For nearly three years, the Russian-Ukrainian war has raged on
For nearly three years, the Russian-Ukrainian war has raged on, and it is now beyond doubt that Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was a reckless misadventure doomed to failure from the outset.
President Putin has sacrificed hundreds of thousands of lives on both sides, achieving no tangible gains for Russia. Moreover, his actions have eroded trust in the United Nations and dismantled the existing framework of international security, necessitating its re-evaluation and the development of new, more effective mechanisms for ensuring global peace and security.In these circumstances, new military-political alliances are likely to emerge, prioritising national interests above all. A review of recent developments strongly suggests that the primary motive behind Russia’s aggression was the ambition of its political elites to restore the country’s imperial status. This was pursued through a systematic strategy aimed at recruiting potential allies and neutralising perceived competitors.
Putin’s campaign to recruit agents of influence was multifaceted, targeting even leaders within the European Union. As a result, figures such as Slovakia’s Robert Fico and Hungary’s Viktor Orbán have become known for their openly pro-Russian stances. In Germany, Russia employed more nuanced tactics. Following the Federal Republic’s decision to dismantle its nuclear energy sector, its economy became wholly reliant on Russian gas. This dependency likely explains why Angela Merkel aligned with Moscow in key instances, including blocking Ukraine’s NATO membership.
Today, Germany lacks a fully operational army—a direct consequence of Merkel’s policies and those of her successors. The security of Germany, and indeed much of the EU, now rests entirely on the goodwill of the United States.
As for Russia, it is evident that it will not voluntarily abandon its strategic goals. The Kremlin will continue its aggressive foreign policy aimed at either restoring the old Russian empire or constructing a new one. Alarmingly, the governance model of this envisioned empire bears a resemblance to North Korea, which perhaps explains why Putin has forged a strategic alliance with Pyongyang. North Korea has already dispatched troops to support Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Disrupting Russia’s imperial ambitions will require the formation of a new military-political alliance comprised of nations unwilling to fall under Moscow’s influence or become puppets of Putin. Globally, the United States—especially under the Republican Party, now holding significant power after recent elections—will oppose the re-emergence of a Russian empire.The United Kingdom, another longstanding rival of Russia, shares no interest in Moscow’s resurgence at Ukraine’s expense. Similarly, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and the Scandinavian countries are determined to halt Russian expansionism. Given this alignment of interests, it is expected that after January 20, when Donald Trump officially assumes office, the United States will adopt a more proactive role in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict. The UK’s stance towards Russia must also become more resolute.
The shared security interests of the US, UK, Ukraine, Poland, the Baltic states, and the Scandinavian countries could lay the groundwork for a new military-political alliance. Belarus, with its population culturally closer to the West than to Russia, would also be a logical candidate for membership.
Such an alliance could prove more agile, effective, and responsive than NATO, providing its members with stronger guarantees against external aggression and safeguarding their security, independence, and sovereignty.
Oleh Bereziuk
Institute for Global Politics
Institute for Global Politics
