The Cost of Putin’s Political Mistakes for Russia. Losing Chances to Achieve Victory over Ukraine and Approaching Collapse
The situation regarding Russia’s war against Ukraine shows that Moscow is gradually losing control over it;
The reason for this is Russian President Putin’s inability to objectively assess what is happening and make adequate decisions;
As a result, the Russians are unable to defeat Ukraine, which is bringing the Russian Federation closer to collapse.
According to some Ukrainian and Western experts, Russia’s war against Ukraine is approaching a turning point. Analysts at the US Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that the aggressor’s armed forces are beginning to lose their offensive potential, as evidenced by the slowdown in their advance on the front lines. In contrast, in the second half of February this year, the Ukrainian Defense Forces switched from defense to counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia region.
The reason for this state of affairs is the significant deterioration of the economic situation in Russia, which is weakening its ability to wage war, in particular due to problems with weapons production. Besides, the number of people willing to voluntarily sign contracts to participate in the war is decreasing. As a result, the front-line losses of the Russian Armed Forces exceed their replenishment. In other words, the Russian military will soon experience a shortage of manpower.
Another problem for that army is that the USA is blocking its use of the American Starlink space communications system. This has reduced the effectiveness of Russian Armed Forces’ reconnaissance and command on the front lines by 20-40%, which has helped the Ukrainian Defense Forces achieve success, at least at the tactical level. This has recently been observed in the defense of the Pokrovsk-Mirnograd agglomeration and during the liberation of Ukrainian territories in Zaporizhzhia region.
All this means that Moscow’s hopes for achieving a powerful breakthrough on the front and forcing Ukraine to capitulate have failed. This was already evident last year when the economic situation in Russia began to deteriorate and the number of volunteers willing to take up arms began to decline significantly.
The Russian Armed Forces were able to capture only a few small towns in the Donbas, but this did not affect the strategic situation. Moreover, over the course of the year, Russia managed to occupy no more than 1% of Ukraine’s territory.
However, the Russian leadership did not draw appropriate conclusions and did not give up continuing the war against Ukraine. Moreover, it is not deterred by losses on the front lines or further deterioration of the Russian economy, which has begun to sink into a deep crisis. Russia is even intensifying its offensive actions on the front lines, trying to achieve its goals at any cost.
As part of these actions, Moscow, and in fact Putin himself, i.e., the dictator who rules the country single-handedly, hopes for Russia’s superiority over Ukraine and for the favor of US President Donald Trump. In Putin’s view, D. Trump is determined to divide the world with Russia and China, and is also interested in restoring US-Russian ties in all areas, including in view of his business interests, which could also force Ukraine to capitulate and return to Moscow’s sphere of influence.
Thanks to the Kremlin propaganda, this attitude to D. Trump and the USA is widely publicized in Russia, including within its armed forces. In particular, it was the basis for the completely wild decision to use the American Starlink in the interests of Russian troops on the front lines in Ukraine. Whatever D. Trump may be, the USA remains the foundation of NATO, which Moscow officially recognizes as its main adversary. However, everyone hoped that D. Trump’s pro-Russian positions would be outweighed by the USA’s commitment to transatlantic unity.
None of Putin’s expectations came true, nor could they have, as they were based on completely false assumptions about D. Trump. The Russian leadership believed D. Trump’s campaign rhetoric without critically rethinking it. This is not surprising, given that it was in line with their wishes. Moreover, after D. Trump’s first steps as President, it seemed that he was indeed moving in the direction he had proclaimed before the presidential election. This is typical of D. Trump, as everyone knows, but it is worth repeating.
Having taken office as US President, he confirmed his positive attitude to Putin and Russia and refused to publicly condemn their war against Ukraine. He also expressed interest in restoring cooperation between the USA and Russia. At the same time, he began to pressure Ukraine, imposing on it Russia’s version of ending the war and unfavorable terms for joint extraction of minerals on Ukrainian territory. And when Ukraine refused, he suspended the supply of weapons and intelligence information to it. Then the White House stopped allocating funds to support Ukraine altogether, with the exception of individual programs, and shifted the process of assisting our country to Europe.
Besides, D. Trump began demanding that Europe, represented by the EU and the European component of NATO, take greater responsibility for its own security. At this, he put intense pressure on Europe by raising tariffs on European goods and threatening to reduce the American military presence in the European theater of operations and, in general, to withdraw the USA from NATO. He also excluded Europe from negotiations on ending the Russian-Ukrainian war, even though this issue directly affected its security.
But D. Trump’s actions only reflected his foreign policy. In reality, its nature was completely different. At first, he really hoped that it would be possible to end the war quickly by using his positive relationship with Putin. Moreover, at that time, D. Trump apparently did not realize the true nature and goals of Russia’s war against Ukraine. He wanted to end it as quickly as possible, caring about his own prestige. And he did not allow Europe to participate in the negotiations not because he despised it, but because he did not want it to interfere with him.
After D. Trump saw what was really going on, he changed his course on both Russia and Ukraine. Currently, the US President is still playing games with Moscow, but he is also putting tough pressure on it by lowering global oil prices, depriving Russia of markets for its energy carriers, and imposing sanctions on leading Russian oil companies. His goal is not only to force Moscow to make peace, but also to radically weaken it as the main military opponent of the USA and a competitor in the global energy market. This goal completely rules out any possible agreement with Russia on the division of the world. On the contrary, the USA is actively undermining Russia’s positions in countries and regions that are important to Russia. These include Syria, Venezuela, the Caucasus, Central Asia, and the Balkans.
The USA, together with Israel, is currently conducting a military operation against Iran, which is highly likely to lead to the fall of its current regime or a change in its course. Cuba may be next in line…
- Trump did not hand Ukraine over to Russia. He continues to put pressure on our country in certain aspects of the peace talks, but it has not reached a critical level. The supply of American weapons to Ukraine continues, although this is being done with European funds and through NATO.
The North Atlantic Alliance itself is not only not falling apart, as Moscow had hoped, but on the contrary, has become much stronger. The USA’s demands for Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security, as well as Russia’s aggressive foreign policy, have forced the EU to embark on a large-scale program of rearmament in Europe. Finland and Sweden have joined the Alliance, which has improved its potential and ensured its access to Russia’s northwestern borders.
In this situation, the actions of the USA and the EU to force Moscow to make peace by undermining the Russian economy have brought the RF to the brink of a deep crisis, which has already begun. Many economists believe that Russia may well repeat the fate of the former USSR.
It is impossible that the Russian leadership is unaware of these problems, which are already openly acknowledged at the ministerial level. Moreover, this is happening not only behind the scenes, but also in the public sphere.
In particular, in February this year, in an interview with the media, Minister of Foreign Affairs of the RF Lavrov acknowledged that D. Trump was departing from the so-called “Anchorage spirit”, namely, he was not demonstrating his desire to normalize relations with Russia, because he had begun to put pressure on it. He also directly identified the goal of the USA as the destruction of Russia.
In turn, during speeches at various events, Minister of Finance Siluanov and Minister of Economic Development of the RF Reshetnikov publicly agreed with the fact that their country’s economic problems were worsening. Other representatives of the Russian authorities agree with them and are no longer afraid to speak openly on this topic.
Even more acute and negative assessments of the situation in Russia and around it are given by independent experts and representatives of the Z-community, which brings together Russian chauvinists. They emphasize the failures of the Russian authorities’ policies in virtually all areas, including the failure of the so-called “special military operation” which is bringing the country closer to disaster. At this, Russia’s repressive authorities are no longer able to block such activities. What else can be said when the notorious terrorist I. Strelkov (Girkin), who was actively involved in Moscow’s provocation of the conflict in the Donbas, is writing anti-government blogs even from prison. As is well known, he ended up there for criticizing Putin.
However, none of this affects the self-confident Putin, who believes that he is capable of achieving his geopolitical goals of elevating Russia to the status of a great world power and dividing the world between the RF, the USA and China. He considers victory over Ukraine to be the key to this. That is why, rather than to capture the entire Donbas or Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, he is not ending the war against Ukraine and is delaying peace talks. Contrary to the obvious facts, he still hopes for Donald Trump’s favor to him and Russia. And in order to further make the US President interested in this, Putin, through his representatives, offers him economic benefits from the implementation of various well-known joint projects. These include the joint development of Russian oil and gas fields on the Arctic shelf and the extraction of rare earth materials, provision of preferential conditions for the return of American companies to the Russian market, the resumption of settlements in dollars, etc. At first glance, they may indeed be of interest to the USA. But D. Trump refuses to resume cooperation with Russia before the war ends. And he has no need for most of Russia’s proposals. Indeed, why invest in the development of Arctic deposits when America has free access to cheap Venezuelan oil and will eventually have access to Iranian oil as well?
Besides, the Russian dictator is confident in the success of the Russian army on the front lines and in the stability of the economic situation in the country. This is evidenced by his public statements. An example of this was his announcement that Russian troops had allegedly captured the city of Kupyansk and the village of Kupyansk-Vuzlovyi. He euphorically told journalists about the details of the operation.
At the same time, he assured that the decline in Russia’s GDP growth rate from 4.2% in 2024 to 1% in 2025 was the result of deliberate actions by the Russian government to “cool down” the economy in order to counter inflation, and not because of a crisis. However, even with such intentions, the planned GDP growth rate was supposed to be 2.5%.
And that’s not all. Based on such misconceptions, Putin stubbornly sticks to his policy, which inevitably leads to predictable failures. This is evidenced, for example, by Putin’s orders to capture the entire Donbas by certain, completely groundless dates. Right now, he seems to be demanding that this be done by the end of March this year.
It is clear to everyone that this will not be possible, since the current pace of Russian troops’ advance will allow this goal to be achieved no earlier than in two years. However, the Russian Armed Forces command does not contradict the president and continues to report on some “successes”, thereby further aggravating the situation.
At the same time, in February this year, he once again ordered the government and the Central Bank of the country to restore the high rates of development of Russia’s economy with indicators higher than the world average. In response, the government promised to decide by the end of this year only how the relevant plans would be developed. That is, it merely pretended to be ready to carry out Putin’s order, which is completely unrealistic. As we can see, in the economy, real work to eliminate existing problems is being replaced by imitation, which only complicates matters.
Some political analysts familiar with the situation inside the Kremlin explain why this is happening. They say that Putin only listens to those who say what he wants to hear. The most prominent among them are Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces Gerasimov, Presidential Economic Advisor Oreshkin, Assistant Medinsky, and Envoy Dmitriev. Ministers and heads of other departments who report problems are advised to resolve them on their own. Moreover, Medinsky and Dmitriev have effectively replaced the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in negotiations with the USA and Ukraine. Of course, Lavrov also follows Putin’s course, but he has started to tell the truth. That is why Putin has distanced himself from him.
Undoubtedly, Putin also receives reports on the situation in Russia and around it from the heads of Russian special services. However, they, too, most likely only report what he wants to hear. In a totalitarian country, it simply cannot be otherwise. This was observed in Ukraine during the rule of Viktor Yanukovych. According to representatives of Ukrainian special services, he was not told anything that he might not like. That is why he was not prepared for the Revolution of Dignity in Ukraine, which led to the overthrow of his regime. The parallels are obvious.
One cannot ignore the incompetence of Russian analytical bodies, which are part of both the special services and other agencies. Total corruption in Russia creates a negative selection effect in all spheres, including the expert community.
In other words, the Russian leadership’s inadequate decisions, even within the framework of its aggressive policy, which is flawed in itself, are systemic in nature. The entire history of Russia’s war against Ukraine since 2014 is evidence of this. At all stages, Moscow, exceeding its capabilities and underestimating Ukraine’s resilience, relied on false ideas and expectations, as well as inadequate assessments and forecasts.
Thus, the Kremlin’s hopes for the collapse of Ukraine, which it tried to initiate in 2014 as part of Operation “Russian Spring” after the Revolution of Dignity in our country, did not come true. Despite the post-revolutionary chaos in Ukraine, it still managed to stop the aggressor, although it lost Crimea and part of the Donbas.
Russia did not draw the right conclusions from this and in 2022 launched a new blitzkrieg, based on the false hope that Ukrainians would support its actions and that the Ukrainian Armed Forces would be unable to resist. They started and have been doing this for over four years, gradually losing the war.
As already mentioned, in 2025 Moscow believed Donald Trump’s promises and relied on his support in the war against Ukraine. And again, it failed. It will continue the war, but will be forced to stop it in the foreseeable future due to the collapse of the Russian economy.
Most politicians and experts agree that ending the war without Russia achieving any of its strategic goals will be tantamount to defeat. In turn, this will be a political collapse of Putin’s regime and will put the Russian Federation on the brink of disintegration. This is the price it will pay for Putin’s misguided decisions based on false perceptions of the situation and groundless expectations. The same applies to the inability of Russian security service leaders and government officials to convey the truth to him and get him to believe it.
Therefore, Russia’s main problem today is the inability of its authorities, and in fact Putin himself, to make adequate decisions in the political, economic, and military spheres.
This is a consequence of his failure to understand the real situation in and around the country, where he mistakes his desires for reality, and those around him not only fail to tell him the truth, but deliberately distort it.
No state can exist under such leadership. Therefore, Russia is not only losing its international position and internal stability, but is also losing the war with Ukraine. This may be considered its collapse.
Unfortunately, it will continue the war and do its best to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine and, in general, on the world.
Yurii Ilchenko,
Institute for Global Politics
