Trump’s move to side with Russia?
It is unlikely that anything Donald Trump does will benefit the United States. He has essentially declared a trade war on Canada, Mexico, and China. These countries are expected to retaliate against the US.
Trump’s sudden move to side with Russia in the Russia-Ukraine armed conflict has not gone unnoticed by European leaders. As a result, the EU is now seriously discussing the NATO crisis and the need to create an alternative European security system. This time, such an initiative is likely to gain momentum, as the U.S. is no longer a reliable partner, and Russia’s aggressive foreign policy requires a quick and adequate response.
Ukraine, having almost completely lost U.S. support, can preserve its independence and sovereignty only by joining the new European defense alliance. Europe, in turn, is directly interested in integrating Ukraine into its structures, as Ukraine’s defeat in the war against Russia will create new challenges and security threats. How events will unfold is still now beginning to form the outlines of future military-political alliances and blocs.
The trade wars launched by Trump on the American continent could eventually lead to the isolation of the US with devastating and unpredictable consequences for the global economy. The loss of American global leadership combined with Russia’s aggressive foreign policy is already pushing Europe to create its own security system with Germany, France, the UK, Italy, the Scandinavian countries and Ukraine playing key roles.
Russia’s defeat in the war against Ukraine will likely lead to a deep political crisis and the breakup of the Russian Federation into several new state entities. In the Middle East, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia will compete fiercely for influence, although the trajectory in the region remains unclear. In the Far East, China is expected to maintain its dominance, although it will face significant competition. Meanwhile, the future of Africa and South America is likely to remain ambiguous.
In conclusion, the era of Pax Americana and relative stability has come to an end. The world now stands on the brink of major social upheavals and tectonic shifts in world politics, international security and law.
Oleh Bereziuk
Institute of World Politics
