“I am absolutely convinced that Russia should not exist in the form in which it is. Because its imperial ambitions will constantly push it to new conquests, to new expansions. And if Russia does not disappear from the political map of the world, then not only Ukraine, but all of its closest neighbors will have problems.”

President of the Institute for Global Politics Oleh bereziuk answered the questions of Vitalii Naumenko – the host of the program “Syohodni. Vvecheri” (“Tonight” – Transl.) on the Ukrainian Radio.

“Syohodni. Vvecheri”. This is the Information and Analytical Program of the Ukrainian Radio. Hello, dear listeners. You are on the waves of the Public Broadcaster. Vitalii Naumenko continues to work in the studio of Ukrainian Radio. We will continue to talk about the safety margin of our enemy, the Ruscist Federation. From the situation in its troops to trends in their rear. And about the fact that another deadline has been set for Vladimir Putin, the Ruscist dictator. And about the extent to which things can improve after that, or worsen, or remain at the same level. Or whether Moscow will simply give up: “It”s not about us”.

I would like to welcome to our studio a guest, the President of the Institute for Global Politics Oleh Bereziuk. Mr. Bereziuk, glad to see you. Thank you for your attention to Ukrainian Radio.

– Thank you for the invitation.

– Your point of view concerns the endless deadlines of the 47^th President of the United States Donald Trump. The deadline for Putin has once again been reduced to ten days. But Russia is delaying a substantive response. This is what is out in the open, in sight, on social media. And Medvedev has started threatening Trump again. While Peskov, Putin’s Press Secretar, has said that Russia is not afraid of sanctions. What is the basis for Russia’s decision?

– This decision of Russia is based on only one thing: the United States is competing with China. And this is the main reason why Russia is behaving this way. If we compare the military power of the United States and its allies, if we compare the military power of Russia and its allies with the Western bloc, with the NATO bloc, I think we don’t have to go far. It is enough to look at open sources of information and it will become clear that this is not in Russia’s favor. But since the United States sees China as a competitor, it does not want Russia to collapse, which is why today’s situation is as it is. In fact, Putin got into trouble when his “Kyiv in Three Days” plan failed. And after that, it was clear that if Ukraine did not fall, the allies would continue to support it and would not let Putin win. Because Putin’s victory over Ukraine would be the West’s defeat, and the West has no reason to be defeated by Russia.

What did Russia want? It is clear that it wanted to conquer Ukraine, restore the Russian Empire, and continue to expand to the West. Well, not only to the West, but also to the East, as it was in the past. When this did not happen, it is now obvious that Russia has lost this war. Yes, the fighting is still ongoing, and there is no final decision on the situation, but we can say for sure that Ukraine has survived.

– If we analyze the decision of the US President, in particular in terms of threatening with another 10 more days, if there are no concrete steps by Moscow to cease fire for the sake of a truce, then Donald Trump will introduce the same sanctions law, long-suffering (given how long it has already existed), according to which sanctions from hell will be imposed on those countries that will buy Russian energy carriers. China’s reaction is already known. China has said that it will ignore this bill because it is profitable for it to buy Russian gas and oil at reduced prices. Are there any encouraging forecasts as to what might happen after the 10 days of these deadlines?

– To begin with, any economic sanctions will affect the course of the war. Obviously, the US economy is much more powerful than the economy of Russia and its allies, so it is unrealistic to expect that something will change in Russia’s favor in 10 days. The statements made by Peskov and Medvedev are more like shooting the breeze.

As for China. On the one hand, it is beneficial for China to buy Russian oil at a low cost. On the other hand, China is not interested in the war in Ukraine. For one simple reason: trade routes through Ukraine, through Russia, through Belarus to Europe, are blocked. And because of this, China’s economy is suffering because it is export-dependent. After all, the Chinese need to sell their goods. And the higher the trade turnover, the more powerful China’s economy will be.

As for Trump… Again, both the previous President Joe Biden and the current President, they still hope that Russia will become democratic over time and will be on the side of the United States in its confrontation with China. I don’t think so. I think this is a big mistake. I am absolutely sure that Russia should not exist in the form in which it is. Because its imperial ambitions will constantly push it to new conquests, to new expansions. And if Russia does not disappear from the political map of the world, then not only Ukraine, but all of its closest neighbors will have problems.

– Do you think that former President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev’s threats to start a war with the United States of America because of Donald Trump’s statements, because of his constant predictions, how does Putin’s environment qualify this? Is this more of a bluff, or does Moscow allow for the possibility of such a step?

– The end of Russia came when it attacked Ukraine. And to say that Russia will declare war with the United States and win this war… If they want to lose it within a few hours, they will lose it. This (Russia’s threatening – Ed.) is absolutely not serious. Yes, it’s a bluff, and it’s a primitive, cheap bluff, and I don’t even know who it’s aimed at.

– We will focus on two things for now. There are Donald Trump’s deadlines, Russia has been given 10 days. After that, there may be the introduction of this sanctions bill “from hell”, or something else, as Donald Trump mysteriously said. This is the first thing. And secondly, China, according to Reuters, has refused to comply with USA’s demands not to buy Russian oil and gas. What is your assessment of these endless predictions that the war will last until the end of 2025? Today they are already talking about 2026. Is there any visible Rubicon that we should be guided by? Does it exist, or does it depend, most likely, on a set of circumstances?

– Let’s go back 3.5 years. All the forecasts were that Ukraine would not last more than three days. Do you remember how they used to say that Ukraine would lose and Russia would conquer Ukraine in three days…

– You know, I always recall the memories of former Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, who was in the White House before the great invasion. He said that “when Joe Biden and Jake Sullivan looked at me, I could see in their eyes that they were already saying goodbye to me.” This is the phrase that best characterizes that dramatic moment.

– On February 24, my colleagues and I got together, took up arms and went to defend Ukraine. So, on the third day, when we saw how Russia was fighting, what tactics they were using, what weapons they had… I even posted on Facebook on the third or fourth day of the war, where I wrote that Russia had lost this war. And we see that three and a half years into the war, and they are not making any headway.

Today, the economy, technology, of course, and human potential are very important, but high-quality human potential, the kind that knows how to work with technology. If you look at the events at the front, Ukrainians are several heads above Russians in terms of intellectual capacity and motivation. Let’s look at those Russians who are captured. What is their motivation to fight? Debts – one, unemployment – two. That is, they go to war for money. Then, if you look at who is fighting, where are they mobilized from? They are not mobilized from Moscow or St. Petersburg. They are mobilized from depressed regions. They are mobilized from regions with a difficult demographic situation. What do I mean by this? Let’s take the North Caucasus. The North Caucasus has the highest population density. There are a lot of young people in the North Caucasus. And young people who are not involved, who are unemployed, who may show massive discontent tomorrow, which will be extremely difficult for Russia to eliminate.

Again, let’s look at the territory of Russia. It is the largest country in the world in terms of its territory. 11 time zones! But this territory is inhabited by only 144 million people. Russia borders on 16 countries. But if Russia has a conflict with someone else besides Ukraine, it will have nobody to defend its territory. It will literally have nobody to defend its territory! All forces are now focused on Ukraine. And the way they are fighting… We see that we can resist them, we can resist them effectively. And they will not be able to conquer Ukraine. And when it comes to the United States of America, other NATO countries, all those Russians’ threatening statements are not serious.

– I think your words are confirmed by simple calculations. Your colleagues have said that in order to conquer and hold a country as large in territory and population as Ukraine, at least two occupying armie are needed. That is, one that fights at the front and one that would serve as a police force in large cities. At least two, or even more. And we understand that such a situation is impossible for Russia from any point of view.

– In 2014, when the war broke out, General Paliy said the following to me: “What are they doing? Where are they going? Every bush and every window will be shooting at them.” And it was exactly so. When the Russians attacked Ukraine, the motivation of Ukrainians to defend their country, their independence, was extremely high. And so, even if they had theoretically come in and conquered something, there would have been a full-scale guerrilla movement, an underground, and they would have been destroyed at every turn.

– Let’s have a look at the role of North Korea, which, according to the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, at this stage of the large-scale war, addresses about 40 % of Russia’s needs for shells. Besides, it plans to send a new batch of its soldiers to the front, a figure of 30,000 is mentioned. The main thing is that they don’t care how many of them are being killed. But it is important to them that those who survive will gain combat experience. And this, from the point of view of the military and political leadership of North Korea, is the “main advantage” in this situation.

– Infantry does matter, but this is not World War II or World War I. Today, it’s technology that’s fighting. Here is a very simple example. Ten years ago, snipers were highly effective at the front. But the best sniper rifle “works” somewhere up to 2-2.5 kilometers, while the worst drone operator “works” at least at 5 km. Do you understand what I mean? I mean how fast the technology is developing and how much the situation at the front is changing. To say that a lot of manpower has arrived in Ukraine… This manpower evaporates very quickly. Therefore, to believe that North Korea plays a key role, plus to talk about the ammunition they have… It is not of the same quality as, for example, Western ammunition. Yes, there are a lot of them, but their use is not as effective as the Russians hope.

– If we return to the issue that, according to many experts, should be the decisive factor at this stage of the war, that is, the imposition of these tough sanctions by the United States, the imposition of duties on those countries that will buy Russian energy carriers, it is worth citing the obvious point of view of our enemies. Kremlin Spokesperson Peskov has said, as quoted by RBC Ukraine, that “Russia has developed a certain immunity to sanctions and is ready for new economic restrictions… We have been living under a huge number of sanctions for a long time, our economy is functioning under a huge number of restrictions. Of course, we have already developed a certain immunity in this regard,” Peskov said. He has informed that Russia records statements coming from US President Donald Trump and other international representatives on this issue. Are they afraid, or are they not?

– Let’s remember the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union was much more powerful than today’s Russian Federation. Why did the Soviet Union collapse? It could not withstand the arms race. The war in Afghanistan was the last point in the history of the Soviet Union. The war in Ukraine is much more complicated for Russia than the war in Afghanistan. It is much more complicated. That is why it is not worth talking about the fact that the Russian economy will withstand this arms race, competition with the West in the economy, in arms and in the war with Ukraine. I do not believe in this at all, because it is unrealistic.

What Peskov says, what Putin’s environment voices, testifies to their efforts to raise the spirit of those Russians whom they have talked into this war. But there is one simple question: why did the Russians attacked Ukraine? What did they left behind here? What do they need this war for? They absolutely do not need it. What they have done now, especially Russia’s leadership, is very well aware of. They cannot finish the war. They cannot continue this war either. Therefore, they will not conquer Ukraine, this is obvious. Because if they did not conquer it in three days, then they should have crawled back, regroup, invent something there. Now it is too late to do anything. Now the war has been going on for three and a half years, the economy is depleted, resources are depleted, and there are a lot of internal problems in Russia. And I am absolutely convinced that in order to correct the situation, it is necessary to change the leadership of Russia. First of all, remove Putin and his environment, bring them to criminal responsibility as war criminals. There are various forces in Russia that are ready to do this. Many of so-called democratically minded oppositionists say that they are ready, as they say, to surrender Putin, but to leave Russia as it is. I doubt this is worth being done. Because Russia must be dismantled for spare parts. Because a new government will come, but the imperial thinking of Russians will not disappear. And if we do not make Russia stop being dangerous for all its neighbors, then we can expect a new attack in a few years. Therefore, only demilitarization of Russia can remedy the situation.

– Obviously, denazification is what he, Putin, wanted to do to us, and now it’s boomeranged back to him. Please, be reminded, dear listeners, that you are listening to Ukrainian Radio, and our studio guest is Oleh Bereziuk, President of the Institute for Global Politics. We are talking about the safety margin of our enemy, the Rascist Federation. That is, how much and what is left and whether it will be enough to declare war on the United States of America. That is, whether it is a game or absolutely serious intentions. Sufficient to watch and listen to what they say in their so-called TV programs. That war is a normal state of society, that war brings scientific and technological progress, that war is the renewal of society.

Putin’ went so far that said that Russia is a nation which needs a constant “hustle” and constantly needs to fight with someone. This is an explanation of the factors why they cannot calm down, why they are a tremendous threat to humanity.

Speaking of Putin and the relationship between the Russian elites, can we say that they have complete control, or is there something brewing there that could result in some kind of separate peace in order to change the regime?

– Russian elites have no other choice. If they want to stay in the civilized world, if they want to keep what they have gained doing business, when they had the appropriate power and influenced political decision-making, then they have only one way out: to remove Putin from power. If this is not done, Putin will continue the war. He cannot say to Russians that we have not only lost this war, we have not won it. And then he will be asked questions: why did we go there, why did we start this war? This is the first thing. Secondly, people who received huge salaries and considerable compensation as combatants will return from the front. And after the war, they return to Russia to live a beggarly existence? When they say that the war is a purification, do they mean that they took prisoners from prisons and threw them, along with the sick, into “fodder” assaults? Is this how they resolved the problem of purification for themselves? For us, by opposing Russia’s aggression, we are demonstrating to the whole world that Russians and Ukrainians are not one nation. And we will wage our just war to a victorious end.

– I would like to ask you, Mr. Bereziuk, what scenario should we prepare for? Will we be able to hold out on the front? What will happen with Trump’s decision? What can we expect in the coming months?

– Given the current situation at the front, I can say for sure that we can withstand it. We are more concerned about the rear, the processes that are taking place in politics. Because destabilization inside the country can be very harmful to the front. After all, Putin, as a former KGB officer, is very well versed in the methods of special services, in particular, in sabotage, various kinds of information and psychological operations. He is a master at this. As for the front, its stability is important.

President of the Institute for Global Politics Oleh Bereziuk was a studio guest of Ukrainian Radio.

Listen to the full interview with Oleh Bereziuk here: https://ukr.radio/schedule/play-archive.html?periodItemID=4498646
as well as on the YouTube channel of the Institute for Global Politics https://youtu.be/llsrpKnZVUk