“Do Russians Not Let Their’s Down”?
Consequences of the Destruction of Russia’s Sphere of Influence
History knows many cases when Russia did not fulfill its promises to its partners. In critical situations, it tends to take care exclusively of itself, similar to totalitarian countries. This practice cannot help undermining trust in bilateral relations, so the victims begin to go over to the enemy’s side. This has already happened to Russia’s CSTO allies. As a result, its international positions are being undermined, and the system of geopolitical influence it has built (with which, by the way, it still seeks to encompass Ukraine militarily) is being destroyed. All of this not only calls into question the implementation of Russia’s strategic plans, according to which it is trying to reach the level of a great world power, but also threatens to disintegrate it, just as it once did with the USSR.
As expected, the Russian-Ukrainian war has provoked a number of new military clashes in different regions of the world, and having become a catalyst for existing armed conflicts. Most of them directly affect Russia’s allies and partners, who lost without receiving the promised assistance. It is worth considering these well-known events at least in a generalized way.
For example, in the autumn of 2023, Azerbaijan, as a result of its successful military operation, liberated Nagorno-Karabakh (NKR) from Armenian, but in fact Russian, occupation. As you know, Armenia is Russia’s ally within the framework of the Collective Security Treaty Organization. Therefore, the Russians were obliged to immediately provide military assistance to the Armenians. After all, Armenia and the NKR played the role of the main conductors of Russia’s interests in the Caucasus and were instruments of influence on Azerbaijan. However, this did not happen.
As always, the Kremlin justified its position by objective circumstances, namely that the Treaty provides for such assistance only in the event of external aggression against its parties. Formally, the self-proclaimed Nagorno-Karabakh Republic was not part of Armenia, but was only its ally. Therefore, there was no external aggression against Armenia. Later, Russian propagandists explained the refusal to provide assistance by saying that Yerevan had not allegedly asked for it, and therefore Russia had no reason to intervene militarily.
In reality, however, Türkiye played its role here, supporting Azerbaijan on the basis of a bilateral military cooperation agreement signed in 1992. Unlike Moscow, Ankara fulfilled its obligations and today also provides Azerbaijan with full military and military-technical support.
As for Russia, at that moment it did not have sufficient forces to intervene in the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. We all remember well how Ukraine launched a counteroffensive on the front in the autumn of 2023. Although it was not successful, it forced Russia to concentrate all its forces to repulse it. Of course, Russia’s assistance to Armenia was out of the question.
Another such was the fall of B. Assad’s regime in Syria in December 2024, when his opponents rose up there and put an end to the 50-year rule of the Assad “dynasty” in Syria, which was the main support of the former USSR and later Russia in the North African region. Even taking some direct part in the civil war in Syria on the side of B. Assad, the Russian Federation did not help him at the critical moment.
According to Moscow, the reason for this next betrayal of its partner was the lack of an appropriate legal framework between the two countries. But earlier this fact did not prevent Russia from launching massive strikes on the places of concentration of the Syrian opposition, including the use of long-range (strategic) aviation! Although, for the most part, civilian settlements were hit by bombs and missiles, as is happening now in Ukraine.
Later, as in the case of Armenia, Russian propaganda tried to persuade everybody that Syria had not asked Russia for help, and that the Syrians did not want to defend their country. However, Moscow again did not consider it appropriate to conflict with Türkiye, which stood behind B. Assad’s opponents. In addition, unlike European countries, Türkiye is not afraid of Russia, as it demonstrated back in 2015 when it shot down a Russian Su-24 that had entered Türkiye’s airspace.
The situation with Russia’s lack of forces was repeated, as it was conducting a large-scale offensive in Ukraine. In addition, the Black Sea straits were closed by Türkiye for the passage of Russian warships and cargo, which also complicated the logistics of Russian Armed Forces units in Syria.
Right now, something similar is happening in the Middle East in the form of an escalation of the armed confrontation between Israel and Iran, which is actually a war between them. Russia is once again evading its obligations to Iran under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement. And its reaction to the apparent destruction of its strategic partner is limited to condemning Israel’s actions and warning the United States against providing military support to Tel Aviv. And they defiantly ignore this, since Russia cannot do anything about it. The latter has repeatedly explained its position that it sees no reason to provide assistance to Iran, as the Treaty does not seem to provide for it. And Russian propaganda has even begun to claim that Russia owes Iran nothing for the “shaheds” it has been given, nor for the missiles and shells it pays for in full. But Iran, unlike North Korea, has not sent a single soldier to the front in Ukraine. I wonder what will happen when the DPRK comes under attack? And will Russia rush to fulfill its part of the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership Agreement with North Korea? Or will it again complain about the content of the Treaty, according to which “its not Russia’s circus, not its monkeys”? Not so long ago, these agreements between Russia and Iran and the DPRK were considered the basis of an axis of evil and a direct challenge to the West.
More about the axis of evil later, but now it is appropriate to recall two more facts about how Russia “lets down” or tries to “let down” its partners. Thus, at the end of 2024, when Ukraine refused to extend the contract for the transit of Russian gas through its territory, Russia provoked an energy crisis in the self-proclaimed Transnistrian Moldovan Republic, which put its population on the brink of survival.
Like other pseudo-republics on the territory of the former Soviet Union, the Transnistrian Moldovan Republic was created by Russia in the early 1990s and was used quite successfully as an instrument of pressure on Moldova. Nevertheless, after the final severance of gas relations with Ukraine, Russia refused to supply gas to the TMR free of charge (as it had been doing before) through the existing gas pipeline through Türkiye. Eventually, the problem was resolved by organizing gas supplies to Transnistria through Moldova, which buys it on the European market at the expense of the EU. It is hard to say why Russia needed this. But its partnership with the TMR, and thus the possibility of using the breakaway republic for its own purposes, was undermined.
But what to say about all of the above-mentioned countries and breakaway republics, if Russia, after D. Trump’s return to the White House, tried to “dump” even China in order to resume cooperation with the United States. And that — despite the fact that China, unlike all the others, is really strategically important for Russia in terms of ensuring that its economy can operate under Western sanctions. Nevertheless, Russian politicians, including those at the top, began to speak openly about the United States as a possible alternative to China. In favor of this idea, they argued that Washington was concerned about the possible conclusion of a military and political alliance between Russia and China. Therefore, the Russians’ rejection of such an alliance could force the United States to give in to Russia over Ukraine and in the redistribution of the world.
In response, Beijing harshly put Russia in its place with just one hint of the possibility of curtailing bilateral economic cooperation. And as a confirmation, it refused to buy Russian coal and reduced the volume of Russian oil imports. This hit Russia no less hard than Western sanctions.
Russia’s systematic betrayal of its partners is not surprising and is no longer the exception, but even the norm. This was pointed out by Chancellor Otto von Bismarck in the 1870s. His conclusions are confirmed by Russian politicians who say today that Russia should fulfill only those agreements that are beneficial to it at the moment. What else can be added when, in Putin’s own words during a meeting with entrepreneurs at the end of May, “only cowards pay their debts”. In this way, he confirmed that Russia is not ready to fulfill its obligations to anyone, including its partners. However, they have long since realized this and are beginning to move away from it.
Armenia was the first to do so when Russia refused to support it in its confrontation with Azerbaijan. Thus, in March of this year, Armenia suspended its participation in the CSTO and stopped paying contributions to the organization’s budget. And in April of this year, President of Armenia V. Khachaturyan signed a law on the beginning of the country’s accession to the European Union. Against the background of Yerevan’s drift away from Moscow, in July 2024, the United States and Armenia held joint military exercise Eagle Partner 2024, which was peacekeeping.
Syria’s new leadership has completely abandoned Russia. It could not be otherwise, as representatives of the Syrian opposition came to power in the country. Therefore, Russia is losing contact with it, as well as its military bases on Syrian territory and influence in the region. However, this has negative consequences for Ukraine, as Russian military units that were in Syria are being involved in military operations in our country.
As for the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, it has ceased to exist. Therefore, Russia has finally lost the ability to use it for its own purposes. Transnistrian Moldavian Republic is not yet openly rejecting Russia, but it is demonstrating its dissatisfaction with it.
Most likely, Russia’s friendship with Iran is also in question. This was demonstrated by the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Ambassador to Moscow K. Jalali. According to him, in his address to the Russian Federation, the Iranian people will never forget who helped them in these difficult times and who preferred inaction.
Other Iranian friends are also changing their positions on Russia, no longer relying on Russia’s support in case of need. In particular, in an interview with the French publication LCI, Prime Minister of Hungary V. Orban recognized weakness of Russia, which cannot defeat Ukraine.
President of Serbia A. Vučić went even further. On June 11, he made his first official visit to Ukraine since the beginning of the war. While in our country, he participated in the Ukraine-Southeast Europe Summit, where he took the initiative to involve Serbia in the reconstruction of several Ukrainian cities.
So far, this does not mean that they have completely abandoned Russia. Immediately after these actions, they began to “repent” and assure Russia that their positions remained unchanged. Nevertheless, they sent certain signals to Russia and the West.
Another illustrative example was US Special Envoy to Belarus K. Kellogg’s visit to Belarus to meet with A. Lukashenko. The aim of his visit was to discuss relations between the two countries. Whatever its consequences, the nature of the visit is revealing.
All such circumstances have the appearance of a “domino effect” and allow us to conclude that the entire architecture of Russia’s external influence, which it has been able to build to varying degrees, is being systemically destroyed. At present, Russia’s adversaries, from the United States and Europe to Türkiye and Israel, continue to push it away from its partners. This is aimed at weakening the Russian Federation, after which it will be eliminated as a center of aggressive totalitarianism and the same axis of evil. This is exactly how the collective West destroyed the Eastern Bloc in the 1980s. First, the Soviet Union was torn away from its satellites in Africa and the Middle East. Then came the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. And after them — the former Soviet republics. Now the same method is being applied to today’s Russia. Judging by what is happening, it is working.
P.S. I hate to make groundless assumptions. However, noteworthy is coincidence of Israel’s actions, with the actual support of the United States, to nuclear disarm and demilitarize of Iran, with Russia’s initiatives to hold a third round of negotiations with Ukraine in the near future. At the same time, Putin himself has begun to talk about possible compromises and his desire to speed up the negotiation process.
Of course, this can be attributed to attempts to assure D. Trump of Russia’s readiness for a constructive dialogue and to further delay the imposition of US sanctions on Russia. But it is also possible to assume that Moscow intends to exchange Ukraine for Iran. Namely, to agree to certain compromises on the conditions for suspending the war against Ukraine in exchange for the US and Israel’s agreement to abandon the change of the ruling regime in Iran. But we will see how events will develop further. Especially since the US air strike on the Iranian nuclear facility will again force Russia to react somehow. Or will it again seek to justify its “neutrality”?
Oleh Makhno
