The War Between Russia and Ukraine Will Continue to the Finish
The fact is that the parties to this armed conflict have completely opposite interests, and it is unlikely that any compromise solution can be found. In this war, the Russian Federation is fighting to regain its imperial status, while Ukraine is fighting for the final liberation from colonial dependence.
Russia began to make true its imperial ambitions with the annexation of Belarus, where today the government of that country, headed by its President Aleksandr Lukashenko, plays just a nominal role. In February 2022, it was Ukraine’s turn, but the fierce resistance of Ukrainians ruined all of Putin’s plans.
It is now clear that Ukraine and Russia have become irreconcilable enemies for many years to come, and each side is trying to secure victory by attracting as many partners and allies as possible. It is known that North Korea is already almost openly fighting on Russia’s side. Until recently, Iran also provided substantial military and technical assistance to it, but after Israel and the United States struck it, Iran’s assistance to Russia has become much more modest.
It’s no secret that Ukraine is supported by the Western Coalition, with the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, and France playing a key role. Given the economic and military-technical potential of those countries, there is every reason to believe that the West will not allow Ukraine to be defeated, and therefore this war cannot end in Russia’s favor.
Most likely, Russia’s defeat in the war with Ukraine will lead to the collapse of the Russian Federation. We should not rule out that the process of its disintegration will begin in the North Caucasus. Possibly, the current Kaliningrad region will also want to secede from Russia and join one of the Western countries. In turn, Kursk and Voronezh regions, as well as the Kuban, where a significant number of ethnic Ukrainians now live, could join Ukraine. Finland will also have a chance to regain Karelia. Moldova, Georgia, and Kazakhstan will be able to restore their territorial integrity. Obviously, Japan and China will claim a part of Russia’s territory, as they have repeatedly stated the need to restore historical justice and return the territories that once belonged to them.
The fourth year of the Russian-Ukrainian war shows that the top military and political leadership of the Russian Federation, when deciding on a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, miscalculated its forces and made a strategic mistake that will certainly have grave consequences for all Russians. Now it is only a matter of time when the Russian Federation will be defeated in this war, disintegrate and finally disappear from the political map of the world.
Oleh Bereziuk,
Institute of Global Politics.
