On April 12 this year, Hungary is set to hold its next parliamentary elections
Two main political forces are expected to compete for power: Viktor Orbán’s pro-Russian party and Péter Magyar’s pro-Western one.
Orbán is unlikely to retain power, as he has taken an openly anti-European stance and supports Russian President Vladimir Putin’s aggressive foreign policy. It is unlikely that many Hungarians today share their Prime Minister’s policy, as they still remember well the role played by Soviet Russia during the events of 1956, when Soviet troops, together with the communist regime of Hungary, drowned the Hungarian uprising in blood.
Since then, virtually nothing has changed, and Russia continues to pursue an aggressive foreign policy against all its neighbors, as clearly demonstrated by Russia’s full-scale armed invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Today, it has become clear to everyone that the expansionist policy of the Russian Federation is directed not only at Ukraine, but also at all European countries and, first of all, at the former satellites of the Soviet Union, including Hungary. It is obvious that if Ukraine loses the current Russian-Ukrainian war, the next victims of Russia’s aggression will be the countries of Eastern Europe, including Hungary. Therefore, it is unlikely that the majority of Hungarians will want to voluntarily return to the Russian sphere of influence, where they would once again have to live in concentration camp conditions. It is precisely this clear awareness of such a prospect that significantly reduces Viktor Orbán’s chances in the current parliamentary elections and gives his opponent the upper hand. Most likely, provided that the elections are open and fair, Péter Magyar’s party will win the elections this time and come to power.
Of course, Viktor Orbán will make every effort to retain power, and his main support will be the military-political and significant material, technical, and financial base of Putin’s Russia.
On the other hand, the results of the parliamentary elections will be significantly influenced by the situation in Ukraine and the position of the leaders of the leading EU countries. Of course, both Ukraine and the vast majority of European countries are not interested in keeping Viktor Orbán’s political force in power in Hungary, as he openly sides with Russia, which strengthens Péter Magyar’s position and increases his chances of winning the election and becoming the next Prime Minister of Hungary.
Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute for Global Politics
