Russia’s Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 As a Direct Challenge to the West, and Primarily to Europe
It seems that Putin decided to use military force to restore Russia’s authority and prestige on the international stage, as he saw no other way to do that. But in the fourth year of this war, it is already clear that the Russian president has obviously overestimated his strength and that his adventure will most likely end in defeat and another collapse of the Russian Federation.
Does Russia have a chance of winning the war against Ukraine, which is supported by the world’s leading powers? The answer to this question is obviously no.
The political, military-technical, financial and economic potential of the anti-Putin coalition countries is much greater than that of the RF, which already prevents Putin from dominating the war with Ukraine. As for human resources, the Russians do not have that many, especially considering that 140 million people live in a huge territory of more than 17 million square kilometres.
Of course, Ukraine has much fewer human resources, but conquering foreign states and peoples with a larger number of soldiers was possible in the pre-industrial era, as Genghis Khan did. In the age of advanced technology, war is won not by those who organise “meat assaults” on the front line, but by those who have a strong financial and economic base, modern military equipment and military personnel trained to use it properly.
A striking confirmation of this is the operations of the Western Coalition forces led by the United States after Saddam Hussein’s Iraqi troops’ invasion of Kuwait. The same can be said about Israel, which, thanks to advanced military technology, ensures its survival despite being completely surrounded by hostile neighbours.
In the long term, Russia’s defeat is also determined by a number of geopolitical factors. First and foremost, it should be noted that Europe is not interested in Ukraine’s defeat and the strengthening of an aggressive and unpredictable Russia at its expense.
This means that military and financial-economic assistance to Ukraine from European countries will continue and, if necessary, intensify.
As for China, today it is helping Russia only to prevent its defeat, as this would again lead to the complete domination of the West in the international arena, which is no longer acceptable to the PRC. At the same time, China will certainly take advantage of Russia’s weakening in the war with Ukraine and, most likely, after Russia’s defeat in this war, will begin to reclaim the Chinese territories that were once captured by the Russian Empire.
Türkiye, which has been competing with Russia in the Caucasus and Central Asia for many centuries, will not stand aside from these global political shifts.
It is difficult to tell exactly when Russia will collapse, but given the objective factors, it can already be said that after its defeat in the war with Ukraine and the anti-Putin coalition states, the collapse of the RF will be inevitable, which will entail a number of important geopolitical shifts and changes. This will undoubtedly have a significant impact on socio-political processes not only on the European continent, but throughout the world, and therefore we all need to prepare now for the new challenges and threats that humanity may face in the near future.
Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute for Global Politics.
