The USA Is Preparing a Military Operation in Venezuela. The Reason for This Measure and Its Consequences for Ukraine.
US President Donald Trump seeks to restore the USA’s access to Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are the largest in the world;
once he achieves his goal, he will be able to exert greater influence on global oil prices. As a result, he will be able to lower them and prevent Russia from receiving oil revenues;
in this way, Trump will weaken Russia as the main military adversary of the USA by removing it as a competitor from the global oil market. Besides, Russia will lose its ability to continue the war against Ukraine;
as part of the implementation of these plans, the USA is trying to remove the ruling regime in Venezuela, led by Maduro, from power. To this end, preparations are underway for a military operation in Venezuela under the pretext of countering drug production on its territory.
Russia’s main source of income, which allows it to continue the war against Ukraine and threaten the West, remains its exports of oil and petroleum products. Therefore, eliminating such opportunities for the RF is one of the main tasks of our state and its partners.
To this end, Ukraine is carrying out effective missile and drone strikes on Russia’s oil refining infrastructure. European Union sanctions are also significantly limiting the aggressor’s oil revenues.
The USA has been even more effective in lowering global oil prices. They are mainly causing damage to the RF’s oil sector and its state budget. And in October this year, the USA supplemented the EU sanctions against Russia’s oil and gas sector with sanctions against its oil companies LUKOIL and “Rosneft”. However, the USA is doing this not so much in the interests of Ukraine as in its own interests. The main goal is to radically weaken Russia as the main military adversary of the USA and squeeze it out of the global energy market. In this way, the USA will not only ensure its security, but will also have significantly higher revenues than from joint economic projects with Russia.
Therefore, the USA will in any case try to implement its plans related to Russia, including through qualitatively new military measures. Today, America has already significantly replaced Russia in the European oil and gas market and taken control of it. Once the USA achieves its desired outcome, it will focus its efforts on pushing Russia out of the global energy market.
To this end, the USA is attempting to gain access to Venezuela’s oil reserves, which are considered the largest in the world. This will not only significantly increase US revenues from oil exports, but will also make it the world’s leading exporter of hydrocarbons. Besides, it will significantly strengthen its international influence and enable it to control the global oil market and its prices.
As a result, the USA will be able to reduce the price of oil, which will reduce Russia’s budget revenues and prevent it from continuing its war against Ukraine and opposing the West. Moreover, the USA will be able to set oil prices below the cost of hydrocarbon production in Russia, which will lead to an economic crisis and a real threat of collapse. After all, almost half of Russian oil companies are already unprofitable.
To implement these plans, the USA intends to overthrow the ruling regime in Venezuela, led by N. Maduro, who pursues an anti-American policy, and replace it with a pro-American opposition. To justify its intentions, Washington accuses Maduro of usurping power, suppressing democracy, and being involved with the Cartel de los Soles drug cartel. In view of this, the USA does not recognize him as the President of Venezuela (the results of the 2024 elections are considered rigged) and has announced a $50 million reward for information that would lead to his arrest. At the same time, the Venezuelan opposition is being provided with financial, political, and informational support.
The USA is backing up these intentions by preparing for a possible military operation to forcibly remove Maduro’s regime under the pretext of fighting production of drugs in Venezuela and their smuggling to the USA. In October this year, Donald Trump addressed Congress with a message stating that “the United States is in a state of armed conflict with drug cartels”. He called illegal drug trafficking from Venezuela to America a direct threat to the USA, requiring an appropriate response. According to Trump, he is relying on the same legal provisions used by the Bush administration when the war on terrorism was declared after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, to counter this threat. Therefore, his measures do not require separate approval by the US Congress. In line with this approach, Trump has allowed the CIA to carry out special operations on Venezuelan territory, again on the grounds of fighting drug production in Venezuela.
At the same time, according to American experts, American special forces units may be assisting the Venezuelan opposition in its actions against the Maduro regime, organizing sabotage against Venezuelan security forces, and targeting American missiles and aircraft. In addition to CIA units, US Special Operations Forces units may also be operating in Venezuela.
Currently, the merchant ship MV Ocean Trader, converted into a covert special operations support base, is in the Caribbean Sea. It can accommodate helicopters, boats, and UAVs. And in Trinidad and Tobago, there are MH-6M Little Birds military helicopters used by special forces. At the same time, reconnaissance on Venezuela has been stepped up, using MQ-9 Reaper UAVs from Puerto Rico airport and P-8 Poseidon aircraft.
However, the most telling sign is that the USA has concentrated a powerful naval group near Venezuela, which far exceeds the needs of countering drug trafficking. Today, this is the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group Ford, as well as the cruiser USS Lake Erie with Aegis guided missile weapons (GMW), three destroyers with GMW USS Gravely, USS Jason Dunham, and USS Sampson, and three amphibious assault ships USS Iwo Jima, USS San Antonio, and USS Fort Lauderdale. There are up to 90 aircraft and helicopters on board the aircraft carrier. In September this year, F-35 aircraft were deployed to Puerto Rico. In addition, at least two submarines with cruise missiles on board entered the Caribbean Sea.
All these forces are conducting active military exercises near Venezuela, including those that are openly demonstrative in nature. This mainly concerns combat training exercises involving ships and aircraft, during which strikes on ground targets are practiced. American strategic aircraft are also flying close to Venezuela.
And in October this year, a naval blockade of Venezuela effectively began, in the form of the destruction of ships and boats used by smugglers to transport drugs. The air force has already destroyed more than ten such targets and eliminated more than 60 of their crew members.
All this is accompanied by an active information campaign to prepare public opinion for a possible military operation in Venezuela. Donald Trump and members of his administration, representatives of the Republican Party, and various experts are promoting the idea that drug trafficking poses a critical threat to the security of America and its citizens. At the same time, US actions against drug cartels are being compared to the global war on terrorism against Al-Qaeda, ISIS, and other similar organizations. And to make this more obvious, the Cartel de los Soles has been added by the United States to the list of global terrorist organizations.
Given the experience of US military operations against other countries, Washington may issue an ultimatum to Maduro before the start of hostilities, demanding his voluntary resignation and the holding of elections under the control of the international community. If he refuses, the USA will begin missile and bomb strikes on military, administrative, economic, and infrastructure targets in Venezuela. To this end, ships, submarines, and tactical aircraft located near Venezuela will be used. Cruise missiles may also be launched from strategic aircraft.
At the first stage, American troops will not enter Venezuela. Only CIA and Special Operations Forces units already present in the country will carry out tasks on its territory. This will allow the USA to quickly disrupt Venezuela’s military, economic, and political systems, as the country will be unable to offer long-term resistance. According to experts, this will lead to a split in Maduro’s environment and cause him to lose control of the situation in the country. At this, part of the country’s armed forces may also turn against him. In such a situation, the USA will provide assistance to the Venezuelan opposition in order to finally overthrow Maduro’s regime and seize power in the country. If necessary, US Marine Corps units may be sent to Venezuela to stabilize the situation in the country and ensure that elections are held and a new Venezuelan government is formed.
The USA’s actions are quite obvious and are seen by Maduro’s regime as a direct threat to his power. The Venezuelan leadership has officially accused the USA of planning such an attack and has begun to prepare for it.
For example, the combat readiness of the country’s armed forces has been increased, and the deployment of paramilitary formations similar to a people’s militia has begun. According to the Venezuelan leadership, more than a million people could be recruited into the militia. In addition, Maduro has sought support from Russia, China, and Iraq.
In October this year, he sent a letter to President of the RF Putin asking for help in strengthening Venezuela’s air defense system, including the restoration of several Su-30 fighter jets and the modernization of anti-aircraft missile systems and radar stations purchased from Russia in the past. He also called on Chinese leader Xi Jinping to expand bilateral military cooperation in order to deter the USA. Chinese companies are currently fulfilling Venezuela’s orders for the production of radar stations.
Both Russia and China are interested in developing cooperation with Venezuela for political and economic reasons. With Russia in confrontation with the West and China in geopolitical confrontation with the USA, they are using Venezuela to promote their interests in Central America, which is strategically important for Washington. Russia and China also seek to maintain their access to Venezuelan oil. Russian and Chinese oil companies are already operating there. Therefore, the fall of Maduro’s regime in Venezuela will be a significant blow to them. Besides, it will also weaken Cuba, Russia’s long-time ally. As a result, it will lose its position in that part of the world. However, the main problem for Cuba will be that the USA will have a dominant influence on the global oil market. And they will use this against Russia. That is why Moscow is demonstratively supporting Venezuela in order to prevent this from happening.
In May this year, an agreement between Russia and Venezuela on strategic partnership and cooperation was signed and ratified in October. The document does not contain any military component, but its content is essentially anti-American.
However, in reality, Russia is unlikely to be able to provide real assistance to Venezuela if the USA does indeed launch the aforementioned military operation. This is evidenced by the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities (June this year). Despite the fact that Russia and Iran also signed a strategic partnership agreement, Russia only supported it virtually in the form of statements condemning the actions of the USA and Israel. China traditionally takes a similar position, never daring to enter into conflict with the USA over Venezuela.
Therefore, the USA is highly likely to achieve its goals regarding Venezuela. This could happen in different ways: by forcing the country’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro, to resign or by overthrowing his regime through special or military actions. However, the USA will still have access to Venezuelan oil. It will then export it to foreign markets, which will lower global energy prices. As a result, Russia will lose its oil revenues, which will prevent it from continuing its war against Ukraine. Russia will then find itself in a critical economic crisis and face a real threat of disintegration as a single, unified state.
At the same time, a US military operation in Venezuela could also have negative consequences for Ukraine. Russia will most likely use this fact to justify its aggression against our state. Therefore, Ukraine must respond politically and informationally.
Yurii Ilchenko,
Institute for Global Politics
(Image generated by neural network)
