Trump Is Changing the World
At the beginning of 2026, a series of high-profile events took place: the USA set out to change the government in Venezuela, support mass protests against the country’s authorities in Iran, and speed up negotiations to end the Russian-Ukrainian war.
Thus, US President Donald Trump began implementing his strategic concept of “America First” based on the conditions he had created in 2025. Despite all the difficulties, Donald Trump is demonstrating his willingness to stick to his course.
In Donald Trump’s activities, his steps towards restoring peace are important for Ukraine. They do not always coincide with Ukraine’s interests, but they constantly force Russia to negotiate.
The Institute for Global Politics’ summary of the military-political situation in the world in 2025 discussed main directions of US President Donald Trump’s activities to implement his strategic concept of “America First”. Now is a good time to think about what the USA will do next. To do this, we should look at what has already been achieved as a starting point for determining their next steps. These achievements are quite significant and indicative, fully consistent with Trump’s geopolitical goals of achieving global American dominance in the world.
Firstly, by lowering world oil prices and imposing new sanctions, D. Trump undermined Russia’s economy, as a result of which it lost the opportunity to revive itself as a major world power and to strongly oppose the USA on the international stage. Moreover, Russia is now facing the threat of collapse, and its future effectively depends on the USA. In this situation, Putin has begun to fear D. Trump, although he is still trying to achieve his goals with regard to Ukraine, hoping for D. Trump’s support in resolving this issue. In exchange for Ukraine, he may not only concede his interests in the world to the USA, but also give them Russia’s main assets in the form of its natural resources.
Secondly, the USA has demonstrated to China that it is prepared to take decisive and tough action in response to any attempts by China to pose a direct threat to US strategic interests. Washington’s main instrument of influence and pressure on Beijing has been its tariff policy, namely threats to raise tariffs on Chinese goods if the PRC attempts to defy the USA. In particular, this concerned the PRC’s purchase of Russian oil. As part of this approach, D. Trump exploited China’s greater dependence on high-tech goods manufactured in the USA than the USA’s dependence on Chinese consumer goods. Of course, China has not stopped opposing the hegemonic policy of the USA, but it is doing so without direct confrontation in this matter.
Thirdly, America has demonstrated its ability to impose its will on Europe on issues of fundamental importance. By directly threatening with the USA’s possible withdrawal from NATO, Donald Trump forced Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security, including increasing defense spending by European countries. Besides, D. Trump’s tariff policy prompted the EU to give up Russian energy carriers and pay increased duties to America for its goods. Ultimately, increased military spending and Europe’s switching to American hydrocarbons contributed to strengthening its security. But the USA achieved its goals.
Fourthly, the USA has made most other countries begin to respect and fear it. Now, with the exception of a few outliers that are oriented toward China and, to some extent, Russia, no one opposes America. However, this does not mean that everyone obeys the USA. Leading European countries and Ukraine defend their interests but avoid quarrels with America.
Fifthly, D. Trump’s policy has finally destroyed the entire system of international collective security in the world, which Russia had already begun to destroy. Currently, no international organization can influence America. This has been observed before, but at least then the USA heard them.
All this has enabled D. Trump to lay the groundwork for taking his political course of ensuring America’s global dominance to a whole new level. He began to directly implement these plans, including the use of his tried and tested methods of tariff wars and military force. In this regard, his main focus is on destroying the so-called “axis of evil”, which consists of China, Russia, South Korea, Iran, Venezuela, and some other countries. According to his calculations, resolving this problem will allow him to reduce China’s capabilities in geopolitical competition with America. He is also trying to completely eliminate Russia as the main military adversary of the USA and competitor in the global energy market, as well as to extend his influence over it and gain access to Russian natural resources.
Control over the Western Hemisphere is of great importance to D. Trump, which he considers a key condition for achieving America’s dominance in the world. First and foremost, this means preventing Russia and China from entering the region and eliminating anti-American regimes. D. Trump’s priority areas of focus also include the Asia-Pacific region, Europe, the Arctic, and the Middle East.
The US President is also trying to eliminate threats to America from problematic countries that are part of the “axis of evil”. First and foremost among these are North Korea and Iran, which possess or are developing nuclear weapons and means of delivering them, and are supporting international terrorism.
The energy factor plays an important role in D. Trump’s plans. As Russia once did, he uses it as a tool of his foreign policy. Therefore, he is trying to create favorable conditions for American companies to develop the most promising oil and gas deposits. At this, D. Trump hopes that hydrocarbons, despite the spread of renewable energy, will continue to dominate the world’s energy balance.
In line with this approach, in early January this year, the USA carried out an operation to capture and deliver to America Venezuelan President Maduro, who is accused of establishing drug production and smuggling. A strict naval blockade of Venezuela also began, including the detention of Russian “shadow fleet” tankers even when they were sailing under Russian flags. In this way, D. Trump achieved several important goals. The most significant of these was taking control of Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are considered the largest in the world. Plus, he confirmed his determination and readiness to implement his plans with the involvement of special services and armed forces. Against this background, the USA demonstrated its disregard for Russia and, in fact, for China, which have their own interests in Venezuela, for which they have invested significant financial resources. Neither Moscow nor Beijing really defended them. And the reaction of the United Nations was purely formal. This is exactly what D. Trump was counting on after completing the aforementioned “preparatory work”.
Iran was to be next after Venezuela, where mass protests against the ruling regime led by Ayatollah Khamenei began in December last year. As is well known, D. Trump publicly supported the protesters, calling on them to take active steps to overthrow the government. He even promised to provide them with assistance and threatened to use military force against the Iranian leadership if it began mass killings of its internal opponents.
Trump’s actions were perceived by the world as the USA preparing to overthrow the current Iranian government and bring its puppets to power in order to take control of Iranian oil and weaken the influence of Russia and China in the Middle East. However, this did not happen. D. Trump rejected plans for military actions in Iran, explaining that Khamenei’s regime had given up the execution of imprisoned rebels. As a result, the authorities were able to suppress the protests.
Most likely, American intelligence assured Donald Trump that it would be impossible to implement such plans in a short time frame and with limited forces. Therefore, unlike in Venezuela, a military operation in Iran could very likely drag on indefinitely and have unpredictable consequences. Therefore, it was postponed until later in order to prepare more thoroughly for the relevant actions. According to some estimates, the USA may return to this issue as early as this autumn.
Changing the government in Iran proved to be too difficult a task. Therefore, D. Trump switched his attention to Greenland, which he had been eyeing since the beginning of his second presidential term. This is also important for the USA in terms of strengthening its position in the Arctic and gaining access to oil reserves on the Arctic shelf.
Since Greenland is subordinate to Denmark, which is a member of NATO, i.e., an ally of the USA, D. Trump decided not to use force against it, although he hinted at such an option. He took a different path, namely, he began to assure NATO allies that Greenland could likely be captured by Russia and China. Therefore, the United States of America should protect it and take it under its protectorate.
Such explanations were given, so to speak, in D. Trump’s style and were irrational in nature. Russia and China are indeed sending their warships to the Arctic. However, their voyages in this direction are sporadic and rather modest. Even if they landed their troops in Greenland, it would be practically impossible to ensure their permanent presence there. Therefore, leading European countries did not support Trump’s claim to Greenland. Moreover, they sent their military units to the island to conduct exercises there as a demonstration of solidarity with Denmark.
This caused tension within NATO, which could have escalated into an armed conflict between Alliance members. However, D. Trump would not have dared to do so. Besides, the US Congress prohibited him from using military force to seize Greenland and Venezuela. Therefore, D. Trump had to change his tactics. He hastened to announce tariff increases for countries that would interfere with his plans for Greenland. On the other hand, he offered Denmark $800 billion for Greenland.
In other words, the Greenland issue remains relevant. Although it will be resolved in some way. Given how D. Trump tries to conduct business, he is most likely just raising the stakes here to create more favorable conditions for strengthening the American military presence in Greenland and for oil production on the Arctic shelf.
With these actions, D. Trump is not only diverting attention from Russia and its war against Ukraine. By and large, this is part of his policy to pursue his own and his country’s interests in these matters. This gives him additional opportunities to weaken Russia and exert influence on it, including in the peace process.
For example, America’s takeover of Venezuelan oil production is already making it possible to further lower oil prices and reduce Russian budget revenues in the future. This deepens the crisis in the Russian economy, weakens its ability to continue the war, and will ultimately force it to make concessions.
In the future, the USA will also be able to use Iran and Greenland in a similar way. But even without them, the USA has instruments of pressure on Russia that allow it to push forward the negotiation process to end the war. It is not at all at an impasse, as many experts argue.
The process of coordinating the positions of Ukraine, Europe, and the USA on the provisions of the peace plan is now coming to an end. In the near future, representatives of Donald Trump are expected to visit Moscow to discuss this plan with Putin. However, coordination of the plan with Russia is already underway. If Russia rejects it, the USA will impose new powerful sanctions against it that will destroy the Russian economy. Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that serious negotiations on ending the war will begin as early as February this year.
Trump, realizing these prospects, is trying to start the negotiation process as soon as possible. He needs this in order to embark on joint economic projects with Russia, which will bring certain benefits for him personally and for America.
All these issues are especially important for D. Trump in view of the upcoming US Congressional elections. To boost his electoral rating, he needs to demonstrate concrete, tangible results of his policies. Therefore, he will do everything in his power to achieve this. This explains D. Trump’s latest statements about Ukraine’s unwillingness to achieve peace, which are an attempt to put pressure on our country’s leadership.
At the same time, the “axis of evil” does not want to give up easily and is putting up resistance. However, most of its members do not dare to openly oppose the USA. China acts through Russia and Iran by providing them with direct or covert support, including in the military sphere. In particular, it buys oil from them and sells them dual-use products, thereby increasing their ability to resist America. In a way, this restrains the USA and prevents it from stopping this process completely. This was demonstrated by the situation around Venezuela, when China and Russia only condemned the actions of the USA and did not take any real steps to protect their interests in that country. Putin was generally shocked by this state of affairs and did not appear in public for more than two weeks.
As for Moscow, it is still trying to achieve its goals in Ukraine. It cannot achieve decisive success on the front lines. Therefore, during the cold spell, Russia intensified its terrorist attacks on Ukraine’s energy sector, causing significant damage. Putin’s regime tried in this way to undermine the morale of the Ukrainian population and leadership and force them to surrender. But it failed to achieve its desired outcome. And due to the crisis processes in the Russian economy, which accelerated in January 2026 without any additional sanctions, Russia is losing its last chances to defeat Ukraine.
Nevertheless, Russia still has resources to intensify its “hybrid” war against Europe in order to reduce its ability to support Ukraine. These will include: intensified sabotage against NATO defense enterprises and military facilities and the armed forces of European countries; cyber attacks on the computer networks of energy, transport, banking, military, and other critical infrastructure; provocations involving the use of UAVs, combat aircraft, and ships; influencing elections and supporting Eurosceptic, pro-Russian, and anti-Ukrainian forces. Contradictions between the USA and Europe regarding the Arctic will also be exploited.
It cannot be ruled out that Moscow will attempt to provoke an armed conflict in one of the Baltic states, with subsequent intervention involving the covert or overt use of the Russian army. However, Russia lacks the forces for a large-scale attack on Europe, so it will not be able to reduce the latter’s ability to provide assistance to Ukraine.
As for the other members of the “axis of evil”, namely North Korea and Iran, they are currently on the defensive. Moreover, while North Korea can still hide behind China, a change of power in Iran is only a matter of time.
Thus, in 2025, US President Donald Trump created all the conditions for practical actions to implement his strategic concept of “America First”, including the use of armed force. He actually prevented other countries from interfering in his policies and finally destroyed the collective security system in the world.
Currently, Trump’s main efforts to achieve American dominance are focused on strengthening the USA’s position in regions of the world that are important to it and eliminating the so-called “axis of evil”. In 2026, the most resonant steps in this direction were America’s change of power in Venezuela and the start of active measures to establish control over Greenland. D. Trump is also trying to end the Russian-Ukrainian war as quickly as possible by putting further pressure on Russia and, unfortunately, on Ukraine. In doing so, he is relying on the consequences of his previous actions to undermine Russia’s economy and Ukraine’s continued dependence on American weapons. However, one way or another, D. Trump has managed to create conditions for restoring peace in the foreseeable future.
At the same time, the factors holding D. Trump back from achieving his goals are resistance from the “axis of evil” countries and the position of Europe, which has sided with Denmark in opposing the USA’s encroachment on Greenland. However, it is likely that D. Trump will, to one degree or another, be able to get his way and break the “axis of evil” and reach certain compromises with Denmark and Europe.
Yurii Ilchenko,
Institute for Global Politics
(Image generated by neural network)
