Part 2
Part 1 — https://igp.org.ua/en/publikacii/nova-sistema-yevroatlantichnoї-i-yevropejskoї-bezpeki/
Ukraine’s Role and Place in the European and Euro-Atlantic Security System
Ukraine, which has the most powerful Armed Forces in Europe with experience and motivation for military action against Russia, is given an important place in the new European and Euro-Atlantic security system. Given this, the USA and Europe consider Ukraine to be one of the main forces in deterring Russia’s military expansion in Europe.
Currently, within the European theater of operations, Ukraine already serves as the front line on NATO’s southern flank in Central and Eastern Europe, Southeast Europe, and the Black Sea region. Thus, Ukraine effectively protects its neighboring NATO and EU countries from Russian ground invasion and air attacks.
This is already being taken into account in the strategic and operational plans of NATO and the USA. In particular, Ukraine’s protection of NATO’s southern flank allows the Alliance to redirect some of its forces to the northern flank, namely the Baltic and Arctic regions, where there is a real threat of direct military confrontation between the Alliance and Russia.
Western experts believe that if Russia defeats Ukraine or ends the war on the RF’s terms, the Russians will be able to rebuild their forces in a few years and attack the Baltic states, Poland, or Finland. This may be evidenced by Russia’s build-up of troops in the Leningrad Military District of the Russian Armed Forces, namely, a significant strengthening of the 6th Combined Arms Army and the deployment of a new army corps on its territory.
Provocations by Russia in the form of violations of NATO and EU maritime and air borders by its aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicles, and ships could serve as a pretext for armed incidents that could escalate into conflicts. The same threat is posed by Russia’s use of its Air Force and Navy to counter measures taken by the Baltic region countries to block its “shadow fleet”. An additional factor of military tension is Russia’s “hybrid wars” against its opponents, which include deliberate damage to underwater pipelines and communication lines, as well as the creation of obstacles to the operation of radio navigation systems.
The Ukrainian factor is also taken into account in NATO’s defense system in Poland and Lithuania. Thus, the main efforts of Poland’s Armed Forces, NATO’s Joint Forces Command, and the US 5th Army Corps are focused on the Suwałki (Poland) – Grodno (Belarus) corridor, known as the Suwałki Corridor, and Warsaw – Minsk, where the main strikes of the Russian Armed Forces are expected in case of war. The Krakow-Lviv direction is considered secondary, as it is covered by Ukraine. Therefore, only auxiliary forces are deployed there.
These circumstances allow the USA to gradually reduce its military presence on the southern flank of the European theater of operations and reorient its forces toward the Asia-Pacific region to contain China. In other words, Ukraine is already contributing to the realization of US geopolitical interests.
All this is confirmed by changes in the nature of the operational and combat training of NATO forces and the armed forces of Poland and the USA in the European theater of operations. In particular, NATO leadership calls the exercises taking place on the northern flank of the European theater of operations a response to increased military threats from Russia. And on the southern flank, they are described as part of the Alliance’s efforts to divert Russia’s attention and forces from the Baltic and Arctic regions. At this, the scale of US participation in exercises on the northern flank remains unchanged, while on the southern flank it is slightly decreasing. In this context, it is also worth noting the recent withdrawal of about 800 US Marines from Romania and Bulgaria.
Given the circumstances, Europe and the USA are greatly interested in maintaining a strong, independent, and European Ukraine, as well as in its integration into the Euro-Atlantic and European security system, and are putting this into practice. The main areas of such activity are:
inclusion of Ukraine in the strategic and operational plans of the US Armed Forces and NATO’s Joint Forces. As mentioned above, this is evidenced by the nature of their military exercises;
exchange of intelligence data. The USA and NATO provide Ukraine with strategic information about Russia’s plans and activities at the highest level, as well as operational and tactical data on Russian armed forces at the front and targets at the front and in the rear. For its part, Ukraine obviously shares information which is of interest to its Western partners.
deepening the integration of Ukraine’s and NATO’s air defense systems. The USA and NATO notify Ukraine of flights into its airspace and the flight routes of long-range (strategic) aircraft of the Russian Armed Forces from airfields and missile launches from areas beyond the reach of Ukraine’s radar systems and radio-technical reconnaissance capabilities. To obtain such data, the US and NATO use optical and radio reconnaissance satellites, as well as E-3A AWACS long-range radar detection aircraft. Ukraine notifies neighboring countries of the routes of Russian missiles and UAVs flying over its territory in their direction.
Besides, the issue of involving the air defense of Poland and Romania and their NATO partners to destroy Russian air attack capabilities over Ukrainian territory is being considered. So far, such plans remain unrealized, as NATO and its member states are trying to avoid direct involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine. However, further escalation of threats from Russia may force them to change their position.
Logistical Support for Ukraine. Poland, Romania, and, in fact, Hungary and Slovakia, are Ukraine’s operational and strategic rear. Specifically: Poland is home to the main hub through which weapons are supplied to Ukraine; Romania provides Ukraine with a safe route to maritime communications; Hungary and Slovakia are used to transit gas and electricity from Europe to Ukraine;
connecting Ukraine to the pan-European military mobility area, or the so-called “military Schengen”. This will enable NATO to speed up the process of providing military assistance to Ukraine if necessary.
The new EU Regulation on Military Mobility, which was submitted to the EU Council and the European Parliament on November 17, 2025, offers significant advantages to Ukraine, including the improvement of dual-use transport infrastructure, streamlining of rules for the transportation of military equipment, and border crossing procedures throughout Europe.
Such measures will facilitate the faster movement of troops and military equipment to the eastern borders of the EU and Ukraine, as well as strengthen the resilience of Ukraine’s logistical links with the European Union;
the establishment of joint production of weapons and military equipment. A wide range of such projects is already being implemented with Ukraine’s partners. According to the Danish initiative, some Ukrainian enterprises have been relocated to European countries and are operating independently or jointly with them. This allows Ukraine to increase the production of military equipment, develop new weapons using modern Western technologies, and protect industrial facilities from Russian attacks;
providing financial assistance to Ukraine in its military confrontation with Russia and strengthening its defense. Since the beginning of the war, the total amount of support provided by the European Union to Ukraine, together with military aid provided by EU member states, has amounted to EUR 66 billion. Financial support for Ukraine’s defense needs will continue both within the framework of the relevant EU funds and at the national level of the Organization’s member states.
The main one will be the aforementioned Security Action for Europe (SAFE) fund. It will allocate funds for the production and purchase of weapons for Ukraine and for the development of the Ukrainian defense industry. A preliminary agreement has been reached on the creation of a special Instrument to Support Ukraine, which provides for the allocation of $300 million for the above–mentioned needs in the period 2025-2027 as part of the European Defense Industry Program in the amount of EUR 1.5 billion.
Besides, funding for Ukraine’s defense needs will continue through the European Peace Fund. As before, the Fund’s resources will mainly be used to purchase ammunition for Ukraine and to train Ukrainian military personnel under the EU Military Assistance Mission to Ukraine (EUMAM) program. The EU Council has extended its mandate for another two years until November 15, 2026, with a budget allocation of EUR 409 million. Since the Mission was established in November 2022, 85,000 Ukrainian military personnel have completed the training course.
Income from Russian Central Bank funds frozen in the EU (currently only bank interest on these funds is being used) will also be allocated to support Ukraine. This remains problematic due to Belgium’s position, which requires the EU to guarantee the return of funds in case of a lawsuit by Russia. Despite the complexity of this issue, EU representatives hope that it will be possible to resolve it. The best option is considered to be a reparations loan, which would allow the use of income from Russian funds while formally retaining them in Russian ownership.
Individual European countries are also increasing their financial assistance to Ukraine. In particular, the government of Germany has allocated additional $3 billion to Ukraine for its defense needs.
Along with this, as part of determining security guarantees for Ukraine in the post-war period, a number of initiatives are being put forward that can be considered in the context of our country’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic and European security system. Among them are proposals regarding:
deployment of an international military mission on Ukrainian territory, consisting of units from the armed forces of Western and other sympathetic countries. Aviation support and logistics from neighboring European countries are also envisaged. However, the implementation of such measures is extremely problematic.
Of the Coalition of the Willing, which brings together about 30 countries, no more than ten are ready to send their troops to Ukraine. In particular, the list includes France, Great Britain, Türkiye, Estonia, and Latvia. All agree to do so only when the hostilities cease.
There are also countries that are ready to participate in air cover and sea operations. The USA also allows for this possibility. Romania agrees to provide its territory and military bases for the deployment of air and maritime support forces for the international military mission in Ukraine. Poland is already considered the most powerful hub through which ammunition and weapons are supplied to Ukraine. However, all this is not enough. According to expert estimates, the minimum number of international military personnel in Ukraine should be 30-40 thousand, and ideally up to 100 thousand. The countries mentioned cannot comprehensively provide such a number of personnel.
Besides, there is a problem with Russia. It does not agree with the deployment of Western military contingents on the territory of Ukraine and will consider them legitimate targets for strikes if they are deployed there without its consent. The reasons for this position are the same as its disagreement with Ukraine’s accession to NATO. Therefore, military contingents from Ukraine’s partner countries are unlikely to be deployed on its territory in the near future.
Extending Article 5 of the Washington Treaty on collective defense to Ukraine, but without granting it NATO membership. According to this approach, in case of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the member countries of the North Atlantic Alliance must decide within 24 hours how to provide assistance to Ukraine.
It is also proposed to extend to Ukraine Article 42.7 of the Treaty on European Union, which has similar content. This option is considered even better than the previous one, since Ukraine may still become a member of the EU in the foreseeable future.
However, it is unclear how Article 5 of the Washington Treaty will work without Ukraine’s membership in NATO. How and what decisions will be made, and through what mechanisms they will be implemented. The same applies to Article 42.7 of the EU Treaty.
However, in any case, Ukraine’s integration into the Euro-Atlantic and European security system will contribute to strengthening its defense and increase its capabilities in military confrontation with Russia, and in the future will serve as a reliable guarantee of our state’s security.
Thus:
The USA, NATO, and the EU have basically defined and agreed on the principles for building a new Euro-Atlantic and European security system, which is expected to increase their capabilities in countering military threats from Russia and China.
within this system, the USA will focus on containing China at the global level and in the Asia-Pacific region, while Europe will focus on countering Russia. At this, the USA will remain the main guarantor of Europe’s strategic security and will assist it in countering Russia in the European theater of operations;
according to this approach, the creation of a separate European army is not envisaged. The European component of NATO, with the support of the USA, will perform the functions of protecting Europe. In turn, the EU will assume most of the responsibility for the financial and economic support of European defense;
given the situation, the main actions to strengthen European security will focus on strengthening the protection and defense of NATO/EU’s eastern borders, improving the air defense system in terms of countering UAVs and operational-tactical missiles, increasing military mobility, and developing a system to counter hybrid warfare and cyber attacks from Russia;
at the same time, mechanisms for financing these measures have been adopted, including an increase in defense spending by NATO member states, the creation of special European funds, and the attraction of investment. These funds will also be used to provide financial assistance to Ukraine;
the new Euro-Atlantic and European security system will also apply to Ukraine, which plays a prominent role in the defense of Europe and effectively covers NATO’s southern flank. This will give Ukraine more reserves in its military confrontation with Russia, as well as security guarantees in the post-war period.
Institute for Global Politics
