D. Trump’s Peace Plan
The Real Goals and Interests of the Negotiators
Since November, there has been active discussion of the provisions of the so-called D. Trump’s peace plan, which was initiated by Russia and the USA with the aim of realizing their interests;
The current stage of negotiations is more substantive than the previous ones and involves discussion of specific issues. At the same time, Russia continues to use the negotiation process to force Ukraine to capitulate;
The USA is playing along with Russia in a certain way, as it is interested in ending the war as soon as possible and obtaining preferences from the resumption of cooperation with Russia. At the same time, Europe is on Ukraine’s side, trying to get the USA to pay more attention to Ukrainian interests;
The true meaning of the negotiations is distorted by various forces in their information campaigns, as well as by the mass media, which are trying to boost their ratings with sensational stories. However, the goals and interests of the participants in the negotiation process are quite clear in nature.
To date, the key aspect in the development of the situation around Russia’s war against Ukraine is the intensification of the negotiation process to restore peace. Thus, mutually acceptable compromises are being sought on the basis of the provisions of Donald Trump’s so-called peace plan, which is being refined in accordance with the interests of the parties concerned.
As in other similar cases, the negotiations are accompanied by all sorts of speculations, both organized and spontaneous in nature. The former are organized by individual negotiators as part of their information campaigns to support their negotiating positions and influence their opponents. The latter are the result of the activities of the mass media, experts, and politicians. All of them seek to increase their ratings by artificially creating sensational stories and scandals, including those based on fabricated or distorted facts.
All this makes it impossible to understand correctly what is happening and completely distorts it. In particular, it creates a lasting impression that President Trump has sided with Russia and betrayed Ukraine. As a result, socio-political tensions in Ukraine are intensifying, as the issues raised during the negotiations are extremely sensitive for most Ukrainians. This is exactly what Russia is trying to achieve by imposing its version of ending the war on Ukraine. Unfortunately, the USA is currently interested in destabilizing the situation in Ukraine. It is also insisting that Ukraine agree to peace terms that are unfavorable to it. However, in reality, the goals and attitudes of the USA to both Russia and Ukraine remain unchanged.
Therefore, we must try to set priorities and separate truth from assumptions, misjudgments, and outright misinformation. First of all, to this end, it is necessary to determine the goals, interests, and capabilities of Ukraine, Russia, the USA and Europe, which are the main participants in the negotiations. In principle, they are quite obvious if we move away from the biased assessments and stereotypes that have developed recently.
Everything is clear with Ukraine. In the current situation, its main goal is to end the war as quickly as possible on terms that preserve its sovereignty, inviolability of its rights to European and Euro-Atlantic integration, receipt of reliable security guarantees, prevention of further territorial losses, and, moreover, without fighting and without interference in the country’s internal affairs.
Ukraine has all the opportunities to achieve its goals and has already proven this in practice. Thus, countering Russia’s aggression has become a powerful factor in uniting Ukrainian society, which is acting as a united front in the war. No losses will affect this situation. Of course, there is war fatigue. There are those who continue to support Russia. And there are those who simply do not care, who are trying, so to speak, to wait out the war. But they are in the minority.
Ukraine’s Defense Forces are the most powerful in Europe and are capable of resisting Russia, as evidenced by the Russians’ lack of tangible success on the front lines. The Russian Armed Forces are still advancing, but they can no longer achieve any of their goals. Moreover, Ukraine is now considered part of the European and Euro-Atlantic security system and one of the main forces deterring Russia from attacking Europe. This role guarantees Ukraine the support of Europe and the USA, which are involved in strengthening our state and defending it. Ukraine’s Western partners do not always have firm and consistent positions, but they never abandon Ukraine, because their security depends on it.
Relying on its own strength and the support of its partners, Ukraine pursues a consistent policy of defending its interests in negotiations. At the same time, Ukraine is ready to make appropriate compromises, but without violating its national interests and legislation. According to a statement by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the country’s territory can only be changed on the basis of a nationwide referendum, as provided for in our country’s Constitution. At the same time, he agreed to hold elections, but only if at least a temporary truce is anounced. Ukraine may also temporarily renounce NATO if it receives truly reliable security guarantees from its partners.
The situation with Russia is more complicated. Russian dictator Putin’s goal remains unchanged and involves the destruction of Ukraine as an independent state. According to his thinking, this was to be the first step on the path to Russia’s revival as a great world power. In addition, the existence of an independent, European, and democratic Ukraine is a challenge to totalitarian, imperial, and Asian Russia.
At the same time, Ukraine’s resistance prevents Putin from achieving his goals. At this, the war is depleting Russia’s resources, causing critical damage to its economy, and undermining its international position. As a result of the falling world oil prices, Western sanctions, and excessive military spending, Russia’s economy is on the verge of a deep crisis that threatens its very existence.
This fact is already recognized even at the government level in the RF. According to estimates by the Russian Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, which is close to the Russian government, a banking and financial crisis in the country could occur as early as mid-2026.
Russia cannot count on external assistance, as it has no reliable partners. China is only profiting from Russia’s problems related to the breakdown of trade and economic relations with Europe. It does not lend money to Russia or invest in its economy. Besides, under the threat of American and European sanctions, China has begun to reduce trade with Russia, including imports of Russian oil. The same is true of relations with India.
In fact, Moscow’s allies remain North Korea and Iran. But even they are reducing military-technical cooperation with Russia because it lacks the funds to pay for their supplies. This also reduces Russia’s ability to continue the war and forces the country’s leadership to demonstrate its readiness to end it in order to avoid new sanctions that would accelerate the crisis processes in the Russian economy. However, Putin still hopes that he will be able to pressure Ukraine into capitulation.
The Kremlin is counting on US President Donald Trump, his seemingly pro-Russian stance, and his desire not only to help resolve the Ukrainian issue, but also to divide the world with Russia. Such hopes are irrational, but they form the basis of Putin’s policy. And in order to secure the USA on its side, Russia is offering it broad access to its natural resources, including oil, gas, and rare earth elements.
As part of this approach, the Kremlin used its connections with Trump’s inner circle, in particular with his envoy Stephen Witkoff, and presented him with its peace plan with Russian conditions for ending the war, but presented as an American-Russian one. The main conditions are the transfer of the entire the Donbas region to Russia, preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, and limiting the size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Donbas is of particular importance to Putin, as control over it would allow him to somehow justify the war against Ukraine.
At the same time, Russia has intensified its offensive actions on the front lines in order to put pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners and to capture as much Ukrainian territory as possible. An information campaign has also been launched to demonstrate the “”successes” of Russian troops in order to convince Ukraine, the USA, and Europe of the need to agree to Russia’s terms, as failure to do so would result in Russia’s tougher actions.
However, Russia’s real goal is not lasting peace, but only a pause in the war to rest and rebuild its forces and accumulate them for a new attack on Ukraine and, possibly, Europe. In other words, Moscow is trying to replicate the situation of the Minsk agreements of 2014 and 2015, when Ukraine’s failures on the front lines and the indecision of its partners allowed Russia to impose unfavorable peace terms on Kyiv. This is what enabled Moscow to launch a full-scale war against Ukraine in 2022.
Now the situation is different. Russia does not have sufficient forces to implement its plans for Ukraine militarily and expects Donald Trump to force it to make concessions. Therefore, Moscow is trying to prevent Europe from participating in US-Russian negotiations on Ukraine, as Europeans support our country. Moscow presents the negotiations between the USA and Russia as a “dialogue between two great countries, in which there is no place for anybody else”.
The situation with the USA is increasingly complex and ambiguous. The reason for this is the personal qualities of US President Donald Trump. He is pursuing a chaotic course, albeit with fairly specific goals.
Trum’s “America First” concept puts the USA’s interests first. At this, he declares his intention to defend them vigorously and to make efforts to preserve the existing balance of power in the world. That is, between the USA and China, Europe and Russia, which is not equal to them in terms of economy, but has a powerful nuclear potential.
The new US National Security Strategy, which is based on this concept, does not define Russia as America’s adversary as it did before. At the same time, the actual policy of the USA towards Russia has become more destructive than under any other American President since Ronald Reagan.
Trump’s main goal is to radically weaken Russia, which will in any case remain a military adversary of the USA, even if US-Russian relations are further relaxed, and the RF is removed from the global energy market as a competitor to America.
To this end, immediately after returning to power in January 2025, D. Trump began measures to lower global oil prices. In the summer, he forced the EU to accelerate the process of giving up Russian oil. And in November, he imposed sanctions on “Rosneft” and “Lukoil”, which enabled him to take action to oust Russia from the Chinese and Indian markets.
These steps have caused Russia more damage than all Western sanctions since 2014 taken together. In particular, since the beginning of the year, the Russian oil industry’s revenues have dropped by 25 %. Russian budget revenues have declined similarly, as they are mainly based on oil exports.
In contrast, the new US strategy demonstrates Trump’s positive attitude to Ukraine. According to the document, Ukraine’s sovereignty and viability are of utmost importance to America. This is quite understandable, as such a Ukraine is a guarantee that Russia will not be restored as a great power that could truly become America’s geopolitical rival and a much greater source of threats to its security. Therefore, the US continues to provide assistance to Ukraine, albeit in a slightly different form.
At the same time, Trump is using Ukraine as another tool to wear down Russia. On the one hand, he continues to supply weapons to Ukraine through NATO and encourages it to strike Russia’s oil infrastructure. On the other hand, he is pushing Moscow to continue the war by demonstrating a seemingly positive attitude to it.
Added to this are a number of factors related to Trump’s own interests. In particular, his desire to boost his electoral rating ahead of the 2026 midterm elections to the US Congress, as well as to profit from the war and the problems of Ukraine and Russia.
Trump’s current intention is to end the war through his active mediation. In this way, he would strengthen his authority in the USA and the world. Another positive outcome for him would be receiving the Nobel Peace Prize. As for his use of the war as a means of exhausting Russia, this issue has now lost its significance. According to most estimates, Russia is already in such a state that the cessation of hostilities will not save its economy. However, the USA is most likely not interested in Russia’s collapse, as this would create many new problems, including control over its nuclear weapons.
At this, among the conditions for ending the war, Trump is clearly concerned only with preserving Ukraine’s independence, the possibility of deepening European integration, and military potential, which should ensure its ability to continue to deter Russia. Trump is not concerned about the possibility of Ukraine losing the rest of the Donbas, as he considers this less important than restoring peace.
That is why D. Trump accepted the plan proposed to him by Russia, even though it contradicts his previous position on the need to stop fighting along the front line. Overall, the plan allows D. Trump to achieve his goals without Ukraine’s open surrender. In such a case, surrender would cause a significant negative reaction in the USA and harm his authority. However, D. Trump shows that he agrees to make changes to the plan to reconcile the interests of all parties. And to increase Ukraine and Russia’s interest in reaching a compromise as soon as possible, Trump is offering them various preferences.
For Ukraine, this means the USA’s support for its accession to the EU as early as 2027. Besides, D. Trump offers Ukraine security guarantees similar to Article 5 of the NATO Treaty on collective defense. For Russia, the preferences are the lifting of sanctions, the implementation of joint economic projects, and its reintegration into the global economy. However, all such proposals are rather populist in nature, as they cannot be implemented in practice.
The EU leadership has already stated that accelerated membership of Ukraine in the Organization is unrealistic, although it has stepped up its efforts in this direction. It is also unclear how Article 5 of the NATO Treaty would work for Ukraine without its membership in the North Atlantic Alliance.
The USA is, of course, interested in access to Russian resources. However, the development of many of their deposits, especially in the Arctic, is not economically viable. In addition, American companies are unlikely to return to Russia, as it has permanently lost its reputation as a reliable partner. And the reintegration of the Russian Federation into the global economy cannot be achieved without its oil exports, while the USA is depriving it of this opportunity. Most of the sanctions against Russia also concern its oil exports. Therefore, their cancellation would not have a significant positive effect on Russia.
- Trump is annoyed by the protracted negotiations, for which he blames Ukraine and Russia. At this, the US President is often unaware of what is happening. However, he has no effective leverage over Ukraine and no additional pressure on Russia.
- Trump cannot stop supplying weapons to Ukraine. Contracts with NATO for their production under the PURL program have been signed and paid for. Terminating them would have extremely negative political and economic consequences for the USA. This was evidenced by the USA’s suspension of arms supplies to Ukraine in the spring of 2025, which damaged America’s reputation in the world. Besides, such a move by D. Trump would be viewed negatively in the USA itself.
New sanctions against Russia and its partners can be imposed by the USA, and Congress is preparing them. But America is already putting pressure on China and India to stop importing Russian oil. This is already having an impact.
Europe has clear goals to prevent Russia’s possible attack on it after the war against Ukraine ends. In the view of European politicians, such a threat will become very real if Moscow defeats Ukraine. With this in mind, Europe, represented by the EU and the European component of NATO, supports Ukraine as one of the main forces in deterring Russia’s military expansion.
Europe’s measures in these areas are as follows: allocating funds for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine in the USA, producing them on its own, and providing assistance in the development of Ukraine’s defense industry; promoting Ukraine’s European and Euro-Atlantic integration; and increasing sanctions pressure on Russia. At the same time, Europe is taking steps to include Ukraine in the European security system and is demonstrating its intention to participate in its post-war reconstruction and security. A number of European countries are ready to deploy their military contingents on Ukrainian territory.
EU leaders and leaders of major European countries are currently trying to persuade Donald Trump of the need to take Ukraine’s interests into account when determining the terms of a peace plan and the inadmissibility of agreeing to Russia’s demands. In line with this approach, consultations are being held with Ukraine, after which the agreed proposals are discussed with US representatives. The main principle of the EU is “nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine”
Europe’s interest in Ukraine outweighs its negative attitude to certain problems that exist in our country. In particular, the corruption scandal did not change Europe’s attitude to Ukraine, as Russia had hoped. The EU has only called on Ukraine to intensify the fight against corruption and has tightened control over the funds allocated from its funds.
Most European countries remain united in their support for Ukraine in the peace talks, which creates positive conditions for Europe to implement its policy towards our country. Hungary and Slovakia remain exceptions. They are trying to defend Russia’s interests in the peace process. At the same time, they appeal to Donald Trump, who, in their view, holds the same position. However, the European Union leadership is finding ways to resolve this problem.
Active negotiations on the terms of the peace plan are currently underway with the participation of all interested parties. As mentioned above, they are proceeding according to a scheme whereby they are first agreed between Ukraine and Europe, then between Ukraine, Europe, and the USA, and finally between the USA and Russia. Ultimately, a peace agreement must be concluded between Ukraine and Russia with the mediation of the USA. Europe has been effectively excluded from the USA-Russia negotiations on the peace plan, which has provoked a negative reaction on its part.
As part of this process, several versions of the peace plan and its provisions have emerged, further complicating the situation around it. In addition, the USA and Russia are concealing the content of their negotiations from both Europe and Ukraine. Therefore, it is very difficult to understand them.
However, one way or another, Russia’s demands for the transfer of the entire Donbas territory remain the main problem. As already mentioned, the Ukrainian leadership refuses to do so, although it allows for this possibility following a referendum. But in the context of war, it is virtually impossible to organize and conduct such a referendum.
The issue of providing security guarantees to Ukraine is also complicated, as Russia is categorically against the possible deployment of Western military contingents on Ukrainian territory. Without this or Ukraine’s accession to NATO, all other guarantees cannot be reliable.
From the point of view of many Western politicians, the coming days will be decisive for the adoption of a peace plan and the end of the war. It is hard to say whether this is really the case. In any case, Moscow will drag out the negotiations and continue the war in order to force Ukraine to capitulate. Only the collapse of its economy or the real threat of this happening in the near future will stop Russia.
Thus:
Despite the apparent chaos surrounding the negotiations to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, the participants have clear interests and are firmly defending them. It is not easy to understand what is really happening with the negotiation process due to disinformation campaigns by certain forces that have their own interests, as well as the inconsistent policies of US President Donald Trump;
Europe is acting on Ukraine’s side in the negotiations, as it is interested in our country as one of the main forces in containing Russia. For the same reason, the USA also supports Ukraine, but D. Trump’s personal goals have a significant impact on Washington’s policy. He is currently trying to end the war as quickly as possible and is therefore indulging Russia in a certain way;
However, this cannot be considered D. Trump’s shift to Russia’s side or a betrayal of Ukraine. His actions are situational in nature, although they contradict the interests of our state. D. Trump’s goals remain unchanged and involve the maximum weakening of Russia as a military adversary of the USA and its removal from the global energy market as an American competitor. At this stage, he no longer needs the war as a mechanism for implementing these plans;
However, Moscow will continue to drag out negotiations and try to force Ukraine to capitulate by military means. Only a critical deterioration in its economic situation will push Russia to make concessions. In this regard, time, as they say, is on Ukraine’s side.
Yurii Mykhailenko,
Institute for Global Politics
(Image generated by neural network)
