The United States and NATO Are Strengthening the System of Nuclear Deterrence of Russia and China Over the Increased Threats from Those Countries

The USA and NATO are paying more attention to their nuclear deterrence systems against their adversaries. This mainly refers to Russia and China, which possess nuclear weapons and pursue anti-Western policies.
This issue is currently extremely relevant for America and Europe, as Russia has moved to more large-scale nuclear blackmail and, together with China, is actively increasing its nuclear capabilities.
In response, the USA and NATO have begun to improve their nuclear weapons delivery systems and modernize their nuclear warheads without increasing their number. The effectiveness of the nuclear deterrence system is tested during various tactical and strategic exercises.
Compared to the previous administration, current US President Donald Trump has taken a more decisive stance against Russia and China in the nuclear sphere. At the same time, the actions of the parties increase the threat of nuclear war between them.

Given current global events, it can be concluded that the confrontation between Russia and the West is reaching a qualitatively different nuclear level. This is confirmed by the intensification of mutual threats from Moscow and Washington regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons against each other. In particular, this is accompanied by demonstrations of such capabilities. As confirmation, President of the RF Putin has announced the start of serial production and deployment of the “Sarmat” and “Oreshnik” nuclear missiles, as well as the successful testing of the “Burevestnik” missile and the “Poseidon” underwater vehicle. According to him, such “successes” give Russia an advantage over the USA and Europe with a guaranteed possibility of their destruction.

In response, US President Donald Trump reminded Putin of American submarines with nuclear missiles on board, which are located near Russia and can strike it first. At the same time, he announced his decision to resume nuclear testing in the USA, which has not been carried out since 1992.

At this, none of the sides is  limited to aggressive rhetoric, but they both are actively developing their nuclear missile capabilities. This issue deserves special attention, so it is advisable to consider it in more detail. The main focus will be on the nuclear missile forces of the USA and NATO, as Ukraine’s main partners. However, let us first outline the actions of Russia and China, which are the main sources of nuclear threats to America and Europe, and therefore to Ukraine.

Most experts consider Putin’s statements to be mere propaganda, as the missiles mentioned are technically imperfect or unlikely to exist at all. At the same time, Russia does have real achievements in the nuclear missile industry. In particular, the process of rearming the Russian Armed Forces’ Strategic Missile Forces with new “Yars” missile systems has been virtually completed. Over the past six years, five “Borei-A” strategic missile carriers have been added to the combat fleet of the Russian Navy. Four more such nuclear submarines are to be put into service in the coming years.

At the same time, Moscow has not yet exceeded the overall parameters of its nuclear missile potential, as defined by the Treaty between the Russian Federation and the United States on Measures for Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (START III). Russia has about 6,000 nuclear warheads, of which 1,500 are deployed and ready for use. Most of the approximately 4,500 undeployed warheads are strategic, while  a smaller portion are tactical weapons.

China’s nuclear missile potential is still significantly smaller than Russia’s and includes about 600 nuclear warheads. But its stockpile is growing rapidly. Besides, the PRC refuses to join any treaties on nuclear arms control or limitation. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), China has been producing about 100 nuclear warheads annually since 2023. By 2035, their total number could reach 1,500. At the same time, the Dongfeng-31 and Dongfeng-41 strategic missile systems are being developed. According to American experts who cite satellite images, China has built at least two ICBM silo sites in recent years, each with about 100 missile silos.

To maintain strategic parity with Russia and China, as well as to deter them, the USA and NATO are improving their nuclear capabilities. Although Washington is demanding that Europe take greater responsibility for its own defense, the USA remains the main guarantor of its nuclear security and is actively cooperating with European countries on this issue.

At the moment, the USA and NATO nuclear deterrence system includes:

• at the strategic level – the nuclear missile forces of the United States, France, and the United Kingdom, which have land, air, and sea components;
• at the tactical level – the air forces of the USA, France, and the UK, as well as a number of other European NATO members, certified for the use of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW). Most of the TNW are stored in US warehouses in Europe.

The USA has about 3,700 nuclear warheads, of which 1,700 are deployed and 1,900 are in reserve. France has 350 nuclear warheads at its disposal, and the UK has 225. In other words, in terms of the total number of deployed nuclear warheads, they still outnumber Russia and China. However, China’s build-up of its nuclear missile capabilities could change this balance.

The USA, France, and the UK cooperate in the nuclear missile sphere in peacetime and wartime through the NATO Nuclear Planning Group (NPG), as well as the US Strategic Command and the relevant bodies of the French and British armed forces. At the same time, France’s nuclear forces are virtually autonomous (the country does not participate in the NPG), while the UK is integrated into NATO’s nuclear system and, in fact, that of the USA. However, in case of the destruction of France’s nuclear missile command and control system during wartime, it is possible that its submarines could be reassigned to the USA.

There are currently six US tactical nuclear weapons depots in Europe, including Aviano and Ghedi in Italy; Büchel in Germany; Kleine-Brogel in Belgium; Volkel in the Netherlands; Incirlik in Türkiye; and Lakenheath in the United Kingdom.

Such weapons can be used by F-16, Tornado IDS, and F-35A aircraft certified for this purpose, which are in service with the air forces of the United States, Belgium, the United Kingdom, Italy, the Netherlands, Germany, and Türkiye.

The air forces of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Denmark, and a number of other NATO member states participate in the SNOWCAT (Support of Nuclear Operations With Conventional Air Tactics) mission, providing their aircraft for escort, refueling, electronic warfare, and logistics support for strike aircraft equipped with nuclear weapons.

The ability to use the forces and resources of NATO member countries as carriers of US nuclear weapons concentrated in European storage facilities is determined and regulated by the NATO Nuclear Sharing concept, adopted in 1954. Within its framework, bilateral agreements have been concluded between the USA and European member countries of the Alliance where American nuclear weapons are located.

Given the changes in the global situation, a new US Nuclear Posture Review was adopted in 2024, which provides for the preparation of the country’s armed forces for possible coordinated nuclear conflicts in which Russia may act in concert with China and North Korea. According to the document, the following measures are envisaged:

• strengthening measures to deter Russia, China, and North Korea from using nuclear weapons by demonstrating the United States’ ability to launch nuclear strikes in response;
• maintaining the readiness of US nuclear missile forces for combat use and improving their operational skills through relevant military exercises;
• strengthening the unity of the USA and its allies in the North Atlantic Alliance in pursuing a common policy to counter nuclear threats from Russia, China, and other countries;
• modernizing and developing nuclear missile forces, as well as improving their combat effectiveness.

After Donald Trump returned to power in the US, he expanded the scope of these plans. Thus, spending on the maintenance and modernization of nuclear weapons was significantly increased. For the period from 2025 to 2034, it is set at $946 billion, which is by 25 % more than was planned for 2023–2032. The main objectives of the US missile and nuclear forces improvement programs are:

• replacement of obsolete Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missiles with LGM-35 Sentinel ICBMs. This is the main ICBM modernization program;
• maintaining combat readiness and modernizing nuclear submarines and their Trident II D5 missiles ($228 billion);
• adopting new B-21 Raider bombers (the latest strategic bomber) and AGM-181 long-range missiles. In addition, B-52 bombers are being modernized to the B-52J Stratofortress version;
• replacement of E-4B Nighthawk and E-6B Mercury “doomsday” aircraft with E-4C (based on Boeing 747-8) and E-130J (based on C-130), respectively;
• development of long-range hypersonic weapons. The Army, in conjunction with the Navy, is implementing the “Dark Eagle” project. Much of the work and investment is being carried out by Lockheed Martin;
• modernization of nuclear weapons control systems;
• development of new nuclear munitions. In particular, new B61-12 tactical nuclear bombs were adopted in 2024. They have flight path control and correction systems, which enable them to hit targets more accurately and increase their ability to overcome enemy air defense systems. Their power can be adjusted. The bombs are designed for F-35 aircraft, which are being adopted by the USA and European countries to replace the F-16 and F/A-18.

In addition, the USA is strengthening its forward nuclear presence in Europe by increasing the number of tactical nuclear weapons stored in European warehouses.

In turn, the main direction for strengthening the European nuclear deterrence system (the European component of NATO) is to deepen cooperation between France and the UK, as well as to modernize their nuclear weapons.

In July this year, the leaders of France and the UK signed an agreement which for the first time allows them to coordinate their actions in the nuclear sphere. The stated goal of such actions was to increase the capabilities for deterring Russia.

France’s main efforts to develop its nuclear missile forces are focused on improving its naval and air components. In particular, measures are being taken to create a new generation of nuclear submarines with SNLE-3 G ballistic missiles. The first of these is to be commissioned by 2035. At the same time, existing submarines are being equipped with a new version of submarine-launched ballistic missiles with TNO-2 nuclear warheads, which have increased range and accuracy.

In addition, existing ASMPA air-launched cruise missiles are being modernized, and a new generation of cruise missiles is being developed, which are planned to be put into service in 2035. Plans are underway to purchase new A330 MPT Phénix refueling aircraft to replace outdated models.

As part of the military planning program for 2019-2025, $37 billion has been allocated for the modernization of France’s nuclear forces.

The UK is continuing to develop new A21/Mk7/Astraea nuclear warheads. They are planned to replace the US-UK A21/Mk4A/Holbrook warheads. The estimated yield of the new warhead is 350 kt, which is 3.5 times greater than that of its predecessor.

A number of infrastructure projects related to the program are also being implemented, including

• consolidation of operations for the assembly, maintenance, and decommissioning of nuclear munitions in one location;
• modernization of the Ministry of Defense’s research center, which is responsible for the design, production, and technical support of nuclear warheads;
• construction of new facilities for the production and storage of nuclear materials.

The readiness of the USA and NATO nuclear deterrence system to perform its tasks is tested during relevant exercises, as well as during test launches of land-, sea- and air-based missiles.

The main ones are tactical nuclear exercises such as “Steadfast Noon” and the strategic exercises “Global Thunder”, which take place annually on a single operational background with the participation of all components of the US nuclear forces and their NATO allies.

The exercises are intended to confirm and enhance the readiness of the US and NATO nuclear deterrence system for combat use in case of a conventional war escalating into a limited or full-scale nuclear war or a sudden enemy attack.

For example, the “Steadfast Noon” exercises involve the use of US and selected NATO countries’ tactical aviation for nuclear strikes during a limited nuclear war in the European theater of operations. At this, the conditional use of US tactical nuclear bombs stored in Europe and tactical nuclear munitions from France and the UK is being worked out.

In turn, the “Global Thunder” exercise addresses issues related to the use of US and NATO strategic nuclear forces (SNF) in the context of a full-scale nuclear missile war. All components of the US Armed Forces’ strategic nuclear forces and their support units, including intelligence, command, communications, and logistics, are involved in the exercises. In addition, the headquarters and units of the French and British nuclear missile forces are participating.

The US, French, and UK strategic nuclear forces are being placed on high alert, their components are being tested in conditions of a threatened enemy nuclear attack, conditional nuclear strikes are being carried out in response, and all types of support for the missile and nuclear forces are being organized.

Depending on the circumstances, several real launches of land- and sea-based ICBMs are carried out annually. In particular, in May this year, the US Armed Forces conducted a test launch of a land-based Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile. The missile was launched from the US Space Force base at Vandenberg in California and flew 6,700 km. In accordance with US President Donald Trump’s order to resume nuclear testing, another such launch is planned in the near future.

Thus, Russia and the USA are raising the stakes in their confrontation, bringing it to a qualitatively new nuclear level. The result is an increase in challenges to strategic stability in the world and the threat of a nuclear conflict between Russia and the USA, with Europe’s involvement.

Currently, Russia and China, on the one hand, and the USA, France, and the UK, on the other, have roughly equal nuclear capabilities, which ensures a balance of power between the parties. At the same time, Moscow and Beijing are trying to shift the balance in their favor by increasing their nuclear capabilities.

In this situation, the USA, France and the UK are taking measures to strengthen the nuclear deterrence system of their opponents. They consider these measures to be part of a united anti-Western front. This mainly concerns the modernization of nuclear weapon delivery systems without increasing their number.

All this is leading to a new nuclear arms race, which requires significant financial expenditures from all parties. At this, while the USA and China will be able to withstand the additional burden on their state budgets, this will become a significant problem for Russia, reducing its ability to continue the war against Ukraine.

The intensification of nuclear threats to the USA and Europe from Russia, China, and North Korea is an additional factor in the consolidation of Western countries in their confrontation with their adversaries. At the same time, their determination and toughness in responding to nuclear blackmail from the Kremlin is increasing.

Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute for Global Politics