire Middle East into a zone of acute military conflict, strengthen the positions of Russia, China, and their allied totalitarian countries in their confrontation with the Western world, and will also allow Moscow to intensify its offensive actions on the front in Ukraine in order to force it to capitulate.
Currently, the USA is determined to continue military action against Iran. At the same time, Iran is not yet strongly resisting the US and is making efforts to destabilize the situation in the region. It is difficult to say how the war in the Middle East will end, but so far it has had a largely negative impact on the situation in the region and the world, as well as on Ukraine’s interests.
But then, anyway, Russia has demonstrated that it is unable to help its allies and partners, as well as defend its interests against the USA. Thus, it no longer has the right to claim to be a great world power.
Yurii Mykhailenko,
Institute for Global Politics
Collage: https://www.slovoidilo.ua/
